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盛松成:降息仍有空间
和讯· 2025-09-19 09:28
中国货币政策工具运用特点 - 2016年以来中国法定存款准备金率调整23次且均为降准 大型存款类金融机构存准率从17.5%降至9.0% 累计下降8.5个百分点[3] - 同期政策利率仅调整14次 降准使用频率显著高于降息[3] - 当前金融机构加权平均存款准备金率约6.2% 每降准0.5个百分点可向社会提供约1万亿元资金[4] 商业银行息差与融资结构 - 商业银行净息差从2010年前后近3%-4%降至2024年二季度末1.42% 创历史新低[3] - 中国间接融资占比达89.7% 其中银行业为主力 美国直接融资为主银行业占比仅42%[3][4] - 商业银行持有68%国债和75%地方政府债 降准可增强其购债能力支持财政政策[5] 降息政策空间与约束 - 活期存款年利率从0.3%降至0.05% 定期存款利率从3.5%降至1字头水平[6] - 2024年7月居民存款减少1.11万亿元 同比多减7800亿元 与非银机构存款增加2.14万亿元形成资金转移[6] - 当前物价较低推高实际利率 叠加人民币兑美元缓步升值 为降息创造外部条件[7] 结构性货币政策工具创新 - 2024年5月7天OMO利率调降10个基点 结构性工具利率普遍下调25个基点[7] - 结构性工具重点支持经济薄弱环节与重点领域 包括小微企业 房地产风险化解 科技创新及绿色发展[7] - 截至2024年末结构性货币政策工具约占人民币银行总资产14.2%[7]
The Big Short' investor Steve Eisman says the Fed won't cut rates that much, and AI is still the biggest story in markets
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-19 00:31
Steve Eisman is best known for betting against the US housing market in 2008. These days, though, the 'The Big Short' investor isn't so bearish on the market. He predicts that rate cuts will be shallow and have a small impact on markets. Famous for spotting one of the darkest trends in market history, Steve Eisman is feeling a bit more upbeat these days. Eisman rose to fame after shorting the US housing market prior to the 2008 crash. He recently shared his takes on several market trends, includin ...
Dollar Finds Support from Higher Bond Yields
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-18 19:31
The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.50%.  The dollar moved higher Thursday on positive carryover from Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said higher goods prices are feeding through to inflation and that the FOMC expects inflation to continue to build into next year, which may limit how much more the Fed can cut interest rates.  The dollar added to its gains Thursday after T-note yields rose when US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, and the Sep Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey ...
Dollar Moves Higher with Bond Yields
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-18 14:34
The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.57%.  The dollar is climbing today on positive carryover from Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said higher goods prices are feeding through to inflation and that the FOMC expects inflation to continue to build into next year, which may limit how much more the Fed can cut interest rates.  The dollar added to its gains today after T-note yields rose when US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, and the Sep Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose more t ...
Stocks Shoot to Record Highs
Barrons· 2025-09-18 14:22
LIVE S&P 500, Nasdaq Shoot to New Record Highs Last Updated: 37 min ago S&P 500, Nasdaq Shoot to New Record Highs Subscribe to Barron's Tools By Connor Smith The stock market was shaking off its rate-cut hangover on Thursday. The S&P 500 was up 0.5%, and on track to top its Sept. 15 record close. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.8%, and also on track for a record close. The Dow was up 54 points, or 0.1%. The major indexes were mixed on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by quarter of a ...
Hassett says Fed made 'prudent call,' signaling White House OK with quarter-point cut
CNBC· 2025-09-18 12:35
The Federal Reserve's decision to cut its key borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point seems to be sitting well with the White House, if National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is any indication.In a CNBC interview Thursday, the day after the Fed's move, Hassett noted that the administration, and new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, had been pushing for a bigger reduction. Miran, who is on leave as head of the Council of Economic Advisers, pushed for a half-point cut but was outvoted 11 to 1 on the ...
US Fed starts easing path, other major central banks on hold
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-18 12:22
美联储货币政策转向 - 美联储在9月进行自去年12月以来首次降息 并暗示10月和12月将进一步降息以支持就业市场[1][7] - 美联储主席鲍威尔指出就业市场疲软已成为政策制定者关注的关键问题[7] - 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰投下唯一反对票 他主张更大幅度的50个基点降息[7] 主要央行政策分化态势 - 瑞士央行6月将关键利率降至0% 但市场预计下周会议将维持利率不变 回归负利率门槛较高[1][2] - 加拿大央行周三将关键利率降至三年低点2.5% 为六个月来首次降息 市场定价下月再次降息概率约40%[3] - 瑞典央行虽大幅降息但预计下周会议将按兵不动 8月通胀数据支持价格压力属暂时性的观点[4] - 新西兰联储上月降息25个基点至三年低点3% 路透调查显示10月8日会议可能再次降息[5] 欧洲地区货币政策立场 - 欧洲央行连续第二次会议维持关键利率在2%不变 拉加德称央行处于"良好状态"且经济风险更加平衡[6] - 市场认为欧洲央行降息周期已接近尾声 定价至明年7月约12个基点的降息幅度[6] - 英国央行周四维持利率稳定 日本央行预计周五也将保持利率不变[1]
CAC 40 Rises 1.1% As Stocks Rally On Fed Interest Rate Cut
RTTNews· 2025-09-18 10:47
French stocks are firmly settled in positive territory on Thursday, as the Federal Reserve's 25-basis point interest rate cut and signaling of more easing this year, lifted investor sentiment. Investors are now awaiting the Bank of England's monetary policy announcement, and the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech.The benchmark CAC 40 was up 87.75 points or 1.13% at 7,874.73 a few minutes ago.STMicroElectronics is gaining 4.3%. Legrand is up 3.7% and Capgemini is climbing up 3.2%. Sc ...
The Fed cut interest rates. How quickly will you notice changes?
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-18 09:07
After a lengthy pause, the Federal Reserve on Sept. 17 announced a quarter percentage point cut to its benchmark interest rate. Economists say it is likely the first in a series of reductions that should make borrowing more accessible for consumers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the reduction as “a risk-management cut” against the growing downside risks to employment. But with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target – typically justification to raise rates or keep them steady – Powell acknowledged t ...
Bitcoin Rises After Fed Cuts Rates
Barrons· 2025-09-18 08:22
CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 18, 2025: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit New Highs Last Updated: Crucially, it seems the Fed's independence remains intact since newly appointed Fed member Stephen Miran was an outlier with his calls for half-point cuts at the next two meetings, IG analyst Chris Beauchamp said in a note. Topics Memberships Subscribe to Barron's 13 hours ago Bitcoin Rises After Fed Cuts Rates By Renae Dyer, Dow Jones Newsletters Bitcoin rises, remaining near the one-month high reached earlier ...