**行业与公司** * 行业：人工智能（AI）投资主题，涉及数据中心资本支出、云计算、芯片、电力、网络基础设施等 * 公司：超大规模云服务商（如META、GOOG、AMZN、MSFT、ORCL）、芯片供应商（如NVDA）、能源公司（如KMI、WMB、EQT）、工业公司（如ETN、PWR）及公用事业公司等[4][57][60] **核心观点与论据** **对AI主题保持建设性看法** * AI作为投资主题基本面稳固，数据中心资本支出预计以每年30%的复合增长率增长至2027年，计算需求仍超过供应[4][17][19] * 超大规模云服务商资本支出占销售额比例约25%，仍远低于互联网泡沫时期电信公司的40%，且负债水平仅为EBITDA的0.25倍，财务基础更稳健[4][29][30] * AI已带来实际生产力提升：10%的S&P 1500公司在财报中提到AI与效率/生产力提升相关，多家公司报告AI驱动开发时间减少30%以上、营销投资回报率提高31%等[4][46][47] **潜在风险与下行情景** * 若数据中心资本支出在未来两年下降20%（而非每年增长30%），预计S&P 500的2026财年每股收益将面临3-4%的阻力，估值可能下调10-13%[4][91][97] * 风险因素包括：电力短缺可能使未来建设不可行、模型进步停滞导致资产利用率不足、资金需求超过现金生成能力、美国衰退可能加剧数据中心投资收缩[4][70][73][109] * AI经济已扩展至能源、工业、公用事业等领域，若AI叙事受挫，这些辅助行业可能比科技股更脆弱[57][60] **宏观影响与市场动态** * 数据中心投资可能贡献了2025年上半年美国GDP增长1.4个百分点中的1个百分点，其放缓可能对整体经济产生显著影响[11][105][106] * 市场投机行为增加，巴克莱股票狂热指标（EEI）当前为11.9%，较长期平均值高1.9个标准差，显示 euphoric 交易天数多的股票后续回报往往较弱[118][121][122] * 对冲机会：基于EEI和波动率评分，最便宜的看跌期权标的包括美国电力（AEP）、杜克能源（DUK）和CBRE集团（CBRE）等[124] **其他重要内容** * 电力约束是关键瓶颈：数据中心的电力需求预计三年内占美国总需求的12%，较2023年水平增长近三倍，PJM电网电价已飙升22%[70][72][73] * 超大规模云服务商的运营支出因AI人才竞争而上升，但收入增长更快，支持利润率扩张，与互联网泡沫时期电信公司形成对比[25][35][39] * 监管风险：2025年美国50个州提出超过100项AI相关立法，联邦层面也在讨论透明度要求[85]

涉及的行业和公司 * 公司为药明康德 业务涵盖化学药物合同研究、开发和生产组织 是小分子、肽类、核苷酸药物开发全价值链的领先平台[11] * 行业为医药研发外包服务 即CRO和CRDMO行业[2][11] 核心财务数据与业绩指引 * 公司重申2025年营收指引为425亿至435亿元人民币[2] * 预计非国际财务报告准则净利润率将改善[2] * 瑞银预计公司2025年每股收益为5.23元人民币 高于市场共识的4.83元[8] * 预计2025年EBIT利润率为35.5% 2029年预计提升至39.4%[6] * 预计2025年股本自由现金流收益率为3.5% 2029年预计提升至8.1%[6] 业务板块表现与增长驱动 * TIDES业务是化学业务增长的关键驱动力 2025年收入目标为同比增长80%[3] * 化学业务整体目标为同比增长20%以上 其中非TIDES部分增长约7%[3] * 公司预计药物产品（DP）可能成为继TIDES之后长期收入增长的下一个关键驱动力[3] * 测试和生物学板块正看到全球和中国研发活动的逐步复苏 H125临床前服务新订单同比增长14.5%[4] * 新订单增长区域以欧盟最高（+30.7%） 其次为美国（+19.9%）和中国（+11.6%）[4] 运营效率与产能扩张 * 通过采用内部开发的软件（如Pyxis调度系统） 新工厂的投产爬坡期从22.6个月缩短至2.4个月[3] * H125产能利用率提高至72%（2020年为60%）[3] * 自动化系统替代了约90%的小分子生产人力工作和80%的肽类项目人力工作[3] * 公司有信心比同行更好地运营海外产能 目标新加坡基地首个工厂于2027年1月运营 美国基地于2026年底启动固体口服制剂生产 2027年第四季度启动注射剂生产[3] 市场地位与竞争优势 * 在2024年上半年全球授权的合成药物中 有29%（62个）由药明康德服务 且项目保留率为100%[2] * 公司在药物对外授权后赢得了其中九个项目[2] * 公司对其综合CRDMO商业模式、中国的许可热度和资本市场活动充满信心 认为能获取更多份额[2] * 公司对全球研发需求的增长持积极态度 认为美联储降息将有利于此[2] * 公司相信复杂模式的强劲增长将长期推动其增长 一体化能力能有效帮助项目从早期流向后期/商业化阶段[4] 估值与投资建议 * 瑞银基于DCF的目标价为136.10港元（WACC 11.2% 永续增长率3%） 隐含24.1倍2026年预期市盈率[5] * 重申买入评级 并列为CRO行业首选[5] * 当前股价（2025年9月24日）为109.20港元 较目标价有24.6%的上涨空间 加上1.5%的预期股息率 总预期回报为26.2%[7][10] * 瑞银持有该公司1%或以上的普通股[27] 风险因素 * 早期项目向后期阶段推进的数量可能少于预期 原因包括项目延迟或失败超出预期[12] * 地缘政治问题意外升级[12] * 制药公司的研发支出和外包意愿低于预期[12] 其他重要信息 * 公司于2025年9月25日举办了2025年投资者日并庆祝其成立25周年[2] * 定量研究评估显示 分析师对行业结构、监管环境、近期股价表现以及下一份财报相对于市场共识的预期均持积极看法（评分均为4分 满分5分）[14] * 下一个关键催化剂预计是2025年10月31日左右发布的2025年第三季度业绩 需关注TIDES增长、小分子业务以及国内CRO服务的复苏信号[14]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>ab 25 September 2025 China Medtech Expert call takeaways: Pulse check on China's IVD market China IVD market update for Q325 We hosted an expert call with Mr. Fang, an in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) distributor with over 15 years of industry experience. The key topics included: 1) market size, test volume, channel inventory and the competitive landscape in Q325; 2) the implementation status and impact of existing policies in relation to test volume and test fee/reagent prices; and 3) the expert's estimates of market growth and potential competitive dynamics in Q425/2026.</doc> <doc id='2'>Q325 results likely to diverge across test types According to the expert, the market growth in regions under his analysis was as follows: 1) Chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA): -17% YoY in test volume and -25% YoY in revenue. Volume declined QoQ, with a negative impact from panel test unbundling policies. On a monthly basis, the expert noted stabilisation of test volume in September 2025 following declines in July-August. 