核心观点 - 顺丰控股通过长期员工激励计划和企业文化驱动业绩增长 强调人才是核心资产而非成本 [3][5][13] - 公司2025年上半年营收1468.58亿元同比增长9.26% 净利润57.38亿元同比增长19.37% [3] - 速运物流业务件量达78.5亿票同比增长25.7% 远超行业19.3%的平均增速 [3] 战略方向 - 公司采取"聚势"与"拓新"双战略：聚势指组织升级激活全员势能 拓新指渗透细分场景拓展业务边界 [5] - 即时配送收入同比增长38.86% 体现新场景拓展成效 [5] - 通过国际化布局和多行业渗透实现超级巨头转型 [3][9] 人才激励措施 - 推出9年期"共同成长持股计划"：控股股东无偿赠与不超过2亿股A股 员工无需出资 [3][5] - 计划覆盖7177名核心管理人员及骨干 实现长期价值绑定 [5] - 董事长王卫以个人名义向10年以上老员工发放现金感谢金 [3][6] 企业文化 - 企业文化升级为"以客为先""以诚为道""以爱为本" 其中"以爱为本"聚焦内部员工关怀 [12] - 连续16年（2009-2024）保持中国快递服务客户满意度第一 [9] - 推行员工可持续发展保障体系 包括多样激励制度 [6] 管理哲学 - 建立"激励-增长-激励"正向循环：通过员工激励提升服务质量 驱动客户认可与企业增长 [12][13] - 借鉴华为股权激励与NatureSweet员工认可模式 保持低离职率 [7] - 实践松下"人才水坝"理念 通过人才储备应对行业周期变化 [9] 行业地位 - 从物流巨头发展为多行业覆盖的超级巨头 [3] - 在物流行业增速放缓背景下实现超行业平均增长 [3][9] - 代表中国企业从人口红利向人才红利转型的趋势 [13]

投资评级 - 维持"买入"评级 [1][6] 核心观点 - 公司2025年上半年业绩稳健增长 营业收入1468.58亿元同比+9.26% 归母净利润57.38亿元同比+19.37% [1] - 业务量快速增长至78.5亿票同比+25.7% 带动速运物流业务收入1093亿元同比+10.4% 供应链及国际业务收入342亿元同比+9.7% [2] - 公司自由现金流同比增长6.29%至84.36亿元 中期现金分红比例达40% [4] - 董事长提议设立"共同成长"持股计划 拟无偿赠与不超过2亿股A股股票约占总股本4% [5] 财务表现 - 25H1归母净利率3.91%同比提升0.33pct 扣非归母净利率3.10%同比提升0.01pct [2] - Q2归母净利率4.55%同比提升0.36pct 非经常性损益包含REIT相关股权处置收益7.78亿元（税后5.9亿元） [2] - 预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为119.11亿元/142.46亿元/168.34亿元 同比增速17.1%/19.6%/18.2% [6] - 对应市盈率20.5倍/17.1倍/14.5倍（2025年8月28日收盘价） [6] 业务分部表现 - 速运及大件分部净利润53.85亿元同比+12.28% 受益业务规模增长和精益管理 [3] - 同城即时配送分部净利润1.37亿元同比大幅增长120.43% 受益行业需求增加和规模效益 [3] - 供应链及国际分部净亏损2.96亿元 较去年同期减亏48.47% 剔除KEX亏损4.3亿元及KLN并购利息2.9亿元影响后净利润4.3亿元同比+178% [3] 现金流与股东回报 - 经营性现金流净额129.37亿元 资本开支41.38亿元同比-18.46% [4] - 2025年中期现金分红金额23.2亿元 分红比例40% [4] - 根据2024-2028年股东回报规划 现金分红比例将在2023年度基础上稳步提高 [4] 战略举措 - "共同成长"持股计划分9个年度授予 通过合伙机制推动"经理人"向"合伙人"转变 [5] - 鄂州枢纽产能利用率提升、经济业务服务品质提升、大件业务融通等因素将持续提升盈利能力 [3]

