核心观点 - 资深投资经理Louis Navellier预测，受三大因素驱动，美国2026年GDP增长将超过5% [2][24] 驱动因素一：持续回岸与贸易逆差收窄 - 特朗普总统的贸易政策及《One Big Beautiful Bill Act》法案通过加速折旧等激励措施，鼓励企业将供应链和生产转移至美国，预计将促进明年国内生产 [7][8][9] - 为规避关税而增加的在岸生产，预计将为2026年GDP增长提供顺风，而进口是GDP的拖累，这在2025年第一季度导致GDP收缩0.6% [10][11] - 贸易逆差正在改善，2025年9月贸易逆差收窄至-528亿美元，为2020年初以来最低月度水平 [11] 驱动因素二：人工智能支出激增 - 人工智能支出是经济增长的重要动力，2025年上半年约占GDP的1.1% [15] - 预计2026年人工智能支出不会放缓，高盛预测大型云数据提供商（超大规模企业）2026年支出将达5330亿美元，较2025年增长34% [15] - 美国银行分析师预计，用于AI数据中心的支出将从2025年的2430亿美元增至2026年的4150亿美元 [16] 驱动因素三：美联储降息预期 - 美联储已在2025年9月、10月和12月连续三次会议各降息25个基点 [1] - 预计美联储将在2026年继续降息，且普遍预期鲍威尔主席任期于5月26日结束后，将由一位更鸽派的新主席接任，愿意通过降息支持增长 [12] - 利率下降将降低借贷成本，释放家庭预算用于可自由支配支出，并提升企业利润，从而推动股价上涨 [13] 宏观经济背景与数据 - 美国经济显现韧性，2025年第二季度GDP增长3.8%，亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型预计第三季度增长3.5%，纽约联储NowCast模型预计第四季度增长1.7% [14] - 通胀担忧可能被夸大，2025年11月CPI同比通胀率为2.7%，低于9月的3% [19] - 美国银行预测2026年核心PCE通胀率：第一季度3.1%，第二季度3.1%，第三季度3.1%，第四季度2.8% [21][26] - 若失业率维持在或高于当前4.6%的水平，低于预期的通胀率将使美联储更有可能加速降息 [22][23]

President Trump interviewed Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller as the White House zeroes in on a short list of four contenders to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, according to a report.Waller had a “strong interview” with Trump that focused heavily on the labor market and ways to jump-start job creation, two senior officials familiar with the meeting told the financial news channel CNBC.The interview took place inside the president’s residence and wrapped up shortly before Trump addressed the nation ...

Key Takeaways The mREIT industry rebounded in late 2025 as mortgage rates fell to 6.21% after multiple Fed rate cuts.Lower rates are expected to lift purchase originations and refinancing, easing earnings pressure for mREITs.TWO, NREF and EFC offer high dividend yields and improving financial trends as rates and volatility decline.The mortgage REIT (mREIT) industry experienced a volatile trend throughout 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainty. Per the Freddie Mac report, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-r ...

Key TakeawaysA record $7.1 trillion in options tied to stocks, ETFs, and indexes are set to expire today, marking a significant "Witching Day" that could amplify market volatility.Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reportedly had a strong interview with President Trump for the Fed Chair position, with discussions focusing on the labor market and potential rate cuts.Truist Securities has raised its price target for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) to $444 from $406, indicating continued analyst confidence despite ...

Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty surged on Friday after four days of decline in tandem with a rally in global markets as a lower-than-expected US consumer price inflation data for November reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Photograph: Danish Siddiqui/ReutersFresh foreign fund inflows also drove the equity markets higher.The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 447.55 points, or 0.53 per cent, to settle at 84,929.36.During the day, it surged 585.69 points, or 0.69 pe ...

The "The constructive CPI report ... starts to ease pressure on policymakers further to potentially get more comfortable cutting rates next year," said Bill Merz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank's Asset Management Group. "We'll want to see follow-through next month to ensure there wasn't too much noise from the shutdown." The three major indexes rebounded from three-week lows. And the Russell 2000 index, tracking rate-sensitive smallcaps, also advanced. A Live Events Traders now see a 58% ch ...

John Moore/Getty Images The US market got a lift from cooler-than-expected inflation and strong earnings outlook from Micron. Cooler CPI has nudged the odds of a rate cut higher in January. Micron is also soothing jitters in the AI sector, where investors have been nervous about high valuations. Stock investors got two pieces of good news on Thursday. US stocks jumped as investors took in a cooler-than-expected inflation report, bolstering confidence in the economy and lifting hopes that the Fed w ...

After coming under considerable selling pressure over the course of the previous session, stocks showed a strong move back to the upside during trading on Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led the rebound by the major averages.The Nasdaq jumped 313.04 points or 1.4 percent to 23,006.36 and the S&P 500 advanced 53.33 points or 0.8 percent to 6,774.76, while the narrower Dow fluctuated before closing up 65.88 points or 0.1 percent at 47,951.85.The strength on Wall Street came following the release of a closely ...

The three candidates interviewed by President Donald Trump so far to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell next May share a desire to cut interest rates, but diverge on other aspects of monetary policy and come from different backgrounds. ...

美国股市表现 - 美国股市在周四普遍上涨 主要受积极的通胀报告推动 该报告可能有助于美联储在明年继续降息 同时美光科技的强劲盈利报告也帮助人工智能相关股票止住了近期的急剧跌势[3] - 标准普尔500指数上涨0.9% 有望创下三周以来最佳单日表现 此前该指数经历了连续四天的下跌[3] - 道琼斯工业平均指数上涨124点 涨幅0.3% 以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数表现领先 上涨1.5%[3] 大麻行业监管动态 - 美国总统签署行政命令 旨在加速将大麻从《管制物质法案》中的一级管制物质重新分类为限制较少的二级管制物质 其公开目标是扩大大麻研究[2] - 重新分类的进程由前总统启动 但在其任内未完成 该事项遗留至现政府处理[2] 高等教育机构人事变动 - 路易斯安那大学系统宣布成立校长遴选委员会 负责为拉斐特分校寻找新校长 该委员会汇集了来自大学社区及各关键利益相关方的代表 旨在引导一个“清晰而审慎的遴选过程”[1] - 委员会首次会议定于1月14日举行 拉斐特分校的长期校长在任职17年后于今年7月辞职[1]