2) Clinical chemistry: -8% YoY in volume and revenue. Similar to CLIA, the QoQ volume decline for clinical chemistry tests was mainly reflected in July-August 2025. 3) Haematology: +8% YoY in volume and +6% YoY in revenue. The QoQ volume decline was less than 2%, primarily attributable to an off- season for physical examinations. 4) Haemostasis: +3% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ. 5) Point of care tests (POCT): -12% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ.</doc> <doc id='3'>Channel destocking close to an end; import substitution status varies by test With respect to channel inventory, the expert highlighted the following: 1) CLIA: For global brands, channel inventory is equivalent to 10-12 weeks of sales. For local brands, it is equivalent to 8-10 weeks of sales. 2) Haematology: Leading players had channel inventory equivalent to ~6 months of sales last year and have had channel destocking YTD. In terms of import substitution, the expert noted the following: 1) CLIA: Import substitution was accelerated by volume-based procurement (VBP) in Q325, with domestic brands more accepted by grade A tertiary hospitals; the trend is likely to extend into Q425-2026. 2) Clinical chemistry: A stable competitive landscape, with domestic brands commanding a large share. 3) Haematology: Import substitution in lower-tier markets and even some top-tier hospitals; the expert expects the trend to be sustained in Q425-2026. 4) Haemostasis: Ongoing import substitution but at a relatively slow pace.</doc> <doc id='4'>The expert estimates market growth in 2026 for major tests, except CLIA Overall, the expert expects sector-wide test volume to bottom out in Q425, with the negative impact of the test unbundling policy largely reflected. In terms of the 2026 outlook, he thinks major test categories are likely to grow YoY, except for CLIA, for which revenue may continue to decline YoY, given a relatively high base for reagent prices. According to the expert: 1) CLIA: The market size could shrink 10%+ YoY as new prices for tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents are implemented in Q425. The inflection point is most likely to occur in Q426, but it could be as early as Q326. 2) Clinical chemistry: The expert expects market growth below 5% in 2026. 3) Haematology: There is high growth visibility, with a relatively low likelihood of VBP; the expert expects c10% growth in 2026. 4) Haemostasis: The expert thinks this category has a relatively high possibility of VBP. That said, 10% market growth in 2026 could be feasible without VBP.</doc> <doc id='5'>Equities China Healthcare Jun Deng Analyst jun.deng@ubs.com +852-3712 2103 Emma Ma, CFA Associate S1460124070003 emma-mc.ma@ubs.com +86-21-3866 8981 Chen Chen, PhD Analyst chen-zb.chen@ubs.com +86-10-5832 8201 This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 6. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.</doc> <doc id='6'>Expert call key takeaways We hosted an expert call with Mr. Fang, an IVD distributor with over 15 years of industry experience. Below, we present highlights from the meeting. We have made edits for clarity; minor grammatical changes that do not impact the meaning of content have been applied. The opinions expressed by the expert herein do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly for any loss or damage arising out of the use of this information or any part thereof.