美联储利率决策与市场反应 - 美联储降息并预计今年内还将有两次降息 但经济预测显示增长强于预期且失业率低于6月预测 体现政策立场与经济基本面的矛盾 [3][4] - 10年期国债收益率出现显著波动 从决策公布后的下跌转为新闻发布会期间的急剧反弹 当前水平位于412-413基点 反映市场对政策不确定性的反应 [1][2][5] 债券市场展望与风险因素 - 长期债券收益率可能保持稳定或小幅上升 尽管存在降息预期 但财政预算担忧和通胀风险可能使投资者要求更高收益率补偿 [7][8][9] - 通胀水平仍处于高位但未重新加速 劳动力市场放缓风险可能大于通胀上行风险 这促使美联储采取风险管理导向的降息策略而非激进宽松 [4][5][10] 货币政策路径预期 - 利率削减幅度将取决于后续经济数据 但预计不会出现持续大幅降息周期 货币政策路径可能较为平缓 [3][8][11] - 短期利率下降但长期收益率可能保持韧性 因投资者需防范实际收益率被通胀侵蚀的风险 国内外投资者可能要求长期债券提供更高溢价 [10][11]

美联储9月17日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4%至4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，美国就业市场疲软是当前的首要考虑因素，降低利率将有助于帮助陷入困境的劳动力市场。 美国就业增长放缓的同时，通胀也居高不下，关税对物价的影响仍在进一步显现。此次降息反映美联储对就业情况的担忧甚于通胀风险。 鲍威尔强调，"通常情况下，劳动力市场疲软时，通货膨胀率较低；而当劳动力市场非常强劲时，需要警惕通货膨胀上升。目前的情况是存在双向风险。这 意味着，现在没有无风险的途径。" 分析人士在接受东方卫视记者专访时表示，美联储此次降息符合市场预期，由于通胀仍可能攀升，进一步降息的前景仍不明朗。 中金公司研究部首席港股与海外策略分析师刘刚分析称，"用鲍威尔的话，'风险的天平略微地往就业这边倾斜了一些'，但是也不是说倾斜了以后就所有 （问题）都解决了。他用这次降息略微地支撑了就业的风险，但是通胀未来几个月大概率还会抬升。" 此次议息会议上，由美国总统特朗普提名、刚刚出任美联储理事的白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰投了唯一反对票。他认为， ...

You're calling this the calm before the storm. It's really based on your thought that two more cuts are priced in, but you're not really sure we're going to get those. What do you think that means for the market, the fact that there is at least a little bit of uncertainty about those two other cuts.And J Pal, he kind of alluded to it that they're going to remain data dependent meeting the meeting. Yeah, there was obviously the Fed came out with a dot plot that did surprise everyone sort of pricing in sugges ...

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 and released policymakers' quarterly forecast of economic conditions that shows the potential outlook for further rate cuts, as well as inflation and the labor market. The 25-basis-point cut lowered the benchmark federal funds rate to a new range of 4% to 4.25%, after rates were held steady at the first five meetings of this year amid economic uncertainty regarding the labor market and inflation amid tariff shifts and immigration ...

The Federal Reserve is back in focus as today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could bring the first rate cut of 2025, and traders are closely watching what it could mean for the Bitcoin price. Markets are heavily leaning toward a rate cut at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Data from CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 96% probability that the Fed will reduce its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. There is also a small, 4% chance that policymakers could move more aggressi ...

The US Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut yesterday and signaled two further reductions before the end of the year. It comes amid concerns surrounding the weakness of the US labor market and was characterized by chair Jerome Powell in his post decision press conference as risk management. The committee voted 11 to1 who's the one 11 to1 to lower rates by 25 basis points with less descent than expected.Yeah, Waller and Bowman were in line with what the Fed chair voted. The Tru ...

