**行业与公司** 涉及行业为中国医药研发外包（CXO）行业 公司为药明康德（WuXi AppTec）[2][8][15] **核心观点与论据** * **美国药品关税影响有限** 美国计划对品牌药征收100%关税 但该政策针对成品药而非CDMO服务 且药明康德的客户通常承担关税成本 公司正在扩大美国产能以降低地缘政治风险 对中国生物科技公司无直接影响[2][5] * **研发阶段项目驱动创新与客户增长** "R"阶段项目贡献约70%新客户 过去7年约35%的新客户成功融资 公司在小分子"R"阶段市场渗透率约40% 过去五年小分子候选药物分子量增加14%[5] * **TIDES业务成为主要增长引擎** 2025年TIDES（多肽和寡核苷酸）收入预计超100亿元人民币 同比增长超80% 已交付超58吨多肽 拥有23个GLP-1相关项目 其中16个处于临床II期或III期 约占26%市场份额[6] * **开发与制造项目彰显行业地位** 在2024年及上半年全球213个涉及许可和并购交易的分子中 公司参与其中62个（29%）的"D"或"M"阶段项目 全球销售额前十的小分子药物中 公司帮助生产其中4个（2024年）/5个（2030年预估）[6] * **运营效率构筑竞争壁垒** 通过数字化工具和自动化将设施利用率从60%提升至72% 新工厂投产时间从两年缩短至两个月 支撑其45%毛利率和30%调整后净利润率[7] * **全球化扩张战略** 超过85%的资本支出投入高需求的后期D&M能力 在美国和新加坡的重大绿地项目旨在构建全球制造网络 满足客户本地化供应链需求[7] **其他重要内容** * **市场地位与投资主题** 公司是中国最大的合同研究、开发与生产组织（CRDMO） 2022年在中国外包市场占有28%份额 在全球临床开发中小分子新药项目中占16%份额（按项目数量） 投资逻辑基于小分子CRDMO领域竞争温和、业务多元化以及TIDES业务的强劲增长[8][15] * **估值与目标价** 基于DCF估值 A股目标价138.00人民币（WACC 9.8% 终值增长率3.0%） H股目标价138.00港币（WACC 10.2% 终值增长率3.0%）[9][10][16][17] * **风险因素** 下行风险包括地缘政治风险、海外CDMO竞争、产品开发失败影响声誉、生物科技投资亏损 上行风险包括地缘政治环境改善、生物科技融资早于预期、项目增长快于预期[12][13][19] **财务数据引用** * TIDES业务2025年收入超100亿元人民币[6] * 过去五年小分子候选药物分子量增加14%[5] * 设施利用率从60%提升至72%[7] * 毛利率45% 调整后净利润率30%[7] * 资本支出超85%投入后期D&M能力[7]

**公司概况** - 上海君实生物 一家处于商业化阶段的生物科技公司 专注于肿瘤学和自身免疫性疾病领域 拥有超过15种临床阶段资产[11][55] - 核心商业化产品包括PD-1抑制剂特瑞普利单抗（拓益）、阿达木单抗（自免疾病）、民得维（抗新冠）和昂戈瑞西单抗（降血脂）[11][55] **核心产品与收入驱动** - 特瑞普利单抗（PD-1）是未来三年主要收入驱动力 2024年中国销售额达15亿元（同比增长66%） 2025年上半年销售额达9.54亿元（同比增长42.3%）[4][29] - 2024年新增四大适应症纳入国家医保目录（NRDL）：围手术期非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）、一线肾细胞癌（RCC）、一线广泛期小细胞肺癌（ES-SCLC）和一线PD-L1阳性三阴性乳腺癌（TNBC） 其中围手术期NSCLC贡献显著增量销售[9] - 2025年将参与一线肝细胞癌（HCC）和一线黑色素瘤的NRDL谈判 预计未来两年中国获批适应症将扩至16-17个（当前12个）[9] - 预计2025-27年销售额复合年增长率（CAGR）达20% 2027年实现盈亏平衡[4][34] **研发管线与关键候选药物** - JS207（PD-1/VEGF双抗）是核心关注点 已启动8项II期临床试验 