Builders are sensitive to lumber pricing. But they are likely to weather the new tariffs, one analyst says. ...

公司运营表现 - 在2025财年前九个月，房屋交付量同比下降6.9%至61,495套，净销售订单量下降6.2%至63,345套 [1] - 为应对销量下滑，公司通过旗下DHI Mortgage提供3.99%的FHA贷款等销售激励措施以提振客户信心 [2] - 预计2025财年第四季度房屋交付量在23,500至24,000套之间，与去年同期交付的23,647套基本持平 [2] 公司盈利能力与展望 - 销售激励措施的增加正在侵蚀利润率，若此趋势持续将对长期产生不利影响 [3] - 预计2025财年第四季度房屋销售毛利率在21%至21.5%之间，同比下降23.6%，环比下降21.8% [4] - 尽管短期措施可能难以提振利润，但中长期前景似乎有所改善，分析师对其潜力持乐观态度 [15] - 2025财年每股收益预期同比下降17.8%，但2026财年预期显示将增长2.2% [12] 行业竞争格局 - 美国住房市场的持续疲软不仅影响D R Horton，也冲击其他主要住宅建筑商，如PulteGroup和Toll Brothers [5] - 抵押贷款利率徘徊在数十年高位附近且负担能力紧张，导致新房需求放缓，给销量和利润率带来压力 [5] - PulteGroup因产品组合更均衡而出现客流量和取消率放缓，Toll Brothers在豪华细分市场受益于高收入买家的相对韧性 [6] - 供应链正常化有助于成本管理，但吸收率放缓拖累社区增长计划 [7] 股票表现与估值 - 过去三个月公司股价上涨28.2%，表现优于其所在行业、更广泛的建筑板块以及标普500指数 [8] - 公司股票目前交易于远期12个月市盈率13.7倍，相对于行业同行存在溢价，表明市场对其潜力的认可 [11]

[Music] Over the summer, many of the home builders started rallying in anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed. But now the Feds start cutting and the group keeps rolling over. So what's going on here.Didn't we want rate cuts to jolt the industry out of the doldrums. Well, let's look at what happened when some of the key home builders recently reported. First, we got Lenar, the Miami based developer that's become one of the largest home builders in the country.Lenar kicked these off last Thursday when they r ...

Welcome back to Squawk on the Street. Real estate one of the worst performing sectors on the year behind just health care and consumer staples. All underperformers.Home wielders across the board remain in correction territory which means they're 10% or more from their 52- week highs. Lenar is the worst of the group. And then watch KB Home shares today reducing fullear sales guidance due to lower prices.The company COO saying on the call they're not seeing the uptick in demand they'd expect given the recent ...

U.S. equity markets concluded Wednesday, September 24, 2025, with a subdued performance, extending the pullback observed on Tuesday. This followed a remarkable three-day streak of record highs for major indexes, as investors digested cautionary remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a mixed bag of corporate news. The overarching sentiment was one of profit-taking and a re-evaluation of market valuations, particularly in the technology sector, amidst ongoing concerns about inflation and the fut ...

Key Takeaways Toll Brothers benefits from affluent buyers, $6.4B backlog and ASPs above $1M.D.R. Horton leverages scale, affordability focus and $5.5B liquidity to sustain growth.TOL trades at a lower P/E than DHI, with stronger ROE and better near-term upside potential.Toll Brothers (TOL) and D.R. Horton (DHI) are two leading U.S. homebuilders with distinct market focuses. Toll Brothers is famed for its luxury homes and affluent customer base, while D.R. Horton is America’s largest homebuilder, dominating ...

D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI ) is the U.S.’s largest homebuilder by delivered homes, solidifying its position after the company has continued to capture market share during the past three decades. D.R. Horton now operatesI am an avid investor with a major focus on small cap companies with experience in investing in US, Canadian, and European markets. My investment philosophy to generating great returns on the stock market revolves around identifying mispriced securities by understanding the drivers behind a compa ...

The U.S. housing market is sending conflicting signals, with new data revealing a sharp decline in construction activity that is expected to tighten supply, just as a recent Federal Reserve rate cut aims to stimulate demand.The emerging affordability crisis is highlighted by a stark contrast: while government data indicate a slowdown, legendary investor Warren Buffett has been investing billions in major homebuilders.Construction Slumps, Squeezing Future SupplyThe latest New Residential Construction report ...

美联储降息政策 - 美联储自12月以来首次降息25个基点 将基准利率下调至4%-4.25%区间 并暗示后续将继续降息以支撑劳动力市场[1][10] - 降息举措利好对利率敏感的小盘股和可选消费类股票 罗素2000小盘股指数创近四年新高 标普500指数年内涨幅超13%[2][10] 房地产行业表现 - PHLX住房指数本季度大涨15% 显著跑赢标普500指数7%的涨幅 但年内表现仍落后于基准指数[5][11] - 头部房企表现突出：DR Horton本季度涨幅超30% KB Home和Toll Brothers涨幅均超20% 家装零售商Lowe's和Home Depot分别上涨约20%和13%[5][11] - 30年期固定利率抵押贷款利率降至6.39% 为2024年10月初以来最低水平 Keefe Bruyette & Woods分析师预计年底可能接近6%[6][11] 货币政策传导机制 - 抵押贷款利率与10年期美债收益率关联度更高 当前收益率从5月的4.6%降至4.13% 降幅大于联邦基金利率[8][11] - 若抵押利率能降至5%区间 将被视为重要阈值 可能为疲软的住房市场注入活力[7][11] - 8月美国独栋住宅开工量骤降至近两年半低点 鲍威尔主席明确表示住房部门活动"疲弱"[11] 经济数据与市场预期 - 未来一周将公布成屋销售和新屋销售数据 住房交易量提升通常有利于经济活动[9][11] - 美联储强调未预设利率路径 成员间存在分歧 可能导致经济数据（尤其是劳动市场和通胀数据）公布时市场波动加剧[9][11] - 持续坚挺的通胀可能迫使央行维持较高利率水平 今年降息幅度仍存不确定性[8][11]

住房市场现状 - 新屋开工年率下降至130万套 远低于经济学家预期[2] - 建筑行业过去四个月出现裁员 加剧失业问题[3] - 美国住房短缺达到470万套的历史新高[8] 房价与收入对比 - 2025年房价中位数416,900美元与收入中位数83,150美元之比达5倍[4] - 1985年房价收入比为3.5倍（房价82,800美元 vs 收入23,620美元）[4] - 经通胀调整后 2024年房价较1965年上涨100%[6][13] 政策应对措施 - 财政部宣布将采取新措施解决住房成本问题[9] - 可能宣布国家住房紧急状态并推出首购补贴 首付援助 简化审批等政策[10] - 联邦土地可能用于新开发项目[10] 利率政策影响 - 美联储预计未来12个月进行4-5次降息[16] - 30年期抵押贷款利率可能从6.26%降至4.5%-5.5%区间[17][18] - 降息可能引发竞价战争并推高房价[19] 投资机会分析 - 建议关注头部建筑商：Lennar/LEN、PulteGroup/PHM、DR Horton/DHI等[12] - 住房科技股推荐：Zillow/Z、Opendoor/OPEN、Compass/COMP、Rocket Mortgage/RKT[12][21] - 政策干预可能引发近二十年来最强的住房繁荣[11] 市场供需矛盾 - 住房可负担性处于历史最低水平[7] - 供应量接近历史低点[7] - 年轻人无力购房 老年业主惜售 新建设跟不上需求[8]