物流板块整体表现 - 物流板块较上一交易日下跌4.05% 领跌个股为顺丰控股(-7.91%) 圆通速递(-7.12%) 申通快递(-5.38%) 韵达股份(-5.33%) [1][2] - 当日上证指数上涨0.37%至3857.93点 深证成指上涨0.99%至12696.15点 物流板块表现显著弱于大盘 [1] 个股涨跌情况 - 涨幅前列个股包括长久物流(+6.24%至9.36元) 万林物流(+5.68%至5.77元) *ST原尚(+3.01%至18.81元) 海程邦达(+2.95%至13.95元) [1] - 主力资金净流入前十个股中 万林物流获3702.23万元主力净流入(占比17.13%) 长久物流获3235.78万元主力净流入(占比9.79%) 中储股份虽股价上涨2.45%但遭主力净流出4704.10万元 [1][3] 资金流向分析 - 物流板块整体主力资金净流出10.8亿元 游资资金净流入4.19亿元 散户资金净流入6.61亿元 [2] - 东航物流获主力净流入2559.71万元(占比10.55%) 同时获游资净流入1549.66万元(占比6.39%) 显示机构资金关注度较高 [3] - 密尔克卫获主力净流入2008.50万元(占比12.42%) 海程邦达获主力净流入1084.00万元(占比10.26%) 资金集中流向细分领域龙头 [3]

A股8月整体表现 - 三大指数月线均大涨 沪指站上3800点创10年新高 累计涨幅近8% 深证成指累计涨幅超15% 创业板指累计涨超24% 科创50指数累计涨28% 北证50指数累计涨超10% [2] - 港股市场在接连调整后有所反弹 恒生指数盘中上涨超1% 恒生科技指数盘中上涨超1.6% [2] 个股业绩对股价影响 - 格力电器第二季度营业总收入599.8亿元 同比下滑12.11% 归母净利润85.08亿元 同比下滑10.07% 股价盘中大跌近7% [4] - 顺丰控股上半年营收1468.58亿元 同比增长9.26% 归母净利润57.38亿元 同比增长19.37% 但股价盘中最大跌幅超9% [6][8] - 先导智能上半年营业收入66.10亿元 同比增长14.92% 归母净利润7.40亿元 同比增长61.19% 第二季度营业收入35.12亿元 同比增长43.85% 第二季度归母净利润3.75亿元 同比增长456.29% 股价实现20%涨停 [9][12][13] - 广深铁路上半年营业收入139.7亿元 同比上升8.1% 归母净利润11.1亿元 同比上升21.6% 第二季度营业收入70.7亿元 同比上升11.8% 第二季度归母净利润6.41亿元 同比上升75.4% 股价实现10%涨停 [9] 锂电池板块表现 - 锂电池指数上涨3.55%至7227.40点 多只个股涨停 先导智能涨20.01% 杭可科技涨20.00% 德瑞锂电涨19.11% 中科电气涨14.59% 贝特瑞涨13.58% 宁德时代涨10.37% 国轩高科涨10.02% 璞泰来涨10.01% [11][14] - 板块上涨受多重因素驱动 新能源汽车国内渗透率持续保持在50%以上 政策补贴和"金九银十"销售旺季有望带来业绩增长 固态电池逐步进入量产阶段 规划2026年小批量试产 2027年实现量产 "反内卷"政策持续发挥正面作用 遏制无序扩张和恶性竞争 推动市场回归理性 [15] 创新药板块反弹 - CRO指数上涨3.76%至3116.35点 多只个股上涨 皓元医药涨13.70% 毕得医药涨10.43% 美迪西涨8.96% 药明康德涨7.95% 成都先导涨7.93% [17] - 创新药行业进入全面收获时代 中国创新药在全球供给端持续提供产能 管线数量跃居世界首位 在ADC、双/多抗等多个领域具备技术优势 全球最快/最优分子持续涌现 近年来密集吸引海外药企合作 迎来License out出海浪潮 [18]