覆盖鳞状/非鳞状NSCLC、TNBC、结直肠癌（CRC）和肝细胞癌（HCC）[3][12] - 预计2025年底/2026年初公布早期数据（如客观缓解率ORR） 临床数据读出是验证其潜力和对外授权（BD）的关键[3][15] - 其他重要临床阶段资产包括： - 全球首创BTLA抗体tifcemalimab（JS004） 正在进行全球III期小细胞肺癌（LS-SCLC）研究 预计2026年中期完成患者入组[16][17] - DKK1抗体JS015 是肿瘤治疗领域唯一积极进展的DKK1药物 早期数据显潜力（一线CRC ORR 75% 一线胃癌ORR 60%）[19][20] - CD20/CD3双抗JS203 早期数据显示80% ORR和40%完全缓解率（CR） grade 3+ TEAE为21.7%[22][24] - PD-1/IL-2（JS213）和EGFR/HER3 ADC（JS212）等早期候选药物等待临床数据去风险[27] **财务预测与估值** - 收入预测：2025年25.51亿元（+31%） 2026年31.97亿元（+25%） 2027年38.56亿元（+21%）[6][39] - 盈利预测：2025年净亏损9.02亿元 2026年净亏损3.46亿元 2027年实现净利润0.92亿元[6][39] - 目标价34.70港元 基于风险调整后DCF模型（WACC 12.3% 永续增长率4%） 对应2.4倍风险调整后市销率（P/S） 与生物科技同行中位数（2.3倍）一致[2][5][38] - 估值敏感性分析： - 上行情景（45.20港元）：JS207中国/海外风险调整峰值销售额达33/170亿元[47][49] - 下行情景（17.60港元）：JS207中国/海外风险调整峰值销售额仅10/51亿元[47][51] **风险与催化剂** - 主要风险：关键临床试验失败、商业化药物价格竞争加剧、特瑞普利单抗销售不及预期、对外授权进度或付款低于预期[57] - 潜在催化剂：JS207的早期临床数据读出、PD-1/IL-2和EGFR/HER3 ADC的首次人体数据、DKK1和CD3/CD20的III期试验启动、BTLA III期入组完成[3][60] **市场表现与同业对比** - 年初至今股价上涨167%（同期HSBIO指数上涨100%） 自5月20日3SBio与辉瑞达成PD-1/VEGF合作后上涨约100% 市场已部分反映JS207对外授权预期[2][9] - 当前市值317亿港元（40.8亿美元） 2025年预测市销率10.9倍 2027年预测市盈率302.3倍 估值高于部分同行（如恒瑞医药、信达生物）但低于康方生物（Akeso）[7][45] **其他重要信息** - 2025年股权激励计划解锁条件：2025-27年累计收入达到24/54/90亿元 或2025/26年净亏损较2024年收窄29%/76% 2027年实现盈亏平衡[34][35] - 现金状况：2024年底现金25亿元 预计2025年底降至24亿元 2026年进一步降至17亿元[6][52]

(v) This author is a registered US equity research analyst who is subject to US FINRA Rule 2241 and who may write debt research under FINRA Rule 2242. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 22. Completed: 24-Sep-25, 22:15 GMT Released: 25-Sep-25, 04:00 GMT Restricted - External SIGNATURE Equity Research 25 September 2025 Equity Strategy Lost My Chain-of-Thought: Could the AI narrative stumble? We remain constructive on AI as an investment theme, but explore some 'what- ...