</doc> <doc id='7'>1. What do you see for China's IVD market growth by revenue and test volume in Q325? According to the expert, the market growth in regions under his analysis was as follows: 1) Chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA): -17% YoY in test volume and -25% YoY in revenue. Volume declined QoQ, with a negative impact from panel test unbundling policies. On a monthly basis, the expert noted stabilisation of test volume in September 2025 following declines in July-August. 2) Clinical chemistry: -8% YoY in volume and revenue. Similar to CLIA, the QoQ volume decline for clinical chemistry tests was mainly reflected in July-August 2025. 3) Haematology: +8% YoY in volume and +6% YoY in revenue. The QoQ volume decline was less than 2%, primarily attributable to an off- season for physical examinations. 4) Haemostasis: +3% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ. 5) Point of care tests (POCT): -12% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ.</doc> <doc id='8'>2. For the haematology business, why did the top two players have notable revenue declines in Q225? In Q225, Mindray and Sysmex had notable revenue declines YoY for the haematology business. This was the opposite of the market expansion observed by the expert. For example, Dymind, the third-largest player in the market, had 10%+ growth in volume and revenue in the first nine months of 2025. In addition, Maccura, another key player, saw single-digit growth in H125.</doc> <doc id='9'>As per the expert, Sysmex's revenue decline in Q225 may be attributable to import substitution and channel destocking. For Mindray, potential reasons for the revenue decline in the quarter include channel destocking and a high revenue base last year.</doc> <doc id='10'>3. What is the level of channel inventory for reagents across test categories? Will channel destocking continue to pressure companies' revenue growth in the near future? At the sector level, the expert estimates channel inventory as of Q325 to be as follows: 1) CLIA: For global brands, channel inventory is equivalent to 10-12 weeks of sales. For local brands, it is equivalent to 8-10 weeks of sales. 2) Clinical chemistry: Not much change in Q325. 3) Haematology: Leading players had channel inventory equivalent to ~6 months of sales last year and have had channel destocking YTD. The expert believes channel destocking may be close to an end for Mindray's haematology business. Heading into Q425, the expert expects a limited impact from channel destocking for leading domestic companies such as Mindray, with relatively low channel inventory in haematology, CLIA and clinical chemistry.</doc> <doc id='11'>4. What is the potential market growth across test categories in Q425-2026? Overall, the expert expects sector-wide test volume to bottom out in Q425, with the negative impact of the test unbundling policy largely reflected.</doc> <doc id='12'>In terms of the 2026 outlook, he thinks major test categories are likely to grow YoY, except for CLIA, for which revenue may continue to decline YoY, given a relatively high base for reagent prices. According to the expert: 1) CLIA: The market size could shrink 10%+ YoY as new prices for tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents are implemented in Q425. The inflection point is most likely to occur in Q426, but it could</doc> <doc id='13'>be as early as Q326. 2) Clinical chemistry: The expert expects market growth below 5% in 2026. 3) Haematology: There is high growth visibility , with a relatively low likelihood of VBP; the expert expects c10% growth in 2026. 4) Haemostasis: The expert thinks this category has a relatively high possibility of VBP. That said, 10% market growth in 2026 could be feasible without VBP.</doc> <doc id='14'>5. What are the current status and potential outlook of import substitution across test categories? 