全球宏观经济与政策 - 美国第二季度GDP增速从初值3.0%上修至3.3%，主要受企业投资（增速5.7%）和贸易推动[1][8][12] - 美联储理事沃勒预计9月降息25个基点，未来三至六个月将进一步降息，取决于数据表现[12] - 美国贸易代表办公室延长对华301条款关税的部分豁免至11月29日[12] 中国股市表现 - 上证指数涨1.14%报3843.6点，深证成指涨2.25%，创业板指涨3.82%，TMT板块热度持续，半导体领涨[1] - 香港恒生指数收盘跌0.81%报24998.82点，恒生科技指数跌0.94%，恒生中国企业指数跌1.15%[1] - 港股大盘成交额3914.883亿港元，半导体走强，油气股活跃，医疗保健业继续回调[1] 企业业绩与IPO动态 - 中芯国际中期纯利升35.6%至3.21亿美元，收入增22%至44.56亿美元[13] - 安得智联递交港上市申请，上半年收入108.85亿元人民币，按年增长20.23%[10] - 奇瑞汽车拟发行不超过6.99亿股境外上市普通股，计划在港交所挂牌上市[10] 行业与板块动向 - 中国将加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动老旧小区改造，更好满足住房需求[8][12] - 半导体板块表现强劲，中芯国际和华虹半导体分别上涨8.44%和10.76%[13][17] - 激光雷达厂商图达通寻求通过SPAC上市，首季度亏损收窄至1481.3万美元[10] 国际市场与数据 - 美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.16%，标普500指数涨0.32%，纳指涨0.53%[1] - 欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一，法国财长称该国并未陷入金融危机[12] - 美国7月新建住宅销量年率为652k，高于预期的627k[16]

核心财务表现 - 2025年上半年营收1468.58亿元同比增长9.26% [1][2] - 归母净利润57.38亿元同比增长19.37% [1][2] - 每股收益1.16元同比增长16% [1] - 归母净利润率提升至3.9%较上年同期提高0.3个百分点 [2] - 自由现金流量净额87.4亿元同比提升6.1% [2] 速运物流业务 - 业务件量达78.5亿票同比增幅25.7%超行业平均增速19.3% [2] - 业务收入1093亿元同比增长10.4% [3] - 单月业务量增幅逐月提升 7月达33.69%远超行业15.1%平均增速 [2] - 连续16年蝉联快递服务公众满意度第一 [3] 新业务发展 - 快运业务收入195.7亿元同比增长11.5% [4] - 供应链及国际业务营收342.3亿元同比增加9.7% [4] - 海外仓运营面积超250万平方米 [4] - 与超95%财富中国500强企业合作 国际产品服务覆盖超60%头部客户 [4] 全球枢纽建设 - 鄂州货运枢纽开通国内航线59条国际航线19条 [5] - 构建"轴辐式空网+多式联运+智慧物流"体系 [5] - 跨境电商综合试验区正式启用 [5] 股东回报与人才激励 - 拟每10股派发现金红利4.6元 中期分红金额23.2亿元占净利润40% [6] - 推出9年期"共同成长持股计划" 控股股东无偿赠与不超2亿股A股 [1] - 总裁王卫向服务超10年员工发放个人感谢金 [1]

记者从深圳物流与供应链管理协会获悉，第19届中国（深圳）国际物流与供应链博览会（以下简称"中国物博会"）将于9月24日-26日在深圳会展中心（福 田）举行。本届展会以"拥抱大航海时代，铸立新商域魂魄"为主题，将以13万+平方米展区、60个+国家与地区的2200家+展商、30万+人次专业观众的规 模，云集全球港口航运、航空货运、公铁路运输等各物流渠道的全球TOP企业，全面展示物流与供应链领域的新思想、新观点、新趋势、新科技、新模式、 新市场、新需求。 国内展商品牌交织如锦如绣 郑艳玲介绍，在国内展商方面，连续参展十年以上的企业鳞次栉比。展商地域覆盖广泛，来自全国26个省、自治区、直辖市及香港特别行政区。200家企业 组成的沪上强军凸显了上海作为全球物流大枢纽超强物流企业大阵容。浙江、山东、江苏军团气势恢宏，浙江有10个城市参展，青岛展商数量较2024年大幅 增长70%。 新疆、内蒙古以及黑龙江、广西等沿边省份的参展企业数量增长显著，表现十分突出。以满洲里为例，仅该市就有30余家参展商强势亮相。国内的顺丰、深 圳机场、盐田港、盐田国际、招商港务、深国际、南方航空、东方嘉盛、越海、大洋、德坤、泛亚国际等众多知名企业 ...