行业与公司 * 研究主题为全球能源安全 特别是电力电网在人工智能和国防背景下的核心作用[1][6] * 报告由高盛全球投资研究部的商品分析师撰写 聚焦于电网投资及其对大宗商品（尤其是铜）需求的影响[1][4][10] 核心观点与论据 **1 电网是能源安全的薄弱环节且投资需求迫切** * 西方电网严重老化 欧洲电网平均年龄达50年 北美为40年 已接近设计寿命末期[1][13] * 美国电力需求增长已开始对区域市场构成压力 弗吉尼亚州的PJM电力市场在2022年遭遇严重输电瓶颈 2024年夏季美国13个区域电力市场中有9个已达到临界紧张状态 预计到2030年除一个外都将达到临界紧张状态[13] * 相比之下 中国电网较新 过去20年持续投资使其发电能力扩大了7倍[14] **2 电网对人工智能和国防至关重要 成为国家安全优先事项** * 人工智能深度融入国防领域 美国国防部2023年的人工智能相关合同总额达43亿美元 约为下一高的联邦机构NASA的90倍[22] * 国防依赖电网实现雷达 安全通信和基地运营等核心功能 美国99%的军事基地从民用电网取电 2021年国防部设施经历了超过6200次计划外停电 总时长近3500天[29] * 人工智能同样依赖电网 数据中心是全球人工智能的支柱 其全球耗电量已超过法国或英国 预计到2030年将超过俄罗斯的总需求并接近印度当前的需求水平 超过90%的数据中心运营商将电力供应列为首要关切[30] * 北约提出到2035年国防支出占GDP 5%的承诺 其中1.5%指定用于国家安全相关基础设施 这使得电网升级成为政策优先事项[39] **3 电网升级将驱动金属需求 特别是铜** * 高盛股票分析师预计西方电网投资将大幅增长 欧洲投资到2035年预计增长55% 美国投资到2030年预计增长24%[7] * 约60%的电网投资将用于本地配电网络（铜密集型） 其余用于长距离输电线路（铝更常见）[7] * 预计电网和电力基础设施将驱动本十年末前约60%的全球铜需求增长 相当于在全球需求基础上再增加一个美国的需求量 支撑了看涨的铜价预测：2027年达到每吨10,750美元[10][44] * 中国仍是最大驱动因素 约占此增长的一半 但美国和欧洲的份额随着投资加速而增长[10] **4 能源安全还包括确保商品供应来源** * 能源安全不仅需要升级电网（确保电力分配） 还需要确保和多元化商品供应（包括为电网供电的燃料）[45] * 各地区能源进口依赖度不同 美国基本能源独立 中国通过发展可再生能源（基于其控制的金属）和国内煤炭生产将能源进口依赖度降至约15% 欧洲仍有约45%的能源依赖进口[45] * 商品供应日益集中在地缘政治或贸易争端热点地区（如中东 俄罗斯 美国和中国） 供应中断风险上升[46] 其他重要内容 * 针对能源设施的网络攻击自2020年以来增加了四倍 并且因人工智能而变得更加复杂[35] * 电网 国防和人工智能三者相互依存 电网支撑国防和人工智能 而国防（越来越多地使用人工智能）则需保护电网免受物理和网络攻击[35] * 数据中心运营商已成为电网所需设备（如变压器）的主要买家 与公用事业公司直接竞争 反而拖慢了电网扩建速度[31]

涉及的行业和公司 * 公司为药明康德 业务涵盖化学药物合同研究、开发和生产组织 是小分子、肽类、核苷酸药物开发全价值链的领先平台[11] * 行业为医药研发外包服务 即CRO和CRDMO行业[2][11] 核心财务数据与业绩指引 * 公司重申2025年营收指引为425亿至435亿元人民币[2] * 预计非国际财务报告准则净利润率将改善[2] * 瑞银预计公司2025年每股收益为5.23元人民币 高于市场共识的4.83元[8] * 预计2025年EBIT利润率为35.5% 2029年预计提升至39.4%[6] * 预计2025年股本自由现金流收益率为3.5% 2029年预计提升至8.1%[6] 业务板块表现与增长驱动 * TIDES业务是化学业务增长的关键驱动力 2025年收入目标为同比增长80%[3] * 化学业务整体目标为同比增长20%以上 其中非TIDES部分增长约7%[3] * 公司预计药物产品（DP）可能成为继TIDES之后长期收入增长的下一个关键驱动力[3] * 测试和生物学板块正看到全球和中国研发活动的逐步复苏 H125临床前服务新订单同比增长14.5%[4] * 新订单增长区域以欧盟最高（+30.7%） 其次为美国（+19.9%）和中国（+11.6%）[4] 运营效率与产能扩张 * 通过采用内部开发的软件（如Pyxis调度系统） 新工厂的投产爬坡期从22.6个月缩短至2.4个月[3] * H125产能利用率提高至72%（2020年为60%）[3] * 自动化系统替代了约90%的小分子生产人力工作和80%的肽类项目人力工作[3] * 公司有信心比同行更好地运营海外产能 目标新加坡基地首个工厂于2027年1月运营 美国基地于2026年底启动固体口服制剂生产 2027年第四季度启动注射剂生产[3] 市场地位与竞争优势 * 在2024年上半年全球授权的合成药物中 有29%（62个）由药明康德服务 且项目保留率为100%[2] * 公司在药物对外授权后赢得了其中九个项目[2] * 公司对其综合CRDMO商业模式、中国的许可热度和资本市场活动充满信心 认为能获取更多份额[2] * 公司对全球研发需求的增长持积极态度 认为美联储降息将有利于此[2] * 公司相信复杂模式的强劲增长将长期推动其增长 一体化能力能有效帮助项目从早期流向后期/商业化阶段[4] 估值与投资建议 * 瑞银基于DCF的目标价为136.10港元（WACC 11.2% 永续增长率3%） 隐含24.1倍2026年预期市盈率[5] * 重申买入评级 并列为CRO行业首选[5] * 当前股价（2025年9月24日）为109.20港元 较目标价有24.6%的上涨空间 加上1.5%的预期股息率 总预期回报为26.2%[7][10] * 瑞银持有该公司1%或以上的普通股[27] 风险因素 * 早期项目向后期阶段推进的数量可能少于预期 原因包括项目延迟或失败超出预期[12] * 地缘政治问题意外升级[12] * 制药公司的研发支出和外包意愿低于预期[12] 其他重要信息 * 公司于2025年9月25日举办了2025年投资者日并庆祝其成立25周年[2] * 定量研究评估显示 分析师对行业结构、监管环境、近期股价表现以及下一份财报相对于市场共识的预期均持积极看法（评分均为4分 满分5分）[14] * 下一个关键催化剂预计是2025年10月31日左右发布的2025年第三季度业绩 需关注TIDES增长、小分子业务以及国内CRO服务的复苏信号[14]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>ab 25 September 2025 China Medtech Expert call takeaways: Pulse check on China's IVD market China IVD market update for Q325 We hosted an expert call with Mr. Fang, an in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) distributor with over 15 years of industry experience. The key topics included: 1) market size, test volume, channel inventory and the competitive landscape in Q325; 2) the implementation status and impact of existing policies in relation to test volume and test fee/reagent prices; and 3) the expert's estimates of market growth and potential competitive dynamics in Q425/2026.