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从「金砖理论」到「The Messy Inbox」,a16z 合伙人如何看待 AI 时代的护城河?
机器之心· 2025-12-20 02:30
软件属性从“辅助工具”向“数字劳动力”的范式转移 - 本轮技术周期的核心是软件商业属性正经历从“辅助工具”向“执行主体”的范式转移 [4] - 过去软件是依附于人类员工的辅助工具,其价值必须通过人的操作才能释放,人是业务流程的绝对核心 [4] - 在人工智能时代,软件本身性质发生质变,进化为能够独立执行任务的数字劳动力,可以替代人类完成端到端的劳动环节 [3][7] - 例如,软件可以直接与客户进行多语言通话催收,或自动完成法律文书的起草,而不再像传统CRM或Excel那样依赖人工输入 [6] 商业价值对标与市场空间的重构 - 软件作为工具时,企业的采购决策基于有限的IT维护预算,这部分预算占比小且增长乏力 [7] - 当软件被定义为数字劳动力时,其商业对标对象转变为高昂的人力薪酬成本,直接与企业运营支出竞价 [8] - 这种逻辑激活了大量过去因流程刚性、碎片化且依赖人工判断而缺乏软件化价值的边缘领域 [9] - 例如法律索赔处理或牙科诊所前台等场景,在AI时代因人力替代价值而成为利润丰厚的核心市场 [10][11] - 数字劳动力能够以极低的边际成本接管这些劳动密集型的刚性流程任务 [11] 定价模式的根本性变革:寻找“Goldilocks Zone” - 传统的按席位订阅(SaaS)模式对数字劳动力已失效,因为其核心价值在于通过自动化减少对人类员工的需求 [12][13] - 若沿用旧模式,产品越成功,客户所需席位越少,软件公司收入反而会萎缩 [14] - 创业者需采用“Goldilocks Zone”定价策略,在软件成本与人力成本之间寻找最优套利空间 [15] - 定价平衡点必须显著低于雇佣真人的综合成本,以巨大的降本优势驱动购买决策 [16] - 同时,定价又要远高于传统工具软件的订阅费用,以匹配其交付的实际劳动成果 [17] 竞争格局变化与创业公司的突围策略 - AI技术已成为巨头共识,过往依靠在位者认知偏差获取的时间窗口红利期已经过去 [18] - 初创企业需运用“金砖理论”,寻找巨头因机会成本而战略性放弃的“结构性缝隙”以突围 [1][18] - 真正的护城河需建立在对特定行业上下文的深度掌控之上,而非短期的模型差异化红利 [1] - 创业者应将核心壁垒从同质化的底层模型能力,转移至对特定行业“上下文”的深度理解与工作流嵌入 [18]
OpenAI should strike while iron's hot, raise $200 billion at $1 trillion valuation: Jim Cramer
Youtube· 2025-12-20 00:57
Hey, I'm Kramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cra America.Other people make friends. I'm just trying to make you a little money. My job is not just to entertain, but to teach you how everything works here.So, call me at 1800743 CNBC. Tweet me, Jim Kramer. After an agonizing period where Wall Street decided it was done with one of the greatest growth stories in history, artificial intelligence and everything attached to it.Today we got a reprieve, maybe even a second win that showered money on the cowork ...
Data center stocks can get on track if OpenAI raises money, Jim Cramer says
CNBC· 2025-12-19 23:53
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday explained how he thinks the data center sector can regain its footing on the market, saying OpenAI needs to raise cash to pay Oracle, one of its major partners."No matter what, OpenAI needs to raise a lot of money, and it needs to raise it now," he said. "Or else the whole data center edifice will go down and stay down."While artificial intelligence stocks managed to rally on Friday — with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.31% — the group has been under pressure in recent ...
The 5 stocks dragging down the Dow in 2025
Youtube· 2025-12-19 23:37
We're taking a look at the five worst performing Dow members in 2025. They include United Health, Salesforce, Nike, Proctor and Gamble, and Honeywell. Markets and data editor Jared Licky here now with a closer look at their performance in a series that we are calling down bad.>> I get it. Thank you, Julie. And yes, even in a good year, somebody's still getting coal in their stockings.And we've got eight Dow components in the red this year with a familiar list of reasons. We got healthc care bills, shopper m ...
Prediction: These 2 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Could Be Worth More Than Palantir by 2026
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-19 22:45
Palantir's stock is extremely expensive.Palantir (PLTR +4.14%) has been on a remarkable run since the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race began in 2023. Its stock is up over 2,700% since 2023, and has doubled in each year since then. However, there is a bit of a problem with Palantir's stock. It has become drastically overvalued, and I think it could be ripe for a pullback in 2026, opening the door to other companies to surge past it.Two AI companies that could be larger than Palantir by the end of 2026 ...
Dan Ives: 2026 will be key period to show next stage of AI trade from software and cyber
Youtube· 2025-12-19 21:59
2026 will be an inflection point in the AI revolution. That's just one of the predictions Wed Bush's Dan Ives is making as he looks ahead to the new year. Joins us now as you see. It's good to see you.>> Hey, great to be here. >> What does that mean. An inflection point.>> I think it's about the modernization of the AI revolution specifically on the software side. You I think obviously Palunteer we've seen that front and center, but you look at MongoDB, Snowflake, the use cases. I think really the infrastru ...
Stocks Rise as Tech and AI Names Rebound | Closing Bell
Youtube· 2025-12-19 21:27
And right now we are 2 minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romaine Bostick alongside Katie Greifeld here to take you through to the closing bell with a global simulcast. We're joined now by Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec in the radio room.Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms as we pass the most crucial moments going on in the world of finance. But we do want to start off the simulcast here with a note here about the world of politics. We're now learning based on a headline ...
How Much You’d Have If You Bet $10,000 on Palantir Stock in January and 1 Key PLTR Catalyst to Watch in 2026
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-19 21:25
Palantir (PLTR) has been one of the most explosive stocks of the year. From a low of $63.40, Palantir exploded to a high of about $207.52 for a return of about 229% a share. That means for every $10,000 risked on PLTR since January, you had the opportunity to walk away with about $32,900 in less than a year. More News from Barchart Now back to $191, investors are being handed another opportunity for further upside. Partnering with Nvidia (NVDA) and CenterPoint Energy (CNP), the three launched Chain Re ...
U.S. Stocks Extend Rebound As Tech Leaders Continue To Recover
RTTNews· 2025-12-19 21:13
Stocks showed a strong move to the upside during trading on Friday, extending the significant rebound seen over the course of Thursday's session. With the upward move, the major averages further offset the weakness seen earlier in the week.The tech-heavy Nasdaq reached new highs for the session going into the end of the day, closing up 301.26 points or 1.3 percent at 23,307.62. The S&P 500 also jumped 59.74 points or 0.9 percent to 6,834.50, while the narrower Dow rose 183.04 points or 0.4 percent to 48,13 ...
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as Oracle, Nvidia lead AI trade resurgence
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-19 21:04
US stocks rose on Friday after snapping a recent losing streak, as signs of cooling inflation and waning AI worries buoyed Wall Street optimism toward the tail end of a topsy-turvy week. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) put on 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained over 1.3%, building on Thursday's roaring rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed 0.3%. With the late-week rebound, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq booked weekly wins, rising 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, in the last full week of trading in 202 ...