Investor Michael Burry has doubled down on his claims regarding GPU depreciation at leading hyperscalers and AI companies, citing recent remarks by Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) CEO Satya Nadella, who highlighted the complex economics of large-scale data center investments. Burry Regrets Not Being More Vocal In 2008On Monday, in a post on X, Burry, who rose to prominence for shorting the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, said that he regrets not warning others more effectively about the ris ...

Welcome to the Big Money Show. I'm Degan McDow along with my co-host Taylor Riggs, Brian Breberg, Jackie D'Angelus, and with us for this hour, Mr. . Sunshine, Rosecliffe, founder and managing partner Mike Murphy.And I actually mean that. I don't mean that in an Eddie Haskell sort of way. Investors are hoping for a Santa Claus rally to cap off what has been a big year, but keeping their eyes set firmly on 2026.Analysts from America's largest investment banks, banks galore, seeing at least an 11% gain on the ...

文章核心观点 - 科技板块近期因对AI泡沫的担忧而受挫 但Jefferies分析师认为部分基本面强劲的个股仍具上涨潜力 [2][4][10] - Jefferies为投资者筛选出在2025年表现突出且预计在2026年仍有上行空间的互联网股票 [3][10] Jefferies看好的个股及理由 - **AppLovin (APP)**：2025年股价已翻倍以上 上周创下近725美元新高 预计2026年上半年将开放其基于引荐的广告平台给更多客户 从而大幅扩展业务 Jefferies给出860美元的华尔街最高目标价 暗示较上周五收盘有近30%上涨空间 [5][6] - **Reddit (RDDT)**：2025年股价上涨超三分之一 Jefferies目标价325美元 暗示约45%的上涨潜力 该目标超过Visible Alpha调查的分析师共识预期 [7] - **Roku (ROKU)**：2025年股价上涨超三分之一 Jefferies目标价135美元 暗示约33%的上涨潜力 该目标超过Visible Alpha调查的分析师共识预期 [7] - **Spotify (SPOT)**：2025年股价上涨超三分之一 Jefferies目标价800美元 暗示约26%的上涨潜力 该目标超过Visible Alpha调查的分析师共识预期 [7] - **Uber (UBER)**：年初至今上涨约40% Jefferies目标价120美元 暗示还有约40%上涨空间 增长动力来自机器人出租车合作、新配送客户以及对此前未充分覆盖人群的渗透 [8] - **Zillow (Z)**：截至上周五 股价较9月90美元以上的高点下跌约17% 年初至今涨幅不足1% Jefferies看好其复苏 目标价100美元 因该房地产平台正为代理商推出新工具和激励措施 [9] 市场背景与个股表现 - 科技股上周遭受打击 云计算巨头Oracle和芯片制造商Broadcom因季度业绩未达预期而领跌 [2] - 对AI泡沫的担忧在近几个月困扰市场 拖累科技板块 许多股票已从近期高点回落 [4] - Jefferies所提股票中 除一只外 其余在2025年均已大幅上涨 表现超越标普500指数及行业同行 [3]

The semiconductor company has an eye-popping valuation.Shares of Broadcom (AVGO 5.36%) have been soaring this year as the semiconductor company scored major AI chip wins, but investor sentiment shifted hard last week. Broadcom stock dropped by more than 11% on Friday in reaction to the company's report for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.Broadcom's results and guidance were stellar. Revenue surged 28% year over year, adjusted EPS increased 37%, and the company forecasted strong sequential growth in the fi ...

Today, our next guest says the AI boom of course is real and rather than calling it a bubble, it's more important to know when it's going to end. Joining us here at Post9 is Matt Whitiler, head of latestage growth at Wellington Management. His firm manages more than $1 trillion of assets.And thanks for coming in. It's good to talk to you. >> Thanks for having me.>> Um, what when you think about debt uh fueling this cycle as opposed to maybe a prior cycle, is it does it make it much different. >> I don't kno ...

While Nvidia (NVDA) stock is still outperforming the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) this year, it has lost over 17% from its recent highs. NVDA has been the flagbearer of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade and delivered stellar returns in 2023 and 2024, which helped it become the first-ever company to command a $5 trillion market cap. However, we have seen a realignment of sorts among AI stocks over the last three months. For instance, Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), which were perceived to be AI lag ...

市场估值与泡沫特征 - 当前市场估值处于历史高位 美国科技板块经通胀调整后的价格在过去10至15年间上涨了10倍 且当前估值在大多数指标上处于95百分位左右 仅1999-2000年时期估值高于当前水平 [2] - 衡量泡沫的四个“过度”指标包括 估值过高 持股过度 投资过度 以及杠杆过高 [2] 市场参与与资产配置 - 美国居民将52%的金融财富配置于股市 这一比例高于2000年水平 美国可能是当前全球唯一一个居民储蓄中投资股市的比例超过投资房地产的国家 [2][3] - 许多年轻人因无力购房而转向股市交易 试图通过股市获利 [3] 行业投资趋势 - 科技投资占GDP的比例目前达到6% 高于2000年的水平 [4] - 尽管AI相关债务有所增加 但家庭和私营部门整体的杠杆水平并不高 至少与之前的周期相比如此 此次杠杆主要积累在政府部门 [4][5] 龙头公司表现与市场动态 - 部分大型科技公司股价今年表现逊于大盘 Meta股价年内上涨9% Amazon上涨2% Microsoft上涨12% 三者均跑输标普500指数 [6][7] - 这些公司因产生大量自由现金流而被高估值 但其自由现金流增长正在急剧下降 公司正为此付出代价 [8] 全球市场对比与AI投资回报 - 今年全球其他股市的表现远优于美国股市 差距可能是2009年以来最大 尽管美国在AI领域投入巨大 [8] - 市场正在悄然质疑巨额AI投资是否能获得回报 并意识到美国经济已变得非常依赖AI 这相当于对AI进行了一次巨大的押注 [9] 泡沫的潜在催化剂 - 回顾过去200至300年的历史 终结每一个泡沫的唯一催化剂是利率上升 无论是短期还是长期利率 金融条件收紧的任何迹象都通常会刺破泡沫 [9][10]

