The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.35%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.03%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.70%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are up +0.23%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are up +0.58%. Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs.  The prospects for additional Fed easing are lifting stocks today on speculation the Fed will tilt toward supporting the labor market, desp ...

all takes us to our talk of the tape. How do you want to be positioned with stocks here at all-time highs. Joining me now is Goldman Sachs's Mina Flynn.Mina, it's great to have you on the show in from the private wealth uh department. What What are you telling your clients at this point now that we have seen such a strong meltup in stocks. Absolutely.Um we're encouraging our clients to continue to stay invested and with incremental capital to really look to put that to work over a 6 to 18month time period. ...

Let's stay on bonds and stocks and markets because we've got new highs across the board for equities. Nearly all major averages on pace for new records. The market seems to have adjusted to tariffs.But what happens if the Supreme Court rules that the tariffs are actually illegal. Would that hurt America's massive debt load. Let's talk about that and more.Joe Leavone is well known to our audience as a markets guy, but now serves as counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant. Joe, good to have you on the p ...

美元指数表现及驱动因素 - 美元指数周四上涨0.50% 受美联储主席鲍威尔言论提振 其表示商品价格上涨正传导至通胀 且FOMC预计通胀将持续至明年 这可能限制美联储进一步降息的空间[1] - 美元涨幅扩大 因美国当周初请失业金人数下降超预期且9月费城联储商业展望调查升至8个月高点 推动国债收益率上升 对美联储政策构成鹰派因素[1] - 市场目前定价10月28-29日FOMC会议再次降息25个基点的概率为93%[4] 美元面临的风险 - 对美联储独立性的担忧可能削弱美元 因特朗普总统试图解雇美联储理事Cook以及Stephen Miran在仍担任白宫经济顾问委员会职务时有意成为美联储理事[2] 关键经济数据 - 美国当周初请失业金人数减少3.3万人至23.1万人 显示劳动力市场强于预期的24万人[3] - 美国9月费城联储商业展望调查上升23.5点至23.2的8个月高点 远强于预期的1.7[3] - 美国8月领先指标环比下降0.5% 弱于预期的下降0.2% 为四个月来最大降幅[3] 欧元兑美元表现及驱动因素 - 欧元兑美元周四下跌0.20% 受美元走强打压[4] - 财政担忧施压欧元 因德国政府表示第四季度借款将比原计划增加约20% 以资助基础设施和武装部队支出激增[4] - 德国财政机构计划在第四季度筹集905亿欧元（1070亿美元） 比12月预测多150亿欧元[5] 欧元跌幅受限的原因 - 欧元跌幅受限因央行政策分化 市场认为ECB基本结束降息周期 而美联储预计年底前还将降息约两次[5] - 掉期市场定价ECB在10月30日政策会议上降息25个基点的概率仅为2%[6] 美元兑日元表现及驱动因素 - 美元兑日元周四上涨0.59% 日元跌至1周低点 受美元走强打压[6] - 日经指数周四飙升至新纪录高点 降低了日元的避险需求[6] - 日元跌幅加速 因周四美国经济数据强于预期推高了国债收益率[6]

货币政策行动 - 美联储于9月17日降息25个基点 为2025年首次降息 [1] - 点阵图预示2025年还将有50个基点的降息 [1] 经济与通胀预测 - 美联储维持2025年核心PCE通胀预期在3.1% 高于2%的目标 [2] - 将2026年核心PCE通胀预期从2.4%上调至2.6% 并上调2027年预期 [2] - 将2025年经济增长预期上调20个基点至1.6% 2026年预期上调20个基点至1.8% [4] 行业影响分析 - 降息对汽车和住房等利率敏感型行业构成利好 有助于提振需求 [6] - 降息对消费 discretionary、零售商和电子商务公司如亚马逊构成积极影响 可刺激消费 [7] - 高负债公司将从利率下降中受益 因其利息支出减少 从而提升盈利能力 [7] - 先买后付公司如Affirm将受益于借贷成本降低 [7] - 成长型股票的未来现金流在降息环境下折现价值更高 [7] 市场特定考量 - 住房市场当前面临挑战 美联储降息影响有限 因市场已提前消化此预期 [6] - 汽车行业仍面临关税不确定性 这将限制福特和通用汽车等公司的上行空间 [6]