</doc> <doc id='2'>Q325 results likely to diverge across test types According to the expert, the market growth in regions under his analysis was as follows: 1) Chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA): -17% YoY in test volume and -25% YoY in revenue. Volume declined QoQ, with a negative impact from panel test unbundling policies. On a monthly basis, the expert noted stabilisation of test volume in September 2025 following declines in July-August. 2) Clinical chemistry: -8% YoY in volume and revenue. Similar to CLIA, the QoQ volume decline for clinical chemistry tests was mainly reflected in July-August 2025. 3) Haematology: +8% YoY in volume and +6% YoY in revenue. The QoQ volume decline was less than 2%, primarily attributable to an off- season for physical examinations. 4) Haemostasis: +3% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ. 5) Point of care tests (POCT): -12% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ.</doc> <doc id='3'>Channel destocking close to an end; import substitution status varies by test With respect to channel inventory, the expert highlighted the following: 1) CLIA: For global brands, channel inventory is equivalent to 10-12 weeks of sales. For local brands, it is equivalent to 8-10 weeks of sales. 2) Haematology: Leading players had channel inventory equivalent to ~6 months of sales last year and have had channel destocking YTD. In terms of import substitution, the expert noted the following: 1) CLIA: Import substitution was accelerated by volume-based procurement (VBP) in Q325, with domestic brands more accepted by grade A tertiary hospitals; the trend is likely to extend into Q425-2026. 2) Clinical chemistry: A stable competitive landscape, with domestic brands commanding a large share. 3) Haematology: Import substitution in lower-tier markets and even some top-tier hospitals; the expert expects the trend to be sustained in Q425-2026. 4) Haemostasis: Ongoing import substitution but at a relatively slow pace.</doc> <doc id='4'>The expert estimates market growth in 2026 for major tests, except CLIA Overall, the expert expects sector-wide test volume to bottom out in Q425, with the negative impact of the test unbundling policy largely reflected. In terms of the 2026 outlook, he thinks major test categories are likely to grow YoY, except for CLIA, for which revenue may continue to decline YoY, given a relatively high base for reagent prices. According to the expert: 1) CLIA: The market size could shrink 10%+ YoY as new prices for tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents are implemented in Q425. The inflection point is most likely to occur in Q426, but it could be as early as Q326. 2) Clinical chemistry: The expert expects market growth below 5% in 2026. 3) Haematology: There is high growth visibility, with a relatively low likelihood of VBP; the expert expects c10% growth in 2026. 4) Haemostasis: The expert thinks this category has a relatively high possibility of VBP. That said, 10% market growth in 2026 could be feasible without VBP.