英伟达估值与市场地位 - 公司当前估值过高 市盈率超过40倍 股价较4月低点已翻倍至180美元/股 [1][2][14] - 标普500指数中权重达8% 远超历史最高水平(4.1%) 若股价再翻倍将占16% [8][11][15] - 股价处于超买状态 交易价格远高于50日(163美元)和200日(136美元)移动均线 [2] 竞争格局变化 - 科技巨头自研芯片形成威胁：谷歌TPU/Trillium/Ironwood(2024-2025) 微软Azure Maia/Cobalt 亚马逊Trainium/Inferentia [5][6][7] - 新兴竞争者包括：Cerebras Systems(晶圆级引擎) Tenstorrent(Jim Keller领导) Graphcore(IPU架构) [7][8] - 历史显示芯片行业周期性明显 AMD/英特尔都经历过从巅峰跌落 [9][14] 技术面与市场风险 - 股价逼近历史高点 财报后可能出现"利好出尽"回调 二季度预期EPS仅0.98美元 [13][14] - 标普500指数前十大持仓中科技股权重达38.45% 市场集中度风险显著提升 [13] - 芯片股在标普500权重历史中表现不稳定 仅英特尔和英伟达曾进入前十 [10][15] 行业发展对比 - 软件公司(如微软)因业务多元化和弱周期性 在标普500中表现更稳定 [10] - 2000年科技股首次多只进入前十时 半导体公司占比仅1.7%-2.4% [10] - 2025年前十大股票中有4只占比超6% 反映科技行业集中度过高 [10]

Despite there being no signs of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom slowing down, AI stocks writ large have been hammered in 2025 due to the Trump Administration's tariff threats and policies.AI stocks have obviously risen significantly over the past two years, so they did come into the year at relatively high valuations. And the threat of economic recession has legitimately called into question the massive AI investments forecasted by leading tech companies earlier this year.Fortunately, on Wednesday, Ap ...