涉及的行业与公司 * 行业：中国工业行业，具体聚焦于贸易物流、航运、港口、造船、国际货运航班及陆路运输领域[2] * 公司：马士基（Maersk）[5]、海洋网联船务（ONE）[5]、Premier Alliance[5] 核心观点与论据 * **港口吞吐量与货运航班保持强劲增长**：中国主要港口集装箱吞吐量上周同比增长7%（与第50周持平）[3]，国际货运航班数量同比增长9%（第50周为+11%）[3][38] * **货运费率季节性上涨，亚洲区内租船市场强劲**：上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）上周环比上涨3%，主要由亚洲至美国航线运价驱动（美西/美东航线分别环比上涨12%/7%）[4][12]，亚洲支线船租船指数环比上涨4%，主要受1400-1700 TEU和2500 TEU集装箱船需求推动[4]，亚洲支线船可用性指数继续环比下降3%[4][34] * **苏伊士运河航线恢复情况更新**：马士基自2024年撤离后于上周五完成首次红海过境，但强调这不意味着立即全面恢复苏伊士运河走廊航线，公司正采取逐步方式评估恢复更广泛运营的可能性[5]，ONE和Premier Alliance的2026年服务更新显示，东西向航线将继续绕行好望角[5] * **其他关键贸易流数据**： * 洛杉矶港预计第53周进口量同比增长22%，而第52周为同比下降37%[3][9] * 11月，中欧班列/中亚班列去程运量同比变化为-1%/+13%[3][26] * 第50周，中国至美国/亚洲至美国航线一周内到港船舶载重吨位同比分别下降27%/24%[23] * 上周中国高速公路卡车流量同比下降1%[36] 其他重要内容 * **数据来源与方法**：报告大量依赖瑞银证据实验室（UBS Evidence Lab）的高频数据集，包括全球海事目的地监控、船队监控和贸易监控，这些数据基于对超过35,200艘商业船舶的AIS（自动识别系统）数据监控与分析[41][42][43][44] * **风险提示**：宏观经济层面的投资缩减是中国工业行业的关键风险，若中国经济持续疲软，工业品或进出口需求可能萎缩，导致增长放缓[45]

The U.S. stock market observes a quiet Christmas Day on Thursday, December 25, 2025, with all major exchanges, including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq, closed for the holiday. This pause follows a robust, holiday-shortened trading session on Wednesday, December 24, where major indexes continued their upward trajectory, reaching new record highs. Investors are now looking ahead to the reopening of markets on Friday, December 26, and the economic landscape that awaits in the final days of 2025 ...

The U.S. stock market is closed today, Thursday, December 25, 2025, in observance of the Christmas Day holiday, providing a pause after a robust, record-setting session on Christmas Eve. Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will remain fully shut, with normal trading operations set to resume on Friday, December 26, 2025. This holiday closure follows a shortened trading day on Wednesday, December 24, when major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching ne ...

U.S. financial markets are observing a full closure today, Thursday, December 25, 2025, in celebration of the Christmas holiday. Trading on both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq is suspended for the entire day, with normal operations set to resume on Friday, December 26, 2025. This pause follows a shortened, yet record-setting, trading session on Christmas Eve, Wednesday, December 24, where major indexes continued their upward trajectory, fueling hopes of a "Santa Claus rally" to close out the ...

As families across the nation gather on Thursday, Dec. 25, to celebrate Christmas, Americans should be prepared for a mix of closures and adjusted timings.What's Closed On Christmas?Most federal and financial institutions will pause operations on Thursday. Banks, post offices, and the stock market (NYSE and Nasdaq) are all closed. Major shipping carriers like United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:UPS) and FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) will also suspend standard pickup and delivery services.See Also: Trump Hails ‘Record ...