</doc> <doc id='5'>Equities China Healthcare Jun Deng Analyst jun.deng@ubs.com +852-3712 2103 Emma Ma, CFA Associate S1460124070003 emma-mc.ma@ubs.com +86-21-3866 8981 Chen Chen, PhD Analyst chen-zb.chen@ubs.com +86-10-5832 8201 This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 6. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.</doc> <doc id='6'>Expert call key takeaways We hosted an expert call with Mr. Fang, an IVD distributor with over 15 years of industry experience. Below, we present highlights from the meeting. We have made edits for clarity; minor grammatical changes that do not impact the meaning of content have been applied. The opinions expressed by the expert herein do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly for any loss or damage arising out of the use of this information or any part thereof.</doc> <doc id='7'>1. What do you see for China's IVD market growth by revenue and test volume in Q325? According to the expert, the market growth in regions under his analysis was as follows: 1) Chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA): -17% YoY in test volume and -25% YoY in revenue. Volume declined QoQ, with a negative impact from panel test unbundling policies. On a monthly basis, the expert noted stabilisation of test volume in September 2025 following declines in July-August. 2) Clinical chemistry: -8% YoY in volume and revenue. Similar to CLIA, the QoQ volume decline for clinical chemistry tests was mainly reflected in July-August 2025. 3) Haematology: +8% YoY in volume and +6% YoY in revenue. The QoQ volume decline was less than 2%, primarily attributable to an off- season for physical examinations. 4) Haemostasis: +3% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ. 5) Point of care tests (POCT): -12% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ.</doc> <doc id='8'>2. For the haematology business, why did the top two players have notable revenue declines in Q225? In Q225, Mindray and Sysmex had notable revenue declines YoY for the haematology business. This was the opposite of the market expansion observed by the expert. For example, Dymind, the third-largest player in the market, had 10%+ growth in volume and revenue in the first nine months of 2025. In addition, Maccura, another key player, saw single-digit growth in H125.</doc> <doc id='9'>As per the expert, Sysmex's revenue decline in Q225 may be attributable to import substitution and channel destocking. For Mindray, potential reasons for the revenue decline in the quarter include channel destocking and a high revenue base last year.</doc> <doc id='10'>3. What is the level of channel inventory for reagents across test categories? Will channel destocking continue to pressure companies' revenue growth in the near future? At the sector level, the expert estimates channel inventory as of Q325 to be as follows: 1) CLIA: For global brands, channel inventory is equivalent to 10-12 weeks of sales. For local brands, it is equivalent to 8-10 weeks of sales. 2) Clinical chemistry: Not much change in Q325. 