美联储降息决策 - 美联储将联邦基金目标利率区间下调25个基点至4.00%–4.25% 为今年首次降息 [1] - 点阵图对今明两年年终利率预测中位数均下调25个基点 显示整体政策立场趋向鸽派 [2] 对香港经济影响 - 美元进入宽松周期有助刺激香港经济活动 利好香港资产表现 [1] - 香港利率随美元利率回落 降低企业融资成本并提升资本开支意愿 [1] - 美联储降息对冲全球经济下行风险 提振制造业活动和香港贸易 [1] - 港股市场受惠流动性环境改善 推动估值中枢上升 [1] 降息决策背景 - 关税对美国经济造成"滞胀"效应逐渐浮现 就业下行趋势较通胀上升更明显 [1] - 议息声明删除劳动力市场稳健表述 强调失业风险上升及风险平衡变化 [1] - 就业问题考虑权重提高成为推动降息关键因素 [1] 政策分歧与不确定性 - 美联储理事米兰主张降息50个基点而非25个基点 反映成员对降息幅度存在分歧 [2] - 经济前景不明朗及美国政府货币政策偏好表达 可能削弱未来政策可预测性 [2]

美联储利率决议 - 美联储于9月17日降息25个基点 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%-4.25% 符合市场预期[2][3] - 这是自2024年以来第四次降息 累计降息幅度达125个基点 包括2024年11月7日(+25BP)、12月18日(+25BP)、9月18日(+50BP)及2025年9月18日(+25BP)[2][3] - 决议以11-1票数通过 新任理事Stephen Miran持异议 主张更激进的50个基点降幅[3] 经济背景与政策立场 - 美国经济呈现"温和放缓" 就业创造疲软 8月失业率升至4.3% 为2021年底以来最高水平[5] - 通胀压力持续高企 仍高于美联储舒适区间[5] - 鲍威尔将此次降息定义为"风险管理式降息" 强调政策立场正从"适度限制"转向中性[6] 点阵图与政策分歧 - 19位官员中10人预计2025年还将降息两次 9人预计仅一次 一人反对任何降息[8] - 最鸽派预测显示2025年累计降息125个基点 普遍认为反映Miran立场[9] - 2026年预测中值显示仅再加息一次 长期中性利率中值维持在3%[9] 市场反应与板块表现 - 道琼斯工业平均指数上涨260点(0.6%) 收于46,018.32点历史新高[12] - 标普500指数下跌0.1%至6,600.35点 纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.3%至22,261.33点[12] - 科技股遭遇获利了结(Nvidia、Oracle、Palantir、Broadcom收低) 利率敏感板块上涨(Walmart、摩根大通、美国运通表现突出)[13] - 罗素2000小型股指数上涨0.18% 反映其对浮动利率融资的依赖性[13] 历史周期表现参考 - 2001年首次降息后3个月标普500下跌16.3% 6个月跌12.4% 1年跌14.9%[3] - 2007年首次降息后3个月跌4.4% 6个月跌11.8% 1年跌7.2%[3] - 2019年首次降息后3个月涨3.8% 6个月涨13.3% 1年涨14.5%[3] - 2024年周期首次降息后3个月涨4.5% 6个月跌0.1% 1年涨17.5%[3] 政治环境与政策前景 - 决策前数月面临政治压力 特朗普总统公开呼吁更激进降息以支持住房市场和减轻政府债务负担[11] - Miran的任命被视为特朗普试图增强对货币政策影响力的举措[11] - 市场预计2025年剩余两次会议中至少还有一次降息 具体路径将取决于通胀放缓程度及劳动力市场疲软是否演变为更广泛经济压力[15]

Could the US interest rate cut boost the housing market?23 minutes agoDanielle KayeBusiness reporterEPA-EFE/REX/ShutterstockA picture taken with a drone shows single-family homes in Woodbridge, Virginia, USA, 02 January 2024.Aileen Barrameda is planning to buy a house in Los Angeles in the coming months. Stubbornly high mortgage rates - twice what she locked in at the start of the coronavirus pandemic - are not putting her off."If I have the means to get in the market, I might as well get in now, because ho ...

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Sept. 17, lowering the federal funds rate to a new range of 4.00% to 4.25% — its first reduction in nine months. The move, backed by 11 of 12 voting members, came amid weaker labor market data, slower consumer spending, and an uptick in unemployment. Markets had fully priced in the cut. Prediction markets on Polymarket showed a 93% probability ahead of the decision, leaving little surprise for traders. Related: What are yield ...