长期国债收益率变动 - 10年期国债收益率本周最高跳升至4.145%，此前曾短暂跌破4% [1] - 30年期国债收益率交易于约4.76%，高于本周早些时候的低点4.604% [1] - 债券价格下跌导致收益率上升，因价格与收益率呈反向关系 [3] 美联储政策与市场反应 - 美联储将基准贷款利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25% [2] - 债券交易员将此视为“利好出尽”的卖出机会，推动长期债券收益率走高 [2] - 长期债券交易员不希望美联储降息，因通胀高于2%目标且经济稳健，降息可能意味着央行忽视通胀风险 [3][4] 收益率上升的影响 - 长期收益率上升会影响住房和汽车等大额购买的抵押贷款以及信用卡成本 [6] - 本周美联储降息后，抵押贷款利率随之上升，此前在央行行动前曾触及三年低点 [6] - 建筑商Lennar第三季度营收未达华尔街预期，并对本季度交付量给出疲弱指引，其共同首席执行官指出面临持续的市场压力和整个第三季度大部分时间的高利率 [8] 债券市场的决策逻辑 - 债券投资者基于对更大局面的判断做决策，关注未来降息路径和 perceived 中性利率 [9] - 债券市场需要确信央行将大幅降息后才会真正做出反应 [10] - 长期美国收益率也受国际同类债券收益率走高的影响 [10] 收益率与经济的信号关系 - 收益率下降通常预示经济衰退即将来临 [11] - 本周收益率跳升部分归因于失业救济申领人数下降，暗示近期经济衰退风险降低 [11] - 债券市场实际上只拥抱坏消息，甚至是“可怕的消息” [12]

Nomi Prins FOR DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PLAY OR DOWNLOAD AUDIOS: CLICK HERENomi Prins: Keynote speaker who addressed the Federal Reserve, IMF and the World Bank – Nomi is a renowned journalist, author and speaker. Her latest book, “PERMANENT DISTORTION: How Financial Markets Abandoned the Real Economy Forever”– Nomi Prins examines the consequences of the unstable economy that caused what she calls the state of Permanent Distortion; a wedge between a funhouse financial realm that thrives even in times of social ...

美联储利率决议 - 美联储在9月17日FOMC会议后宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%区间 [1] 分析师背景 - 分析师Michael Gray拥有资本市场及固定收益资产管理经验 曾担任富达投资应税固定收益部门主管并创立Gray Capital Management LLC [1] - 分析师持有沃顿商学院金融MBA及联合学院经济学学士学位 [1]

美联储利率决策 - 美联储实施今年首次降息25个基点 但未释放更鸽派展望 引发债券收益率全线上涨[1] - 委员会内部存在分歧 9人认为今年不应再降息 1人反对本次降息 共识度较低[6][7] - 点阵图显示多数官员预期年内还有两次降息 但部分官员认为仅一次或更少 2025年利率预期中值进一步下移[4] 债券市场反应 - 两年期国债收益率因市场重新定价降息幅度而显著上升 信用利差收窄至1998年以来最低水平[1][3] - 10年期国债收益率预计在4.2%-4.4%区间波动 收益率曲线呈现陡化趋势[2][16] - 20年期国债和10年期TIPS拍卖收益率分别创去年10月以来新低及低于预期水平[25] 通胀与就业前景 - 美联储对2%通胀目标持灵活态度 历史平均通胀率为3.3% 当前3%通胀中约30基点由关税因素驱动[14][17] - 劳动力市场供需趋于平衡 八月非农就业数据预期上修 三个月平均就业增长稳定在2万人区间[10][12] - 财政刺激与金融条件宽松支撑经济 消费支出保持韧性 降低经济下行风险[12][16] 信用市场动态 - 投资级债券发行量超预期 高收益债券周发行量达120亿美元 其中DIRECTV单笔发行16亿美元[25][26] - 信贷利差收窄至72基点以下 企业杠杆率保持稳定 再融资主导发行需求[29][34] - 私募信贷竞争加剧 杠杆贷款市场因提前再融资缓解到期墙压力 三重C级贷款利差优势显著[36][38] 企业融资与并购环境 - 并购活动受关税不确定性影响后复苏 预计第四季度至明年交易量回升[30][31] - 企业更倾向股权融资而非债务 因长期借贷成本仍处高位 锁定利率动机不足[33][34] - 花旗与阿波罗合作开展北美直接贷款业务 协同效应初显但面临公开市场融资竞争[39][42]