调研概况 - 8月28日共62家公司被机构调研 其中基金参与50家公司的调研活动[1] - 10家以上基金扎堆调研公司共10家[1] - 迈瑞医疗最受关注 参与调研基金达65家 海创药业和巨人网络均获26家基金调研[1] 板块分布 - 基金调研公司中深市主板16家 创业板28家 沪市主板1家 科创板4家 北交所1家[1] - 医药生物行业最多共9家 电子行业7家 计算机行业4家[1] 市值分布 - 总市值500亿元以上公司共4家 包括迈瑞医疗和顺丰控股等千亿级公司[1] - 总市值不足100亿元公司共29家 包括德瑞锂电 英华特 富邦科技等[1] 市场表现 - 近5日28只基金调研股上涨 熵基科技涨17.08% 英华特涨14.27% 民爆光电涨11.83%[2] - 22只下跌 瑞迈特跌9.51% 恒帅股份跌8.58% 海泰新光跌6.79%[2] 资金流向 - 近5日17只基金调研股资金净流入 兴蓉环境净流入1.31亿元居首[2] - 顺丰控股净流入6378.46万元 云图控股净流入4104.52万元[2] 业绩表现 - 50家基金调研公司已公布半年报 南极光净利润同比增982.43%[2] - 完美世界净利润同比增384.52%[2] 重点公司调研情况 - 迈瑞医疗(医药生物)获65家基金调研 收盘价247.08元 近5日涨0.56%[2] - 海创药业(医药生物)获26家基金调研 收盘价58.18元 近5日跌5.23%[2] - 巨人网络(传媒)获26家基金调研 收盘价30.60元 近5日涨2.00%[2] - 银轮股份(汽车)获22家基金调研 收盘价38.94元 近5日涨4.73%[2] - 飞凯材料(电子)获18家基金调研 收盘价24.07元 近5日涨4.11%[2]

涉及的公司与行业 * 公司：顺丰控股 (S.F. Holding, 002352.SZ/6936.HK) 与 嘉里物流 (Kerry Logistics, 0636.HK) [1] * 行业：综合物流、快递、货运代理、供应链管理 [1][9] 核心观点与论据 顺丰控股 (S.F. Holding) 2Q25 业绩与展望 * **收入符合预期，利润低于预期**：2Q25 收入同比增长 11% 至 770.08 亿人民币，符合预期，但剔除 10 亿人民币投资利得后的税前净利润为 25.77 亿人民币，低于高盛预期 13%，同比下降 3% [1][14] * **灵活定价策略推动市场份额增长**：为应对竞争，公司采取灵活定价策略，1H25 时效快递业务收入增长 7%，整体包裹量增长加速至 19% 同比，市场份额从 2H24 的 7.4% 扩大至 1H25 的 8.2% [2] * **利润率短期承压，长期改善可期**：2Q25 毛利率为 13.1% (低于高盛预期的 14.6%)，EBIT 利润率为 5.1% (低于高盛预期的 6.0%)，主因灵活定价策略，但运营效率提升部分抵消了影响；公司计划继续投资提升服务质量并维持灵活定价，预计短期毛利率仍有压力，但对 2026 年基于扩大的业务规模实现利润率改善充满信心 [3] * **供应链与国际业务韧性增长**：1H25 供应链与国际业务收入同比增长 10% (但低于高盛预期 2%)，尽管在关税不确定性下增长较 2H24 放缓，但该业务在中国企业出海的大趋势下展现韧性，公司拥有 107 架全货机、79 个清关服务口岸等增强的跨境多式联运能力；高盛预计其 2025 年该业务收入将增长 10% [4][9] * **强劲现金流支持股东回报**：公司宣布派发 25 亿人民币中期股息，派息率为 40%；1H25 资本开支（不含股权投资）同比下降 24% 至 42 亿人民币 (占总收入 2.9%，去年同期为 4.1%)，因鄂州航空货运枢纽等主要投资项目已于 2023 年基本完成；管理层预计 2025 年绝对资本开支将与 