行业与公司 * 行业：中国经济、房地产、制造业、基础设施、零售、出口、航运、汽车、钢铁、财政政策[2][3][4] * 公司：无特定上市公司，报告由瑞银（UBS）经济学家团队发布[5] 核心观点与论据 **宏观经济与高频数据表现疲软** * 12月高频数据显示经济增长疲软：30城房地产销售在12月前20天同比深跌30%（11月为-33%），各线城市均疲弱[2] * 港口货物吞吐量增长从11月的3%放缓至12月前14天的2%，集装箱吞吐量增长从11%放缓至7%[2] * 中国集装箱运价指数（CCFI）过去一周（12月13-19日）环比微升1%，但同比仍深跌25%，上海集装箱运价指数（SCFI）环比反弹11%，但同比仍大幅下降35%[2] * 12月前10天粗钢产量同比降幅从11月的-14%收窄至-11%[2] * 12月前14天汽车零售和批发销售同比分别大幅下降至-24%和-31%（11月分别为-7%和2%），主要受去年以旧换新补贴政策造成的高基数影响[2] * 人民币兑美元自11月底以来升值0.5%，至12月19日的7.04，2025年年内累计升值3.5%[2] **财政收支低于预算，年末或加速支出** * 11月一般公共预算收入同比增速从10月的3%放缓至0%，其中税收收入增速从9%放缓至3%，非税收入同比降幅从-33%收窄至-11%[3] * 11月一般公共预算支出同比降幅从10月的-10%收窄至-4%[3] * 地方政府性基金收入（主要为土地出让收入）保持疲弱，同比-16%，其中土地出让收入同比-27%[3] * 11月政府性基金支出同比增速从-38%反弹至3%，主要得益于低基数及新增专项地方债发行增加（同比约+4070亿元人民币）[3] * 2025年1-11月，一般公共预算收入同比增长0.8%，略高于预算计划的0.1%，但一般公共预算支出仅增长1.4%，远低于预算计划的4.4%[3] * 同期，政府性基金预算收入同比下降5%（其中土地出让收入-11%），支出增长14%，均分别低于预算计划的增长1%和23%[3] * 若政府仍希望达成年度预算目标，意味着12月一般公共预算和政府性基金支出均需显著加速[3] **11月经济数据：地产投资深跌，零售放缓，出口反弹** * 房地产下行持续：11月房地产开发投资同比深跌30.3%，房地产销售同比继续下降17.3%，房价环比进一步下跌[4] * 制造业投资同比降幅收窄至-4.5%，基础设施投资同比继续大幅收缩12%，两者均部分受到可能在2026年有所缓解的干扰因素影响[4] * 社会消费品零售总额增速放缓幅度超预期，降至1.3%同比[4] * 出口增长意外反弹至5.9%同比[4] * 工业增加值增速仅微降0.1个百分点至4.8%同比，其中高技术产业和关键“新经济”产品持续跑赢其他行业[4] **未来展望与政策预期** * 预计12月消费增长将因高基数效应和缺乏重大政策刺激下的房地产持续低迷而保持疲弱[5] * 基础设施和制造业投资同比降幅可能收窄，部分得益于政策性银行的新融资工具和额外地方债发行的支持[6] * 出口增长可能放缓，受前期抢出口的回吐效应和高基数影响[6] * “新经济”部门应继续展现强劲增长[6] * 继续预计2025年第四季度GDP增速将放缓至约4.2%同比，2025年全年GDP平均增长4.9%，基本符合“5%左右”的增长目标[6] * 中央经济工作会议为2026年设定了适度支持且更平衡的政策立场[6] * 预计2026年中国GDP增长目标将设定在“4.5-5%”，保持总体财政赤字率稳定并进行小幅广义财政扩张，政策利率下调20个基点，更加注重创新、消费、反内卷、对外开放等[6] 其他重要内容 * 报告包含大量图表，展示了房地产销售、政府债券发行、汽车销售、钢铁产量、集装箱运价指数、港口吞吐量、财政收支、固定资产投资、零售销售、人民币汇率及中美利差等数据趋势[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33] * 报告末尾附有详细的法律声明、分析师认证、披露事项及全球分发规定[34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68]

At Cash Flow Club , we focus on businesses with strong cash generation, ideally with a wide moat and significant durability. When these companies are bought at the right time, that can be highly rewarding for us. If you are interested in joining our community, start right here !ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. ( ZIM ) has recently shown a strong performance thanks to expectations about the company getting acquired. While I recommended buying ZIM in the past, I'm somewhat less bullish now -- the dividen ...

U.S. stock markets are poised for a quiet, holiday-shortened trading session today, Wednesday, December 24, 2025, as investors prepare for the Christmas holiday. Major indexes closed higher on Tuesday, extending a four-day winning streak, with the S&P 500 reaching another all-time closing high. However, premarket activity suggests a muted start, with futures largely flat amidst anticipated thin trading volumes.Premarket Trading Activity and Futures MovementsAs Wall Street gears up for an early 1:00 p.m. ET ...

U.S. stock markets are set for a holiday-shortened trading session on Wednesday, December 24, 2025, as investors brace for an early close at 1:00 PM ET for equities and 2:00 PM ET for bond markets in observance of Christmas Eve. Despite a strong performance in the previous session, premarket trading activity indicates a cautious start, with major index futures showing slight declines.Premarket Snapshot: Futures Edge LowerAs the truncated trading day begins, U.S. stock futures are largely flat to slightly do ...

Meanwhile, the much-anticipated Santa Claus Rally period officially kicks off today. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of 1.3%, posting gains 78% of the time, according to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial.“The strongest pace of economic growth in two years is bolstering confidence that corporate earnings will continue to expand robustly in 2026,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. At the same time, U.S. money markets continue to price in at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2 ...