3) Haematology: Leading players had channel inventory equivalent to ~6 months of sales last year and have had channel destocking YTD. The expert believes channel destocking may be close to an end for Mindray's haematology business. Heading into Q425, the expert expects a limited impact from channel destocking for leading domestic companies such as Mindray, with relatively low channel inventory in haematology, CLIA and clinical chemistry.</doc> <doc id='11'>4. What is the potential market growth across test categories in Q425-2026? Overall, the expert expects sector-wide test volume to bottom out in Q425, with the negative impact of the test unbundling policy largely reflected.</doc> <doc id='12'>In terms of the 2026 outlook, he thinks major test categories are likely to grow YoY, except for CLIA, for which revenue may continue to decline YoY, given a relatively high base for reagent prices. According to the expert: 1) CLIA: The market size could shrink 10%+ YoY as new prices for tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents are implemented in Q425. The inflection point is most likely to occur in Q426, but it could</doc> <doc id='13'>be as early as Q326. 2) Clinical chemistry: The expert expects market growth below 5% in 2026. 3) Haematology: There is high growth visibility , with a relatively low likelihood of VBP; the expert expects c10% growth in 2026. 4) Haemostasis: The expert thinks this category has a relatively high possibility of VBP. That said, 10% market growth in 2026 could be feasible without VBP.</doc> <doc id='14'>5. What are the current status and potential outlook of import substitution across test categories? 1) CLIA: Import substitution was accelerated by VBP in Q325, with domestic brands more accepted by grade A tertiary hospitals; the trend is likely to extend into Q425- 2026. 2) Clinical chemistry: A stable competitive landscape, with domestic brands commanding a large share. 3) Haematology: Import substitution for local brands, such as Mindray, Dymind and Urit, in some top-tier hospitals, as well as continued import substitution in lower-tier markets; the expert expects the trend to be sustained in Q425- 2026. 4) Haemostasis: Ongoing import substitution but at a relatively slow pace.</doc> <doc id='15'>For Mindray specifically, the expert sees market share gain potential across test types. For example, he believes it could be feasible to gain 2% share annually in CLIA market in the next three years. That said, the potential market share gain in haematology could be modest, given its high market share.</doc> <doc id='16'>6. What will be the actual impact of test volume-related policies in Q325? When do you expect these policies' impact to fade? Can any potential new policies further erode test volume? According to the expert, the test unbundling policy could lead ~15%/~5% volume declines YoY for CLIA/clinical chemistry in Q325. In contrast, the expert thinks there will be a limited impact for haematology and haemostasis. The expert expects the policy impact to fade in Q425, as test unbundling may be largely completed by September 2025. In addition, a few regions had rebundling for some panel tests that were previously unbundled.</doc> <doc id='17'>Beyond test unbundling, the expert foresees a very limited additional impact from DRG implementation and mutual recognition of test results. Moreover, he does not think there will be more new policies to further erode test volume at the sector level.