通胀数据表现 - 美国8月整体通胀年率29% 核心通胀年率31% 均高于美联储2%目标[2][4] - 8月CPI环比上涨04% 主要由住房指数上涨04%推动 食品指数上涨05% 能源指数上涨07% 汽油价格大幅上涨19%[6] - 航空票价、二手车和服装价格上升也对月度通胀增长产生贡献[6] 市场预期与美联储政策 - 经济学家普遍认为该数据强化了美联储9月降息的理由[3] - 尽管通胀高于目标 但观察PPI和CPI数据后认为通胀可控 支持渐进式降息路径而非激进转向[4] - 市场叙事已从"是否9月降息"转变为"9月确定降息后将有多少次降息"[5] 市场反应 - SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust上涨083%至65763美元 Invesco QQQ Trust ETF上涨058%至58408美元[7] - 期货市场表现分化 标普500、道琼斯和纳斯达克100指数期货交易涨跌互现[7] 政策制定者观点 - 特朗普总统要求美联储"大幅降低利率" 并批评美联储主席鲍威尔政策表现[2] - 经济学家沃尔弗斯引用数据反驳"无通胀"说法 强调29%的整体通胀率[1][2]

(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Well, that was a relief. U.S. CPI was on the firmer side but not so much that you'd notice. Some of the prices that feed into core PCE were surprisingly benign, leading analysts to trim their forecasts to +0.2% m/m and a steady 2.9% on the year. So it's all go for the Federal Reserve to resume its easing cycle with 25 basis points next week, though it's notable markets see just a 7% chance of a bumper 50bps. You would ass ...

In a separate reading, initial jobless claims for the week ended September 6 stood at 263,000, at a near four-year high. "Inflation has been sticky ... Whether we would call it stagflation or not, people have different definitions of it. But certainly we are in a period that is unusual relative to the last several years, as the job market is slowing down considerably while inflation does not follow suit," said Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings in New York. Sheth predicted the Fed will red ...

双边交易本币结算框架 - 中国人民银行与印度尼西亚央行共同启动双边交易本币结算框架[1] - LCT框架将本币结算范围从经常账户和直接投资拓展至国际收支全部项目[1] - 2025年1月至7月，印尼与中国在LCT框架下的本币结算规模达62.3亿美元，占印尼与所有贸易伙伴本币结算总规模的45%[2] 二维码互联互通合作 - 中国与印尼跨境二维码互联互通项目正式启动双向试点运行，预计于2025年内正式全面投产[2] - 二维码互联互通项目采用本币结算方式，是双方支付合作的重要进展[2] 金融合作机制与协议 - 两国央行决定建立联合工作机制，以提高双边合作机制化水平[3] - 双方于2025年5月签署合作备忘录，将2020年建立的本币结算框架升级为LCT框架[1] - 2025年2月，双方续签规模为4000亿元人民币/878万亿印尼卢比的双边本币互换协议，协议有效期五年[4] 合作背景与意义 - 金融合作深化得益于两国不断加深的政治互信，并顺应日益紧密的经贸关系发展需要[2] - 合作旨在深化支付系统联通、本币使用、金融市场开放联通及数字货币等领域的合作[2] - 合作有助于提升金融安全性和包容性，并推动全球治理体系向更加公平合理的方向发展[2]

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Join for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too. You do not need to pay for the costly lessons from the market itself.Sensor Unlimited contributes to the investing group Envision Early Retirement which is led by Sensor Unlimited. They offer proven solutions to generate both high income and high growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation. Features include: two model portfolios - one for short-term survival/withdrawal and one for aggressive long-term growth, dire ...

美股市场表现 - 美国股市飙升至历史新高纪录 [1] - 市场乐观情绪由美联储降息预期推动 [1] - 降息时机可能恰逢其时以维持华尔街涨势 [1]

欧元/美元汇率 - 欧元兑美元汇率周四上涨+0.37% [1] - 汇率走强因欧洲央行维持利率不变并上调2025年欧元区GDP预测至+1.2%（原预测为+0.9%）[1][5] - 欧洲央行行长拉加德鹰派言论提振欧元 其表示通缩过程已结束且增长风险更趋平衡 暗示加息周期完结 [1][4] 美联储政策预期 - 市场预计9月FOMC会议降息25基点的概率为100% 降息50基点的概率为10% [2] - 市场预计10月会议再次降息25基点的概率为97% [2] - 预计至年底联邦基金利率将累计下调73基点至3.60%（现为4.33%）[2] 美国经济数据 - 美国8月CPI同比上涨+2.9% 符合预期 7月为+2.7% [3] - 8月核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）同比上涨+3.1% 与7月持平且符合预期 [3] - 美国当周初请失业金人数意外增加+27,000人至26.3万人 为3.75年新高 预期为降至23.5万人 显示劳动力市场疲软 [3][4] 美元指数表现 - 美元指数周四下跌-0.28% [4] - 美元承压因疲软就业数据强化美联储降息预期 且股市走强降低美元流动性需求 [4] - 对美联储独立性的担忧也拖累美元 因特朗普试图解雇美联储理事Cook以及Stephen Miran的任职争议 [3] 日元汇率 - 美元兑日元汇率周四下跌-0.24% [7] - 日元走强因日本Q3大型制造业景气指数升至3.8（Q1为-4.8）且8月PPI同比上涨+2.7%（7月为+2.5%）符合预期 [7][8] - 此前有报道称日本央行官员认为今年可能再次加息 且美债收益率下降亦支撑日元 [7] 贵金属价格 - 12月黄金期货周四收盘下跌-8.40美元（-0.23%）12月白银期货上涨+0.549美元（+1.32%）[9] - 金价承压因欧洲央行鹰派立场及股市走强削弱避险需求 [9] - 金价跌幅受限因美元走弱及地缘政治风险升温 波兰击落无人机事件被称作"侵略行为" [10] - 中国人民银行连续第十个月增持黄金 8月增加0.06百万金衡盎司至74.02百万金衡盎司 [10] 其他市场因素 - 央行政策分化支撑欧元 市场认为欧洲央行已结束降息而美联储预计年内降息三次 [5] - 地缘政治风险及法国日本的政治不确定性（法国总理Bayrou及日本首相Ishiba辞职）推升黄金的避险需求 [10][11] - 贵金属ETF持仓增加 黄金ETF持仓达2.25年新高 白银ETF持仓达3年新高 [12]