How do we fix this. It looks like pharmaceutical stocks are going to be under a little bit of pressure this morning, but European equities broadly look like they're on the front foot. Absolutely.Futures are up across the board actually now. And that's perhaps surprising because we've had these big tariff announcements. If you look back to April, when we had announcements like this, it weighed on equities very heavily.But I think there are two factors happening here. One is that this has happened before. We' ...

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee Just as the word was slowly fading away from the memories of investors, it has been foisted upon them again. Asian share markets slumped on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump made his latest tariff salvo, and attention now turns to Europe. Trump on Thursday unveiled punishing tariffs on a broad range of imported goods, including 100% duties on branded drugs and 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks, set to take effect from October 1. H ...

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks climbed Friday and trimmed their losses for the week after a report showed that inflation is behaving roughly as economists expected, even if it’s still high. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% and broke its three-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 299 points, or 0.7%, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.4%. All three indexes pulled closer to the all-time highs they set at the start of the week. Stocks got some help from a report showing that inflation in the United St ...

Economic uncertainty often forces a shift in how we spend and save. During the Great Recession of the late 2000s — when unemployment hit 10% and home values dropped by 30% — many tightened their budgets and focused on financial survival. For You: Mark Cuban Says Trump's Executive Order To Lower Medication Costs Has a 'Real Shot' -- Here's Why Trending Now: 8 Frugal Habits Americans Are Ridiculed for — and Why You Shouldn’t Care Fast forward to 2025: interest rates are volatile, inflation still ebbs and fl ...

By Devayani Sathyan BENGALURU (Reuters) -The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its cash rate at 3.60% next week, all the economists in a Reuters poll said, as the labour market remains tight and policymakers wait to see firm signs that inflation is easing. While the consensus view for a year-end rate of 3.35% remained intact, a handful of respondents pushed back their November rate cut forecasts, pointing to higher monthly inflation readings. Australia's monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% in ...