</doc> <doc id='18'>7. For the VBP of tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents, what are the likely implementation timeline and ex-factory price cuts? The expert expects this round of VBP to be implemented starting in October 2025 and to cover most of the participating provinces by December 2025. The ex-factory price adjustment has not been completed yet, although a few companies have adjusted thyroid function reagent prices following the previous VBP in Gansu.</doc> <doc id='19'>On the magnitude of ex-factory price cuts, the expert thinks domestic companies may have 20%+ cuts for tumour markers and 10%+ cuts for thyroid function reagents. For overseas companies, the expert expects further price erosion for tumour biomarkers reagents on top of the price revisions following the previous testing fee correction. For thyroid function reagents, the ex-factory price cuts could reach c30%.</doc> <doc id='20'>8. Which reagents are likely to be covered by the next round of VBP? What is the potential timeline? The expert reiterated his view that CLIA will be the priority for VBP in 2026. Implementation is likely to start in 2027, although the impact could be limited, as major test items under CLIA have been covered by VBP. In addition to CLIA, the expert now thinks the VBP of haemostasis tests may take place in 2026 or 2027. Similar to CLIA, it may take about one year from the result announcement to official implementation for haemostasis VBP, in the expert's view.</doc> <doc id='21'>9. What is the potential impact of Hunan Province's recent test-fee correction for drug-resistant tuberculosis molecular testing? Which tests may be subject to a test-fee correction going forward? The expert expects a limited impact from this initiative, considering the small market size of tuberculosis-related tests in China (Rmb300m+ in total, with the market size of drug- resistant tuberculosis tests amounting to Rmb100m+). Overseas companies such as Cepheid (a member of Danaher Group) and domestic companies such as Zeesan, Ustar and Wantai may have some impact, as per the expert.</doc> <doc id='22'>The expert noted that tests with particularly high fees will be the focus of the upcoming testing fee correction. Thus, the main focus could be CLIA, such as tumour biomarkers, infectious diseases, thyroid functions and myocarditis tests.</doc> <doc id='23'>Valuation Method and Risk Statement We believe the risks facing China's medtech industry include: 1) larger-than-expected price reductions and smaller-than-expected market share gains from medical device VBP programs; 2) weaker-than-expected demand from equipment renewal programs; 3) a greater-than- expected impact from the anti-corruption drive; 4) geopolitical risks affecting the supply chain of medical device products; and 5) slower-than-expected product R&D and technological breakthroughs.</doc> <doc id='24'>Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".</doc> <doc id='25'>For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 25 September 2025 03:15 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses,

