Key Takeaways D.R. Horton's home closings fell 6.9% with net sales orders down 6.2% in the first nine months of fiscal 2025.Incentives like a 3.99% FHA loan aim to lift demand, with Q4 closings expected at 23,500-24,000 units.DHI projects Q4 gross margin of 21%-21.5%, down from 23.6% a year ago, reflecting housing market weakness.The United States’ homebuilding market has been experiencing choppy weather for the past few years, which is directly hampering the profitability scale for operating homebuilders, ...

[Music] Over the summer, many of the home builders started rallying in anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed. But now the Feds start cutting and the group keeps rolling over. So what's going on here.Didn't we want rate cuts to jolt the industry out of the doldrums. Well, let's look at what happened when some of the key home builders recently reported. First, we got Lenar, the Miami based developer that's become one of the largest home builders in the country.Lenar kicked these off last Thursday when they r ...

Welcome back to Squawk on the Street. Real estate one of the worst performing sectors on the year behind just health care and consumer staples. All underperformers.Home wielders across the board remain in correction territory which means they're 10% or more from their 52- week highs. Lenar is the worst of the group. And then watch KB Home shares today reducing fullear sales guidance due to lower prices.The company COO saying on the call they're not seeing the uptick in demand they'd expect given the recent ...

U.S. equity markets concluded Wednesday, September 24, 2025, with a subdued performance, extending the pullback observed on Tuesday. This followed a remarkable three-day streak of record highs for major indexes, as investors digested cautionary remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a mixed bag of corporate news. The overarching sentiment was one of profit-taking and a re-evaluation of market valuations, particularly in the technology sector, amidst ongoing concerns about inflation and the fut ...

Key Takeaways Toll Brothers benefits from affluent buyers, $6.4B backlog and ASPs above $1M.D.R. Horton leverages scale, affordability focus and $5.5B liquidity to sustain growth.TOL trades at a lower P/E than DHI, with stronger ROE and better near-term upside potential.Toll Brothers (TOL) and D.R. Horton (DHI) are two leading U.S. homebuilders with distinct market focuses. Toll Brothers is famed for its luxury homes and affluent customer base, while D.R. Horton is America’s largest homebuilder, dominating ...

D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI ) is the U.S.’s largest homebuilder by delivered homes, solidifying its position after the company has continued to capture market share during the past three decades. D.R. Horton now operatesI am an avid investor with a major focus on small cap companies with experience in investing in US, Canadian, and European markets. My investment philosophy to generating great returns on the stock market revolves around identifying mispriced securities by understanding the drivers behind a compa ...

The U.S. housing market is sending conflicting signals, with new data revealing a sharp decline in construction activity that is expected to tighten supply, just as a recent Federal Reserve rate cut aims to stimulate demand.The emerging affordability crisis is highlighted by a stark contrast: while government data indicate a slowdown, legendary investor Warren Buffett has been investing billions in major homebuilders.Construction Slumps, Squeezing Future SupplyThe latest New Residential Construction report ...

美联储降息政策 - 美联储自12月以来首次降息25个基点 将基准利率下调至4%-4.25%区间 并暗示后续将继续降息以支撑劳动力市场[1][10] - 降息举措利好对利率敏感的小盘股和可选消费类股票 罗素2000小盘股指数创近四年新高 标普500指数年内涨幅超13%[2][10] 房地产行业表现 - PHLX住房指数本季度大涨15% 显著跑赢标普500指数7%的涨幅 但年内表现仍落后于基准指数[5][11] - 头部房企表现突出：DR Horton本季度涨幅超30% KB Home和Toll Brothers涨幅均超20% 家装零售商Lowe's和Home Depot分别上涨约20%和13%[5][11] - 30年期固定利率抵押贷款利率降至6.39% 为2024年10月初以来最低水平 Keefe Bruyette & Woods分析师预计年底可能接近6%[6][11] 货币政策传导机制 - 抵押贷款利率与10年期美债收益率关联度更高 当前收益率从5月的4.6%降至4.13% 降幅大于联邦基金利率[8][11] - 若抵押利率能降至5%区间 将被视为重要阈值 可能为疲软的住房市场注入活力[7][11] - 8月美国独栋住宅开工量骤降至近两年半低点 鲍威尔主席明确表示住房部门活动"疲弱"[11] 经济数据与市场预期 - 未来一周将公布成屋销售和新屋销售数据 住房交易量提升通常有利于经济活动[9][11] - 美联储强调未预设利率路径 成员间存在分歧 可能导致经济数据（尤其是劳动市场和通胀数据）公布时市场波动加剧[9][11] - 持续坚挺的通胀可能迫使央行维持较高利率水平 今年降息幅度仍存不确定性[8][11]

