Treasury yields edged higher Thursday as US economic data began facing delays on the second day of the federal government shutdown, leaving investors without labor market readings for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The rate on two-year notes, which are sensitive to changes in monetary policy, rose three basis points to 3.56%, while the 10 year’s was little changed at 4.10%. Yields had moved sharply lower Wednesday after a report on private-sector payrolls showed a surprise decline. Most Rea ...

Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...

The dollar dropped to its lowest point in a week on Wednesday, as the US entered its first government shutdown in nearly seven years and a report showed private-sector payroll growth unexpectedly turned negative last month. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% and was on track for a fourth day of declines, while the yen led Group-of-10 gained versus the greenback and rallied to a two-week high. Treasuries rose across the curve and US stock futures retreated. Most Read from Bloomberg Shutdowns have ...

Treasuries were poised to close out a third straight quarter of gains Tuesday as a pending US government shutdown threatens to slow economic growth, boosting the case to buy bonds. Bonds were broadly steady on Tuesday, capping off a quarter in which the market has posted a 1.5% return, according to a Bloomberg index. Treasuries have returned more than 5% through the first three quarters of 2025, setting them up for the best year since 2020. Most Read from Bloomberg Officials face a midnight deadline to ...

(Bloomberg) — The big question for bond investors in the days ahead is whether the monthly US jobs report will shake their already-wavering conviction in another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as soon as October. Most Read from Bloomberg Traders pared bets on additional Fed easing last week as officials voiced diverging views on monetary policy while some economic data was stronger than expected. There’s one major complication for financial markets, however: A potential federal-government shutdown s ...

投资评级与核心观点 - 报告对股票持等权重评级 对核心固定收益资产持超配评级 对其他固定收益资产持低配评级[4] - 核心观点认为宏观与市场表现脱节 风险资产受益于"不那么糟糕"的消息 国债因预期美联储降息而上涨 但估值过于乐观[3] - 建议在增长和关税风险中聚焦优质资产 偏好优质周期股和投资级信用债而非高收益债[4] 全球主要股市展望 - 美股偏好优质股、周期股和运营效率高的股票 标普500指数目标6500点 2025年EPS增长7%至259 2026年增长9%至283[6][7] - 欧股超配防御、银行、软件、电信和多元化金融板块 MSCI欧洲指数目标2250点 2025年EPS下降1%至138 2026年增长2.2%至141[6][7] - 日股偏好国内再通胀和公司改革受益股 及国防和经济安全相关支出企业 Topix指数目标2900点 2025年EPS增长1%至185 2026年增长8%至200[6][7] - 新兴市场超配金融和盈利能力领先企业 偏好国内业务而非出口和半导体硬件 MSCI EM指数目标1200点 2025年EPS增长6%至84 2026年增长10%至92[6][7] 宏观经济预测 - 全球GDP增长2025年2.6% 2026年3.1% 通胀2025年1.9% 2026年2.0%[10] - 美国GDP增长2025年1.1% 2026年1.3% 通胀2025年2.9% 2026年2.6%[10] - 欧元区GDP增长2025年1.0% 2026年1.1% 通胀2025年1.9% 2026年1.8%[10] - 日本GDP增长2025年0.4% 2026年0.7% 通胀2025年2.1% 2026年1.7%[10] - 新兴市场GDP增长2025年3.9% 2026年4.4% 通胀2025年1.5% 2026年1.9%[10] 央行政策预期 - 预计美联储本周降息25个基点 随后在1月前连续四次25基点降息 目标区间至3.375% 2026年4月和7月进一步降息至终端利率2.875%[2][20] - 预计欧洲央行12月和3月会议各降息25基点 终端利率1.5%[2][20] - 预计英国央行本周按兵不动 11月可能降息[20] - 预计日本央行不急于下次加息 维持政策不变[20] 固定收益与外汇展望 - 预计10年期美债收益率2025年底达4.00% 德债收益率至2.40% 英债收益率至4.35%[14][15] - 美元指数承压 预计跌至91 因美国利率和增长与 peers 趋同及风险溢价上升[14] - 欧元兑美元目标1.20 美元兑日元目标140 英镑兑美元目标1.40[15] 大宗商品展望 - 原油市场预计将出现大幅过剩 布伦特油价可能下跌但不低于60美元/桶[16] - 欧洲天然气价格近期区间波动 TTF短期预测35欧元/MWh[17] - 美元走弱对大宗商品有利 黄金有10%上行空间 铁 ore 上行空间有限[18] 信用市场展望 - 投资级信用债预计强劲总回报 杠杆融资投资者建议BB和CCC级债券的 barbell 策略[23] - 美国投资级信用债利差基案例90基点 高收益债335基点 杠杆贷款425基点[24]