涉及的行业或公司 * 公司为京东 (JD O) [1] * 行业涉及中国电子商务、人工智能、物流、零售、医疗健康和工业制造 [1][2][6][7][8][9] 核心观点和论据 公司战略与AI投资 * 京东更新了对AI价值的看法，认为AI价值 = 模型 × 经验 × 对行业的深入理解 [2] * 京东宣布未来三年将投资培育一个价值万亿人民币的AI生态系统 [2] * 公司旨在通过其在各行业垂直领域的供应链技术积累的专业知识，实现AI的可持续发展，为行业带来价值 [2] 新产品与技术发布 * 京东宣布其升级后的大型模型品牌 JoyAI，并发布了三款面向个人消费者的新AI产品 [3][5] * "京犀"：集成AI的购物和本地生活超级应用，支持语音控制交易 [5] * "Ta"：通用数字助理代理，可创建AI代理并嵌入智能硬件 [5] * "JoyInside Embodied Intelligence"：软硬件集成解决方案，已使用户主动对话平均增长超过120%，并被30多个顶级品牌和10多家领先机器人公司采用 [6] * 京东宣布升级三大AI基础设施：数字人平台4.0、JoyAgent 3.0智能平台和JoyCode 2.0编码平台 [10] 行业应用与效率提升 * 京东在四个关键领域宣布了AI进展 [6] * **物流**：升级了全多模态的物流超级大脑大模型2.0，并发布首款"智能机械臂"以解决大量非标准化包裹的自动化问题，旨在提高物流和仓储效率及准确性 [7] * **零售**：推出基于JoyAI模型的Oxygen电商AI架构，并在10月发布的JD应用16.0版本升级中增加智能搜索和推荐功能"Aigou"，利用自然语言交互提供个性化购物体验 [8] * **医疗健康**：推出行业"首个"能理解医疗报告和患者描述的医疗大模型"京医千寻2.0"，并赋能新的JD Health AI Hospital 1.0 [9] * **工业**：发布行业"首个"工业供应链大模型JoyIndustrial，基于超过5700万种产品的数据训练，旨在提高效率并降低成本 [9] * 分析认为京东的AI物流和电商供应链解决方案将提升运营效率并优化行业流程，增强其对其供应链合作伙伴的价值主张和竞争力 [1] 财务分析与投资建议 * 花旗维持对京东的"买入"评级，目标价为44美元，基于12倍2026年非GAAP每股收益3.66美元 [1][11] * 目标市盈率隐含相对于2025-2027年预计收益复合年增长率23%约50%的折价，该折价被认为是合理的，因京东积极进军外卖等可能损害其利润增长且竞争和支出正常化时间不确定的领域 [11] * 当前股价为35.17美元，预期股价回报率为25.1%，预期股息收益率为3.7%，预期总回报率为28.8%，市值为565.48亿美元 [3] 其他重要内容 潜在风险 * 主要下行风险包括：1) 中国电商和外卖领域竞争加剧 2) 对物流配送和海外计划的大量投资可能拖累利润率 3) 利润率轨迹和早期盈利能见度不足 4) 中国经济进一步放缓可能影响消费者支出 [12] 市场背景 * 分析认为中国正进入AI应用加速期，互联网和其他技术平台加大投资推动了多种类型的AI技术创新 [1] * 除了像阿里云这样的云基础设施提供商的LLM，预计将看到更多垂直平台参与投资/发布行业AI模型/解决方案，利用其核心专业领域的经验和知识来支持其垂直业务合作伙伴 [1]

Equity Research 25 September 2025 U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment NVDA's Vision Coming to Life: $2T and Counting When tracking AI capacity additions over the LTM, AI TAMs don't seem so outlandish anymore and NVDA looks like the most interesting name in our group. When Jensen first forecast a $1T industry by the end of the decade, we admittedly balked. With the wave of announcements that have come over the last 6-9mo, we now estimate over $2T of planned spend at ~40GW of power in total. ...

September 28, 2025 08:11 PM GMT Yili Industrial | Asia Pacific NDR Feedback - Focus on Raw Milk Supply Cycle and Key Product Category Strategy Key Takeaways Key questions from investors: 1. When will raw milk reach supply/demand balance? Management cited two positive signs: cow herds dropping sequentially and non-contractual raw milk prices rebounding. It expects a balance in 2026. 2. What are the next 3-5 year targets? Yili is still drafting its next 5-year plan. General directions are for: 1) liquid milk ...

**行业与公司** * 涉及中国宏观经济与货币政策[1] * 涉及中国工业利润与原材料行业（如钢铁）[4] * 涉及中国政府债券（CGB）市场[1][2][3] **核心观点与论据** * 中国人民银行货币政策立场未变 第三季度货币政策委员会声明与第二季度基本一致 但不再将经济描述为“显示积极势头” 原因是近几个月经济数据疲软[1] * 长期中国政府债券收益率持续攀升 原因是债转股轮动以及市场对CGB投资增税的预期 图表显示10年期和30年期CGB收益率走势[1][2][3] * 尽管仍预期第四季度有政策利率和存款准备金率下调 但鉴于央行近期强调数据依赖性 可能需要经济活动显著疲弱才会触发[1] * 8月工业利润显著改善 环比增长8.0% 高于7月的3.7%增长 但工业收入在过去两个月基本保持不变[4][9] * 钢铁等原材料行业盈利能力显著改善 暗示政府的“反内卷”政策正在发挥作用 但国家统计局评论称8月利润改善主要得益于成本降低 这凸显了中国对抗通缩的难度[4] * 欧洲投资者对中国科技与创新中期展望普遍持建设性态度 但对近期的通缩、企业盈利和家庭消费存在持续担忧 对人民币看法不强 因美元方向不明 对中国利率看法分歧 部分客户认为债转股轮动可能推动长期CGB收益率进一步走高 另一部分则认为这可能是做多的机会[10] **其他重要内容** * 文档包含大量监管披露、免责声明和法律合规信息 强调研究报告仅供参考 不构成个人投资建议 投资者应自行决策并注意风险[5][15][16][17][18][25][26][27][28][31][38] * 列出了高盛近期关于中国宏观经济的部分研究报告标题 涵盖家庭储蓄、产能过剩、出口、PMI、CPI、房地产价格等多个主题[11][13] * 提供了分析团队成员的姓名和联系方式[6]