1) CLIA: Import substitution was accelerated by VBP in Q325, with domestic brands more accepted by grade A tertiary hospitals; the trend is likely to extend into Q425- 2026. 2) Clinical chemistry: A stable competitive landscape, with domestic brands commanding a large share. 3) Haematology: Import substitution for local brands, such as Mindray, Dymind and Urit, in some top-tier hospitals, as well as continued import substitution in lower-tier markets; the expert expects the trend to be sustained in Q425- 2026. 4) Haemostasis: Ongoing import substitution but at a relatively slow pace.</doc> <doc id='15'>For Mindray specifically, the expert sees market share gain potential across test types. For example, he believes it could be feasible to gain 2% share annually in CLIA market in the next three years. That said, the potential market share gain in haematology could be modest, given its high market share.</doc> <doc id='16'>6. What will be the actual impact of test volume-related policies in Q325? When do you expect these policies' impact to fade? Can any potential new policies further erode test volume? According to the expert, the test unbundling policy could lead ~15%/~5% volume declines YoY for CLIA/clinical chemistry in Q325. In contrast, the expert thinks there will be a limited impact for haematology and haemostasis. The expert expects the policy impact to fade in Q425, as test unbundling may be largely completed by September 2025. In addition, a few regions had rebundling for some panel tests that were previously unbundled.</doc> <doc id='17'>Beyond test unbundling, the expert foresees a very limited additional impact from DRG implementation and mutual recognition of test results. Moreover, he does not think there will be more new policies to further erode test volume at the sector level.</doc> <doc id='18'>7. For the VBP of tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents, what are the likely implementation timeline and ex-factory price cuts? The expert expects this round of VBP to be implemented starting in October 2025 and to cover most of the participating provinces by December 2025. The ex-factory price adjustment has not been completed yet, although a few companies have adjusted thyroid function reagent prices following the previous VBP in Gansu.</doc> <doc id='19'>On the magnitude of ex-factory price cuts, the expert thinks domestic companies may have 20%+ cuts for tumour markers and 10%+ cuts for thyroid function reagents. For overseas companies, the expert expects further price erosion for tumour biomarkers reagents on top of the price revisions following the previous testing fee correction. For thyroid function reagents, the ex-factory price cuts could reach c30%.</doc> <doc id='20'>8. Which reagents are likely to be covered by the next round of VBP? What is the potential timeline? The expert reiterated his view that CLIA will be the priority for VBP in 2026. Implementation is likely to start in 2027, although the impact could be limited, as major test items under CLIA have been covered by VBP. In addition to CLIA, the expert now thinks the VBP of haemostasis tests may take place in 2026 or 2027. Similar to CLIA, it may take about one year from the result announcement to official implementation for haemostasis VBP, in the expert's view.</doc> <doc id='21'>9. What is the potential impact of Hunan Province's recent test-fee correction for drug-resistant tuberculosis molecular testing? Which tests may be subject to a test-fee correction going forward? The expert expects a limited impact from this initiative, considering the small market size of tuberculosis-related tests in China (Rmb300m+ in total, with the market size of drug- resistant tuberculosis tests amounting to Rmb100m+). Overseas companies such as Cepheid (a member of Danaher Group) and domestic companies such as Zeesan, Ustar and Wantai may have some impact, as per the expert.