住房市场现状 - 新屋开工年率下降至130万套 远低于经济学家预期[2] - 建筑行业过去四个月出现裁员 加剧失业问题[3] - 美国住房短缺达到470万套的历史新高[8] 房价与收入对比 - 2025年房价中位数416,900美元与收入中位数83,150美元之比达5倍[4] - 1985年房价收入比为3.5倍（房价82,800美元 vs 收入23,620美元）[4] - 经通胀调整后 2024年房价较1965年上涨100%[6][13] 政策应对措施 - 财政部宣布将采取新措施解决住房成本问题[9] - 可能宣布国家住房紧急状态并推出首购补贴 首付援助 简化审批等政策[10] - 联邦土地可能用于新开发项目[10] 利率政策影响 - 美联储预计未来12个月进行4-5次降息[16] - 30年期抵押贷款利率可能从6.26%降至4.5%-5.5%区间[17][18] - 降息可能引发竞价战争并推高房价[19] 投资机会分析 - 建议关注头部建筑商：Lennar/LEN、PulteGroup/PHM、DR Horton/DHI等[12] - 住房科技股推荐：Zillow/Z、Opendoor/OPEN、Compass/COMP、Rocket Mortgage/RKT[12][21] - 政策干预可能引发近二十年来最强的住房繁荣[11] 市场供需矛盾 - 住房可负担性处于历史最低水平[7] - 供应量接近历史低点[7] - 年轻人无力购房 老年业主惜售 新建设跟不上需求[8]

核心观点 - 公司在充满挑战的住房建筑市场中凭借其严谨的运营模式实现了稳健表现 净销售订单在2025财年第三季度同比增长0.3%至23,071套 同时建筑周期缩短数周 资本效率提升 并保持行业领先的规模优势和财务灵活性 [1][2][4][6] 运营表现 - 2025财年第三季度净销售订单同比增长0.3%至23,071套 尽管面临负担能力压力和消费者情绪谨慎 [1] - 建筑周期在2025财年前九个月较2024财年同期缩短数周 运营效率持续提升 [2] - 住宅建筑税前投资回报率(ROI)达22.1%(截至2025年6月30日过去12个月) 流动性达55亿美元 [4] 土地策略 - 截至2025年6月30日 土地储备达601,400块 其中24%为自有土地 76%通过采购合同控制 [3] - 通过加强与土地开发商的合作关系 在他人开发地块上建设更多房屋 提升资本效率和运营灵活性 [3] 竞争优势 - 公司在成交量和收入方面保持行业第一地位 规模优势无可匹敌 [6] - "价值至上"产品策略覆盖从入门级到豪华住宅的多元客户群体 产品组合广度超越Lennar和KB Home [6] - 运营效率和财务纪律使公司能更好应对行业挑战并把握机遇 [7] 财务与估值 - 股价过去三个月上涨40.1% 显著跑赢同业指数和标普500指数 [8] - 远期12个月市盈率为14.12倍 较同业存在溢价 反映市场对其潜力的认可 [11] - 2025财年每股收益预期同比下降17.8% 但2026财年预计增长2.2% 过去60天盈利预期呈上升趋势 [12] 行业地位 - 主要竞争对手包括Lennar Corporation(LEN)和KB Home(KBH) [5] - Lennar专注于改善型住房和活跃长者社区市场 KB Home侧重首次购房者的可定制化设计 [6] - 公司通过规模优势、多元化产品和财务纪律强化行业领导地位 [7]