**全球及主要国家/地区经济与政策展望关键要点** **全球宏观经济与关税影响** * 全球经济增长保持韧性 2025年上半年全球GDP增长率为2.6% 仅略低于2024年的2.8% 经济活动好于预期 但预计关税的负面影响将在下半年显现 导致全球增长放缓至2%以下 随后在2026年反弹至2.5% [1][9][24] * 关税导致美国进口前移 预期关税上升促使美国家庭和企业提前购买进口商品 使得2025年美国进口量平均水平高于2024年 其他国家的出口也因此被抬高 这是全球经济韧性的主要驱动因素 [2][17] * 关税成本转嫁仍在进行中 估计消费者迄今仅承担了关税成本的30-40% 其余部分由企业部门吸收 企业通过积极积累库存来延迟涨价 但此过程预计将持续 外国出口商吸收的关税份额可忽略不计 [3][21][34] * 关税收入大幅增加 美国月度关税征收额在8月达到300亿美元（年化3600亿美元） 远高于去年的750亿美元 [21] * 核心商品通胀加速 自今年初以来 CPI中的核心商品价格加速超过1.5个百分点 包括家用电器 家具和音频设备等多个进口商品类别出现大幅上涨 [21][30] **全球通胀与货币政策展望** * 全球通胀整体受控 全球整体通胀率近期维持在2%附近 鉴于全球经济短期放缓以及油价低于65美元/桶 上行风险有限 核心通胀率则停滞在2.5% 略高于疫情前水平 主要反映服务通胀下降缓慢 [4][36] * 美欧通胀走势分化 美国关税带来滞胀冲击 推高通胀（尤其是核心商品）并抑制增长 而对世界其他地区则是负面需求冲击 减少对美出口 从而对产出 工资和价格构成下行压力 [37] * 全球货币政策处于宽松轨道 过去一年见证了为应对疫情后通胀飙升而采取的政策限制的解除 预计这一宽松周期将持续 在一组主要央行中 预计所有央行在年底前要么降息 要么按兵不动 利率普遍在向中性水平回落 预计大多数国家不会进入明显的宽松区间 [5][51][61] * 美联储已于9月降息 并暗示今年还将进一步降息50个基点 尽管通胀高于目标且仍在上升 但劳动力市场疲软迹象增加以及货币政策立场仍具限制性的评估促使美联储采取行动 [54] * 欧洲央行在9月会议上坚定发出暂停信号 今年已降息100个基点 预计在暂停后 欧央行将于12月再次降息 并在明年初再次行动 将存款利率降至1.5% 这是一个比上月预测更为渐进的下降轨迹 [55] **主要国家/地区经济展望** * 美国 预计2025年增长1.7% 2026年增长2.0% 核心PCE通胀在2.9%附近 高于2%目标 劳动力市场疲软 月度私人 payroll 就业增长3个月平均值已显著放缓至2.9万 失业率升至4.3% 预计美联储将进一步降息四次 至2026年3月利率降至3.0-3.25% [63][68][70][71][72] * 欧元区 预计2025年增长1.3% 2026年增长0.8% 美国关税的影响预计在未来几个季度将更为显著 成为增长阻力 财政刺激计划（累计达GDP的5%）将在未来支持内需 通胀预计将放缓 2026年平均为1.5% 欧央行预计将进一步降息 [63][81][83][84][85] * 中国 预计2025年增长5.0% 2026年增长4.6% 8月经济活动指标普遍不及预期 零售销售增长放缓至3.4% 固定资产投资累计增长进一步降至0.5% 预计人民银行将在年底前降息10基点和降准50基点以提供支持 [63][113][115][116] * 日本 预计2025年增长1.1% 2026年增长0.8% 核心CPI通胀预计2025年为3.1% 预计日本央行将在2026年1月加息 而非市场定价的10月 [63][104][105][106][107] * 英国 预计2025年增长1.3% 2026年增长1.0% CPI通胀预计2025年为3.5% 劳动力市场出现松动迹象 但工资增长放缓缓慢 私人部门常规工资增长 stuck在4.7% 预计英国央行今年不会进一步降息 [63][94][96][97][99] * 加拿大 预计2025年增长1.0% 2026年增长0.8% 劳动力市场疲软 失业率在8月升至周期新高7.1% 核心通胀指标已回到加拿大央行1-3%的目标区间 预计加拿大央行将继续降息至终端利率1.75% [63][74][75][76][77][78] * 印度 预计FY26增长7.3% CPI通胀 benign 8月仅为2.07% 商品及服务税（GST）削减增加了货币政策的不确定性 10月会议降息25个基点是可能选项 [63][118][119][120] * 澳大利亚 预计2025年增长1.8% 国内服务和住房通胀再次加速 因此移除了11月的降息预测 维持现金利率在3.60%更长时间 预计最终在2026年2月降息25基点 [63][108][110] * 新西兰 预计2025年增长0.2% 经济上半年未增长 预计新西兰联储需要将OCR降至2.0% 可能在10月或11月降息50基点 [63][109][110] **其他重要内容** * 中美贸易变化 中国对美出口遭遇两位数下降 中国商品占美国进口份额在2025年第二季度骤降至仅8% 低于2018年初的20%以上 中国对东盟 欧元区等其他目的地的出口增长相应增加 [18][58] * 美国进口价格 总体进口价格今年横盘整理 汽车行业显现出轻微的进口价格压缩 但消费品 尤其是资本品几乎没有印记 [34] * 各国财政状况 多个国家有财政刺激计划（如德国 欧洲整体）或面临财政整顿压力（如英国） [82][88][98] * 汇率影响 欧元升值也增加了关税带来的阻力 [81]

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Sarah Dong +1(212)357-9741 | sarah.dong@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 25 September 2025 | 3:45PM EDT Economics Research G10 INFLATION ...

TS Lombard thinks there's risk of a stagflationary scenario on the horizon. The Fed could be cutting rates as the demand side of the economy accelerates, the firm said. Fed policy missteps in the 1960s cause inflation to spike and was followed by a period of stagflation. The worst-case inflation scenario is on one firm's radar. While most forecasters are growing confident about the economy's resilience, macro research firm TS Lombard says it's eyeing the risk that the US could see a burst of inf ...

Data showed initial Also, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday he was uneasy with cutting rates too quickly, with The comments and data follow the U.S. central bank's move last week to lower rates by 25 basis points - its first cut since December - after signs of weakness in the labor market. It also gave indications of more rate cuts ahead. Investor expectations of another 25 bps cut in the Fed's October meeting are now at 83.4%, down from about 92% on Wednesday, according to the CME F ...

关税政策调整 - 美国将于10月1日起对进口药品征收100%关税[1] - 重型卡车进口关税税率设定为25%[1] - 厨房橱柜进口产品适用50%关税[1] 政策实施背景 - 关税调整针对其他国家产品大规模涌入美国市场的情况[2] - 政策目标包括保护国家安全和制造业体系[2] - 具体实施依据未明确（紧急权力或232条款调查）[2] 经济环境影响 - 8月份"家庭食品"价格创2022年8月以来最大月度涨幅[3] - 核心消费者价格指数（剔除食品能源）同比上升3.1%[3] - 通胀压力与现有关税诉讼未影响关税政策推进[3]