At BlackRock Inc., PGIM and other Wall Street firms, bond-fund managers are sticking to trades that will likely pay off even if the Federal Reserve’s path is again knocked off course by surprising turns in the economy. Most Read from Bloomberg The run-up to the Fed’s first interest rate cut in nine months has already supplied solid returns, driving the Treasury market to its biggest annual gains since the pandemic forced the central bank to drive its lending rate to the cusp of zero. But when Jerome P ...

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 17, 2025: Dow Gains After Fed Decision Last Updated: 4 hours ago Treasury Market Is Fully Prepared for a Cut By Karishma Vanjani The Wall Street Journal The move in Treasuries suggest the market is ready for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates again. The 2-year yield, which is most sensitive to changes in rates, has fallen 0.246 percentage points since the Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell, on the morni ...

美联储利率决议 - 美联储将于9月16日宣布降息 市场关注官员投票分歧 部分官员可能支持50基点降息[1] - 联邦基金期货定价显示 市场预期2024年将进行两次降息概率100% 第三次降息概率62%[4] - 若鲍威尔暗示不会完全满足市场预期的100基点降息幅度 可能引发资产价格逆转[4] 贵金属市场表现 - 黄金期货突破3700美元 创历史新高 白银期货触及42.98美元[1][13] - 矿业股出现强劲上涨 贵金属整体表现强势[1][13] - 美元指数接近3.5年低点 较近期高点下跌0.25 助推以美元计价贵金属走强[2] 利率变化影响分析 - 约7万亿美元货币市场基金收益将减少 同时另有7万亿美元固定收益产品面临同样压力[5] - 高收入群体利息收入下降可能影响消费支出 该群体一直是消费主要驱动力[5] - 采用SOFR加权利率的借款人将获得缓解 长期国债走势将影响购房者融资成本[5] 次级汽车贷款风险 - 次级汽车贷款机构Tricolor申请第7章破产 专门为无信用记录借款人提供贷款[6] - Fifth Third Bancorp作为其仓库贷款人 声称因欺诈遭受"一次性"损失[6] - 公司被指控将抵押品重复质押给贷款人 可能反映次级汽车贷款领域更广泛压力[6] 欧洲经济数据 - 德国9月ZEW投资者信心指数升至37.3 超出预期12点 但现状指数恶化至-76.4[8] - 汽车 化工制药和金属行业预期改善 但三大行业指标仍处于负值区间[8] - 英国8月薪资增长排除奖金后同比增4.8% 持续高于通胀水平[9] 央行政策预期 - 英国央行预计维持基准利率4%不变 英镑兑美元升至7月初以来最高水平[10] - 德国面临美国关税政策不确定性及国内改革风险 经济前景存在显著风险[8]

美国国债市场表现 - 国债价格连续第四周上涨 10年期收益率自4月以来首次跌破4% 5年期收益率接近年内最低水平[1][2] - 彭博国债指数截至周四单周上涨0.45%[2] - 本周三次国债拍卖的重新定价及下周公司债供应反弹预期给收益率带来上行压力[2] 美联储利率政策预期 - 市场完全定价下周美联储将降息25个基点[3] - 摩根斯坦利经济学家预计将通过1月进行连续四次降息 基于通胀放缓及劳动力市场疲软[3] - 货币市场现定价年底前再降息两次的概率达80%[3] 机构观点与投资策略 - Amundi首席投资官预计年内将有三次降息 主因就业市场疲软[4] - Amundi布局短期国债引领收益率曲线陡峭化策略[4] - 安联与Pimco利用近期涨势削减部分曲线风险敞口[4] 经济数据表现 - 失业救济申请数据表现超过8月通胀数据[5] - 8月通胀率2.9%符合经济学家预期[5] - 美联储首选通胀指标预计月底公布时将维持2.9%同比增速[5]