</doc> <doc id='22'>The expert noted that tests with particularly high fees will be the focus of the upcoming testing fee correction. Thus, the main focus could be CLIA, such as tumour biomarkers, infectious diseases, thyroid functions and myocarditis tests.</doc> <doc id='23'>Valuation Method and Risk Statement We believe the risks facing China's medtech industry include: 1) larger-than-expected price reductions and smaller-than-expected market share gains from medical device VBP programs; 2) weaker-than-expected demand from equipment renewal programs; 3) a greater-than- expected impact from the anti-corruption drive; 4) geopolitical risks affecting the supply chain of medical device products; and 5) slower-than-expected product R&D and technological breakthroughs.</doc> <doc id='24'>Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".</doc> <doc id='25'>For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 25 September 2025 03:15 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses,

涉及的行业或公司 * 公司为京东 (JD O) [1] * 行业涉及中国电子商务、人工智能、物流、零售、医疗健康和工业制造 [1][2][6][7][8][9] 核心观点和论据 公司战略与AI投资 * 京东更新了对AI价值的看法，认为AI价值 = 模型 × 经验 × 对行业的深入理解 [2] * 京东宣布未来三年将投资培育一个价值万亿人民币的AI生态系统 [2] * 公司旨在通过其在各行业垂直领域的供应链技术积累的专业知识，实现AI的可持续发展，为行业带来价值 [2] 新产品与技术发布 * 京东宣布其升级后的大型模型品牌 JoyAI，并发布了三款面向个人消费者的新AI产品 [3][5] * "京犀"：集成AI的购物和本地生活超级应用，支持语音控制交易 [5] * "Ta"：通用数字助理代理，可创建AI代理并嵌入智能硬件 [5] * "JoyInside Embodied Intelligence"：软硬件集成解决方案，已使用户主动对话平均增长超过120%，并被30多个顶级品牌和10多家领先机器人公司采用 [6] * 京东宣布升级三大AI基础设施：数字人平台4.0、JoyAgent 3.0智能平台和JoyCode 2.0编码平台 [10] 行业应用与效率提升 * 京东在四个关键领域宣布了AI进展 [6] * **物流**：升级了全多模态的物流超级大脑大模型2.0，并发布首款"智能机械臂"以解决大量非标准化包裹的自动化问题，旨在提高物流和仓储效率及准确性 [7] * **零售**：推出基于JoyAI模型的Oxygen电商AI架构，并在10月发布的JD应用16.0版本升级中增加智能搜索和推荐功能"Aigou"，利用自然语言交互提供个性化购物体验 [8] * **医疗健康**：推出行业"首个"能理解医疗报告和患者描述的医疗大模型"京医千寻2.0"，并赋能新的JD Health AI Hospital 1.0 [9] * **工业**：发布行业"首个"工业供应链大模型JoyIndustrial，基于超过5700万种产品的数据训练，旨在提高效率并降低成本 [9] * 分析认为京东的AI物流和电商供应链解决方案将提升运营效率并优化行业流程，增强其对其供应链合作伙伴的价值主张和竞争力 [1] 财务分析与投资建议 * 花旗维持对京东的"买入"评级，目标价为44美元，基于12倍2026年非GAAP每股收益3.66美元 [1][11] * 目标市盈率隐含相对于2025-2027年预计收益复合年增长率23%约50%的折价，该折价被认为是合理的，因京东积极进军外卖等可能损害其利润增长且竞争和支出正常化时间不确定的领域 [11] * 当前股价为35.17美元，预期股价回报率为25.1%，预期股息收益率为3.7%，预期总回报率为28.8%，市值为565.48亿美元 [3] 其他重要内容 潜在风险 * 主要下行风险包括：1) 中国电商和外卖领域竞争加剧 2) 对物流配送和海外计划的大量投资可能拖累利润率 3) 利润率轨迹和早期盈利能见度不足 4) 中国经济进一步放缓可能影响消费者支出 [12] 市场背景 * 分析认为中国正进入AI应用加速期，互联网和其他技术平台加大投资推动了多种类型的AI技术创新 [1] * 除了像阿里云这样的云基础设施提供商的LLM，预计将看到更多垂直平台参与投资/发布行业AI模型/解决方案，利用其核心专业领域的经验和知识来支持其垂直业务合作伙伴 [1]

September 28, 2025 08:11 PM GMT Yili Industrial | Asia Pacific NDR Feedback - Focus on Raw Milk Supply Cycle and Key Product Category Strategy Key Takeaways Key questions from investors: 1. When will raw milk reach supply/demand balance? Management cited two positive signs: cow herds dropping sequentially and non-contractual raw milk prices rebounding. It expects a balance in 2026. 2. What are the next 3-5 year targets? Yili is still drafting its next 5-year plan. General directions are for: 1) liquid milk ...

Equity Research 25 September 2025 U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment NVDA's Vision Coming to Life: $2T and Counting When tracking AI capacity additions over the LTM, AI TAMs don't seem so outlandish anymore and NVDA looks like the most interesting name in our group. When Jensen first forecast a $1T industry by the end of the decade, we admittedly balked. With the wave of announcements that have come over the last 6-9mo, we now estimate over $2T of planned spend at ~40GW of power in total. ...