2024 年持平 (<100 亿人民币) [10] * **推出长期员工持股计划**：公司推出为期 9 年的“共同成长”员工持股计划，控股股东将无偿捐赠不超过 2 亿股 A 股 (约占已发行股本的 4%) [11] * **目标价与评级**：维持对顺丰 A/H 股的“买入”评级，A 股 12 个月目标价维持 57 元人民币 (基于 8 倍 2025 年 EV/EBITDA)，H 股目标价从 47 港元上调至 52 港元 (基于 7 倍 2025 年 EV/EBITDA，因 A/H 股折价收窄) [12] 嘉里物流 (Kerry Logistics) 展望与风险 * **评级与目标价**：维持对嘉里物流的“中性”评级，基于 SOTP 的 12 个月目标价从 8.3 港元上调至 9.0 港元，主要风险包括货运代理费率及地缘政治不确定性 [13] * **业绩预测调整**：基于 1H25 业绩，将 2025-27E 收入预测上调 6%，现预计 FY25/26E 收入同比增长 3%/3%，并将 2025-27E 核心净利润预测微调 4%-5%，因国际货运代理利润超预期 [28][29] * **关键风险**：包括顺丰与嘉里整合加速带来的利润率改善、全球贸易和商业活动强于预期、出售亏损业务带来现金流改善超预期、中国合同物流和/或东盟快递市场竞争缓和 [30] 财务数据与预测调整 (顺丰控股) * **2Q25 关键财务数据**：收入 770.08 亿人民币 (同比 +11%)，毛利润 101.22 亿人民币 (同比 +1%)，EBIT (高盛定义) 39.21 亿人民币 (同比 -3%)，归属于股东净利润 35.04 亿人民币 (同比 +21%)，税前净利润 25.77 亿人民币 (同比 +3%) [14][16] * **预测调整**：将 2025-27E 收入预测微调 0-1%，主要因供应链与国际业务收入增长更强劲；将 2025-27E 净利润预测下调 2%~0%，主因灵活定价策略；预计 2025E 集团收入增长 9% (不变)，3Q25 收入增长 10% [12][17] * **利润率展望**：预计 3Q25/FY25E 毛利率为 13.4%/13.3% (此前为 14.2%/14.1%)，净利率为 3.8%/3.7% (此前为 4.1%/3.8%) [3] 其他重要内容 * **行业竞争与定价**：数据显示主要快递公司 (如中通、韵达、圆通、申通等) 的日均包裹量和单票收入同比变化，反映了行业内的价格竞争态势 [26][27] * **风险提示**：对顺丰的关键风险包括 prolonged price competition ( prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price competition prolonged price 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股价表现 - 8月29日股价下跌5.17%至45.90元/股 成交额10.23亿元 换手率0.46% 总市值2313.09亿元 [1] 公司业务结构 - 主营业务收入构成：时效快递42.97% 供应链及国际业务26.02% 快运13.23% 经济快递9.58% 冷运及医药3.45% 同城即时配送3.17% 其他1.14% 未分配0.44% [1] 基金持仓情况 - 博远优享混合A持有1.7万股 持股数量与上期持平 占基金净值比例2.78% 位列第二大重仓股 [2] - 当日该基金持仓浮亏约4.25万元 [2] 基金业绩表现 - 基金最新规模2818.64万元 今年以来收益6.49% 近一年收益15.54% 成立以来亏损1.24% [2] - 基金经理任职期间最佳回报7% 最差回报5.96% 管理资产总规模2986.53万元 [3]