市场环境与投资策略转变 - 2025年12月12日，美国主要股指因科技股遭大幅抛售而下跌，投资者对明显的AI泡沫叙事感到担忧[1] - 在紧张的市场环境下，股票投资者可能更倾向于股息增长型股票，而非高价格增长型股票，因其能提供抵御经济不确定性的防御性对冲[2] - 与单纯支付股息或高收益的股票相比，具有强劲股息增长历史的股票组合具有更大的资本增值空间[2] 股息增长策略的优势 - 股息增长型股票通常属于成熟公司，不易受市场大幅波动影响，能对冲经济、政治不确定性及市场波动[4] - 此类股票具有持续增加派息的特点，提供了下行保护[4] - 它们拥有更优越的基本面，包括可持续的商业模式、长期盈利记录、现金流增长、良好流动性、强劲资产负债表及一定的价值特征[5] - 尽管股息率不一定最高，但它们在更长的时期内表现优于整体股市或其他派息股票[6] 股票筛选标准 - 5年历史股息增长率大于零：筛选出具有稳健股息增长历史的股票[6] - 5年历史销售额增长率大于零：代表具有强劲收入增长记录的股票[7] - 5年历史每股收益增长率大于零：代表具有稳健盈利增长历史的股票[7] - 未来3-5年每股收益增长率大于零：代表公司预期盈利增长率，改善的盈利有助于维持股息支付[7] - 价格/现金流比率低于行业中位数：表明股票在其行业内被低估[8] - 52周价格涨幅高于标普500指数：确保股票在过去一年的升值幅度超过标普500[8] - Zacks排名为前两位：拥有Zacks排名第1或第2的股票通常在各类市场环境中表现优于同行[10] - 增长得分为B或更好：增长得分为A或B且结合Zacks排名第1或第2的股票提供最佳上行潜力[10] - 上述标准将股票筛选范围从超过7700只缩小至仅9只[10] 推荐股票详情 - **TE Connectivity**：一家全球性技术公司，为汽车、航空航天、国防、能源和医疗等广泛行业设计和制造连接及传感器解决方案，是该领域的市场领导者[10] - 市场预计其2026财年收入将同比增长10.2%[10] - 长期盈利增长率为12.3%，年度股息收益率为1.23%[10] - Zacks排名为第2，增长得分为B[11] - **Enersys**：从事各种工业电池的制造、营销和分销[11] - 市场预计其2026财年收入将同比增长4%[11] - 长期盈利增长率为15%，年度股息收益率为0.71%[11] - Zacks排名为第2，增长得分为B[12] - **Donaldson**：在全球范围内制造和销售过滤系统及替换部件[12] - 市场预计其2026财年收入将同比增长3.4%[12] - 长期盈利增长率为10%，年度股息收益率为1.30%[12] - Zacks排名为第2，增长得分为B[12] - **Lam Research**：为半导体行业提供晶圆制造设备和服务[13] - 市场预计其2026财年收入将同比增长14.1%[13] - 长期盈利增长率为20.3%，年度股息收益率为0.65%[13] - Zacks排名为第2，增长得分为A[13] - **Leidos Holdings**：核心能力包括提供网络安全、数据分析、企业IT现代化、运营与物流、传感器、收集与现象学、软件开发及系统工程等领域的解决方案[14] - 市场预计其2025财年收入将同比增长3.4%[14] - 长期盈利增长率为11.6%，年度股息收益率为0.84%[14] - Zacks排名为第2，增长得分为B[15]

NVIDIA (NVDA) has faced challenges in the past. Its stock has dropped over 30% within less than 2 months on as many as 8 separate occasions in recent years, resulting in billions being erased from market value and a significant loss of gains in a single correction. If past trends hold, NVDA stock is not shielded from abrupt, sharp downturns.Nvidia’s remarkable rise in 2025, driven by unquenchable AI demand, and strong data center performance, has boosted its valuation to extraordinary levels. However, this ...

The question of whether the rally in AI stocks has turned into a bubble has been top of mind for investors lately. Wall Street investment banks have offered very different explanations: some warn that enthusiasm has gone too far, while others argue the move remains grounded in fundamentals.That debate is exactly what Alpine Macro, an Oxford Economics–owned economic research firm, addressed in its latest 2026 outlook.Rather than claiming a bubble is already in place, Alpine Macro asked a more forward-looking ...