**行业与公司** * 涉及中国宏观经济与货币政策[1] * 涉及中国工业利润与原材料行业（如钢铁）[4] * 涉及中国政府债券（CGB）市场[1][2][3] **核心观点与论据** * 中国人民银行货币政策立场未变 第三季度货币政策委员会声明与第二季度基本一致 但不再将经济描述为“显示积极势头” 原因是近几个月经济数据疲软[1] * 长期中国政府债券收益率持续攀升 原因是债转股轮动以及市场对CGB投资增税的预期 图表显示10年期和30年期CGB收益率走势[1][2][3] * 尽管仍预期第四季度有政策利率和存款准备金率下调 但鉴于央行近期强调数据依赖性 可能需要经济活动显著疲弱才会触发[1] * 8月工业利润显著改善 环比增长8.0% 高于7月的3.7%增长 但工业收入在过去两个月基本保持不变[4][9] * 钢铁等原材料行业盈利能力显著改善 暗示政府的“反内卷”政策正在发挥作用 但国家统计局评论称8月利润改善主要得益于成本降低 这凸显了中国对抗通缩的难度[4] * 欧洲投资者对中国科技与创新中期展望普遍持建设性态度 但对近期的通缩、企业盈利和家庭消费存在持续担忧 对人民币看法不强 因美元方向不明 对中国利率看法分歧 部分客户认为债转股轮动可能推动长期CGB收益率进一步走高 另一部分则认为这可能是做多的机会[10] **其他重要内容** * 文档包含大量监管披露、免责声明和法律合规信息 强调研究报告仅供参考 不构成个人投资建议 投资者应自行决策并注意风险[5][15][16][17][18][25][26][27][28][31][38] * 列出了高盛近期关于中国宏观经济的部分研究报告标题 涵盖家庭储蓄、产能过剩、出口、PMI、CPI、房地产价格等多个主题[11][13] * 提供了分析团队成员的姓名和联系方式[6]

**行业与公司** 行业聚焦中国/香港消费板块 涵盖多个子行业包括运动服饰、玩具、珠宝、啤酒、乳制品、家电、餐饮等[1][4][7] 涉及公司包括但不限于安踏体育(ANTA Sports Products)、李宁(Li Ning)、泡泡玛特(Pop Mart International Group)、老铺黄金(Laopu Gold)、申洲国际(Shenzhou International)、巨子生物(Giant Biogene)、百胜中国(YUMC)、蒙牛乳业(China Mengniu Dairy)、青岛啤酒(Tsingtao Brewery)等[7][58][60][62] **核心观点与论据** * 国际投资者对中国消费板块持仓较轻但兴趣提升 近期在美国、欧洲和新加坡举行路演活动 会见超过70家机构客户[3][7] * 宏观层面关注消费复苏轨迹和政策影响 多数投资者认为基本面全面复苏需要时间 资金轮动是重要变量 存在落后补涨风险[3][7] * 股票层面兴趣集中于少数公司 但地区关注点不同 美国投资者偏好 idiosyncratic机会如泡泡玛特 而欧洲和新加坡投资者兴趣更广泛覆盖多个子行业[3][7] * 新兴投资角度包括：1)在消费降级环境中能维持高端定位并拥有定价力的品牌 2)财富效应转移时的受益者[3][7] * 消费驱动因素：潜在支持性政策和受益品类 2026年可能出台补贴措施 股市上涨可能带来积极的财富效应[7] **其他重要内容** * 泡泡玛特是最具争议的公司 市场关注社交媒体狂热/Labubu系列 但忽视了其复购客户积累和丰富的IP/产品供应 供需动态是热门话题 部分投资者将其与其他流行收藏品(如运动/Pokemon卡片)比较[7] * 运动服饰关注安踏、Amer、李宁的需求趋势和选股[7] * 老铺黄金关注价值主张、长期增长驱动力 与欧洲奢侈品牌和国内珠宝品牌的竞争[7] * 代工企业关注关税影响 鞋服供应商中更具优势的玩家 申洲国际关注客户基础、订单流和利润率趋势驱动的销售增长[7] * 巨子生物关注进入壁垒、需求持久性和利润率趋势[7] * 百胜中国关注外卖补贴的影响[7] * 啤酒/乳制品关注潜在复苏[7] * 家电关注国家补贴和海外机会[7] * 摩根士丹利披露其与覆盖的多家公司存在业务往来 包括投资银行业务、做市等 并持有部分公司1%或以上普通股[13][14][15][16][17][18][19]

29 September 2025 | 7:24AM CST Equity Research CHINA SOLAR: TRACKING PROFITABILITY INFLECTION Sep Poly/Glass price above expectation, but likely to be reversed as downstream inventory piles up Our China Solar Profitability Tracker follows monthly supply/demand and inventory dynamics by sub-sector, and the spot prices/input costs implied cash GP & EBITDA margin trends for companies under our coverage. Key highlights in Sep MTD: Jacqueline Du +852-2978-1783 | jacqueline.du@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. c ...