The announcements from PayPal, Google and Mastercard are about building the infrastructure for agentic commerce when it arrives, Aaron McPherson, principal at AFM Consulting LLC, told American Banker, noting there is not a lot of consumer demand for agentic commerce at this point, but there are "numerous problems to be solved."Mastercard additionally released Agent Sign-Up, which lets the card network's Agent Toolkit users identify AI agents and access AI-enabled Mastercard products. Other products are Insi ...

央行公开市场操作 - 央行开展3543亿元7天期逆回购操作 净投放1243亿元 [3] - 资金利率小幅回落 DR001在1.46%附近 DR007在1.51%附近 [3] 银行间资金市场 - R001加权利率1.50% 下降8bp 成交量62718.08亿元 [4] - R007加权利率1.52% 下降5bp 成交量6720.35亿元 [4] - R014加权利率1.67% 下降2bp 成交量793.51亿元 [4] - R1M加权利率1.66% 持平 成交量409.96亿元 [4] 债券市场表现 - 10年期国债收益率从1.7825%最高上行至1.804% 收盘1.795% 上行1.25bp [5] - 10年期国开债收益率收盘1.938% 上行1.50bp [5] - 30年期国债收益率收盘2.092% 上行2.20bp [5] - 国债一级发行结果偏弱 加剧利率上行压力 [5] 利率债收益率变动 - 1年期国债收益率1.39% 上行0bp [7] - 5年期国债收益率1.605% 上行2.20bp [7] - 10年期国开债收益率1.938% 上行1.50bp [7] - 3年期口行债收益率1.71% 上行0.50bp [7] 信用债市场 - AAA+级1年期信用债收益率1.90% 上行1.58bp [7] - AAA级3年期信用债收益率1.915% 成交量64亿元 [7] - AA+级1年期信用债收益率1.84% 上行1.55bp [7] - AA级1年期信用债收益率2.45% 上行0.66bp [7] 市场情绪与驱动因素 - 债市对中美首脑通话存在避险情绪 推动利率上行 [5] - 央行调整14天逆回购招标方式 带动尾盘利率小幅回落 [5] - 本周市场呈现波动格局 周三多头赌美联储降息 周五空头赌中美通话 [5]

The yield on the 10-year benchmark ended at 6.4885%, after closing at 6.5139% on Thursday. The yield rose marginally on the week, after climbing 2 basis points last week. Yields move inversely to prices. The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 bps and indicated 50 bps of more cuts in 2025. However, Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will be in a "meeting-by-meeting situation" regarding the rate cut outlook, and framed the move as a risk-management cut. This indicates that the rate cut cycle may not ...

By Karin Strohecker and Libby George LONDON (Reuters) - Angola will decide by November whether to roll over its $1 billion total return swap deal with JPMorgan, or potentially raise the money on international capital markets, a senior debt official told Reuters. JPMorgan and Angola agreed in December a $1 billion, one-year derivative contract known as a total return swap, backed by $1.9 billion in government dollar bonds, which will expire at the end of this year. "We have some options," Dorivaldo Tei ...

Sep 19, 2025 7:05 AM Eastern Daylight Time Mark R. DeFazio Honored at Grand Opening of Boro Park JCC Community Center Share Metropolitan Commercial Bank's CEO Front and Center Celebrating Expansion and Community Impact From left: Thomas P. DiNapoli New York State Comptroller, Simcha Eichenstein New York State Assembly Member, District 48, Representative Dan Goldman U.S. House of Representatives, Kalman Yeger New York State Assembly, District 41, Avi Greenstein Chief Executive Officer Boro Park Jewish Commun ...

gk-6mt/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify FedEx (FDX) rallies after topping profit expectations, updating on business split; UPS also higher. (00:22) Activist investor Biglari targets Cracker Barrel (CBRL) CEO in eighth proxy fight. (01:40) Novo Nordisk (NVO) reduces its U.S. sales team for obesity and diabetes education: Reuters. (03:03) This is an abridged transcript. FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) is up 5% in premarket action after topping expec ...