美联储利率决议 - 美联储以近乎全票通过的决定将关键利率下调25个基点 仅Stephen Miran一人持异议[2] - 市场预期可能出现多达3张异议票 实际结果远低于预期分歧程度[2] - 投票结果被解读为面对白宫压力时展现机构独立性与团结的信号[2] 白宫与美联储关系 - 特朗普持续施压要求更大幅度降息 并试图解雇美联储理事Lisa Cook[2][4] - 特朗普任命的三位理事（Waller、Bowman、Miran）中仅Miran支持更激进降息[2] - 白宫考虑用特朗普任命官员替代现任主席鲍威尔 任期将于2023年5月结束[2] 人事任命与法律争议 - Stephen Miran在会议开始前数小时经参议院党派投票确认就任美联储理事[2][4] - Lisa Cook通过法律诉讼保住职位 成为美联储112年历史中首遭总统试图解雇的理事[2][4] - Miran同时保留白宫职位（无薪休假）的任命方式被认为非同寻常[4] 经济政策考量 - 通胀率仍明显高于美联储2%目标 同时失业率出现上升[4] - 货币政策面临两难：过度降息可能刺激通胀 维持高利率可能加剧就业放缓[4] - 鲍威尔承认政策制定面临挑战 称"当前没有无风险的路径"[4] 机构独立性维护 - 奥巴马政府经济顾问Furman认为特朗普任命官员未加入异议投票"预兆美联储独立性良好"[2] - 前美联储经济学家Sahm指出政策制定者出于维护机构完整的考虑采取一致行动[4] - 鲍威尔在新闻发布会回避评论人事争议 强调"坚决维护独立性"[4]

Chair problem more than once talked about how unusual the situation is because there are really conflicting risks here, both in inflation risk and unemployment risk at the same time. How unusual is that if you go back through history. Is that a really strange situation to face.Well, it's completely unprecedented for a member of the administration on leave to be a governor of the Fed. That's completely unprecedented. It's completely unprecedented for the president on a basis that many people regard as pretex ...

[Music] Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. We are 30 minutes into the US trading day.Let's get to the three market catalyst we're watching this hour. First up, full coverage on the Fed as the central bank kicks off its rate cutting cycle. Plus, Nvidia and Intel striking a deal.We'll break down what it means for both chip companies. And we get a read on the state of the consumer as Olive Garden parent reports earnings. We'll break down those numbers.Plus, let's get a check of the markets right now. ...

[Music] The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time in nine months and signals two more cuts could come this year. Jerome Powell defending the decision in the face of a weakening labor market and pressure from the White House. >> I think we were right to wait and see how tariffs and inflation and and the labor market evolved. I think we're now reacting to uh you know to the the much lower level of job creation and other evidence of softening in the labor market and saying well those risks are ...

主要股指表现 - 标普500指数上涨+0.67% 纳斯达克100指数上涨+1.19% 道琼斯工业指数上涨+0.46% [1] - 九月E-mini标普期货上涨+0.63% 九月E-mini纳斯达克期货上涨+1.19% [1] - 三大股指均创历史新高 主要因美联储进一步宽松政策预期推动 [2] 半导体行业表现 - 英特尔股价暴涨+25% 因英伟达同意投资50亿美元并宣布共同开发PC和数据中心芯片 [2][11] - KLA Corp上涨超+7% ASML Holding NV和应用材料上涨超+6% [11] - 美光科技上涨超+5% Marvell Technology、ON Semiconductor和Lam Research上涨超+4% [11] - GlobalFoundries上涨超+3% 英伟达上涨超+2% [11] 美联储政策与利率预期 - 美联储9月18日降息25个基点 并暗示年底前还将降息50个基点 [3][8] - 市场定价10月28-29日FOMC会议降息25个基点的概率为86% [5] - 债券收益率上升 10年期国债收益率升至4.14%的2周高点 [4][6] 经济数据表现 - 每周初请失业金人数下降-33,000至231,000人 低于预期的240,000人 [4] - 9月费城联储商业展望调查上升+23.5至23.2 创8个月新高 远高于预期的1.7 [4] - 8月领先指标下降-0.5% 逊于预期的-0.2% 为四个月来最大降幅 [5] 其他个股表现 - CrowdStrike上涨超+10% 因公司在投资者简报中讨论AI战略并给出强劲的2027财年初步展望 [12] - 89bio暴涨超+86% 因罗氏宣布以35亿美元或每股14.50美元收购该公司 [12] - IonQ上涨超+4% 因与美国能源部签署谅解备忘录推进太空量子技术发展 [12] - AeroVironment上涨超+4% 因美国银行全球研究首次覆盖给予买入评级和目标价300美元 [13] 国际市场与债券 - 欧洲斯托克50指数上涨+1.66% 创3.5周新高 [5] - 中国上证综指下跌-1.15% 从10年高点回落 [5] - 日经225指数上涨+1.15% 创历史新高 [5] - 10年期德国国债收益率上升至2.718% 英国国债收益率上升至4.671% [9]