**公司及行业** 公司为药明康德（WuXi AppTec Co. 2359.HK/603259.SS） 行业为医药研发外包服务（CRO/CDMO）[1][10] **核心业务模式与市场地位** - 公司强调其CRDMO（合同研究、开发与生产）业务模式的优势 聚焦于获取新项目、增强客户黏性及捕捉新兴机会[1] - 在小分子药物领域保持稳定市场份额 D端（开发端）市占率为16% 2024年至2025年上半年在40个获批小分子项目中捕获约20%份额[6] - 客户留存率高达98% 前300名客户贡献70%总业务[5] 使用发现与临床前平台的客户数量达1000家（2023年为900家） 全流程服务收入占比提升至74.4%（原73.2%）[5] **技术能力与新兴机会** - TIDES业务（包括多肽和寡核苷酸）增长显著 环肽进入大规模商业化生产 核酸产品处于PPQ（工艺验证）阶段 当前聚焦罕见病但具备扩展潜力[5] - 技术优势包括流动化学、光化学技术等 支持新模态药物开发[5] - 早期项目参与助力捕捉新靶点研发趋势 治疗领域扩展至抗感染、神经科学、代谢及免疫炎症等非肿瘤领域[5] **运营效率与数字化进展** - 生物学业务通过数字化运营、DMPK软件及生物分析平台提升效率 2025年上半年项目周转时间同比减少30% 分析时间减少35%[7] - 生产基地投产时间从2017年22.6个月大幅缩短至2024年2.4个月[7] - 数字化系统覆盖90%运营流程 API产能利用率提升至72%（去年68%） 小分子和肽生产自动化分别达90%和80%[7] - "鹰眼"系统降低错误率并提高成功率 FDA审计零缺陷[7] **海外产能扩张与战略布局** - D&M（开发与生产）产能投资占比升至85%（早期为28%）[8] - 药品生产（DP）成为新增长引擎 2025年上半年69个TIDES分子同时使用API和DP服务[8] - 泰兴基地：过去12个月投产4个新工厂 二期两车间建设周期仅11-12个月（对比常州基地一期/二期63个月）[8] - 新加坡：首个小分子工厂预计2027年1月投产 首座TIDES工厂预计2028年二季度投产[8] - 瑞士库韦站点：口服剂量包装产能翻倍 新建PSD-4喷雾干燥大楼预计2026年四季度完工[8] - 美国基地：预计2026年四季度运营 2027年底前上线无菌灌装产能 将成为公司最大海外设施[8] - 新加坡肽产能和美国OSD（口服固体制剂）产能有望捕捉肥胖治疗机遇[8] **财务预测与风险提示** - 高盛给予H股目标价96.9港元（当前107.6港元 下行空间9.9%） A股目标价93.3元（当前102.92元 下行空间9.3%） 基于17倍12个月前瞻市盈率[9][11] - 上行风险：若美国《生物安全法案》最终仅限制联邦资助项目或排除药明系公司[9][10] - 下行风险：1）法案极端情景导致美国或海外收入归零 2）国内外同行价格竞争 3）监管与融资风险 4）成功导向型业务模式不确定性 5）新业务增速不及预期[9][10] - 财务预测：2024-2027年收入预计为392.4亿/440.0亿/493.7亿/551.9亿元 每股收益为3.23/4.99/5.34/5.91元[11] **其他重要信息** - 公司M&A评级为3（被收购概率0%-15%）[11][17] - 高盛持有药明康德A股和H股超过1%股权 并在过去12个月提供投资银行服务[21]