收益率曲线动态 - 收益率曲线通常向上倾斜 长期债券因承担更高久期风险而提供更高收益率[1] - 近年出现非典型曲线形态 包括倒挂和短期利率高于2年期国债的异常情况[2] - 美联储将联邦基金利率降至400-425个基点 直接影响曲线短端下行[6] - 长端收益率可能随降息下降但幅度较小 预计每50基点降息会使10年和30年期收益率下降约20基点[7][9] 货币市场资金流动 - 货币市场基金规模达7.3万亿美元 创历史新高[9] - M2货币供应量从疫情前15万亿美元增至22万亿美元 增幅47%[16] - 货币市场基金规模从疫情前3万亿美元增至7.3万亿美元 增幅143%[16] - 若恢复疫情前占比 约2.9万亿美元超额资金需重新配置[17] 资本配置方向 - 资金可能流向长期国债 压低长端收益率[17] - 部分资金可能转向高风险资产 包括高收益公司债 高股息股票和优先股[18] - 万亿美元级资金流入将推高这些资产价格 重现"别无选择"行情[19] 格拉德斯通商业公司利息节省 - 公司4.62亿美元浮动利率债务与SOFR挂钩[24] - 每25基点降息可减少年化利息支出115.6万美元[24] - 每25基点降息带来每股FFO增加约2.5美分[24] - 预计2025年还有两次降息 累计可增加FFO和AFFO每股7.5美分[28] REIT行业融资环境改善 - 高负债REITs在利率上升环境中受损严重[29] - 长期利率下降使许多REITs能够以5%或更低利率发行8年以上期限债务[30] - 资本密集型和高负债企业将受益于融资成本下降[31] 优先股投资机会 - REIT优先股市场规模较小 少量资金即可推动价格[36] - 数十只REIT优先股收益率超过8% 可能被推至面值以上[38] - 低票息高折价优先股具有更大上涨空间 如PEB-H当前价格18.41美元 面值25美元[39][40] - 若市场收益率降至6.5% PEB-H可能涨至21.92美元 提供19%资本增值加上7.74%收益率[41]

The US dollar has been steadily falling all year. For US-based investors, that can give you a nice tailwind – in GLOBAL stocks and funds. Find out what’s driving this dynamic market – and how can you profit – from MoneyShow experts this week.Mike Larson MoneyShow.comIn this episode of the MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast, emerging markets legend Dr. Mark Mobius shares his outlook on global markets, from Asia’s top growth engines to Latin America’s reform stories.Mobius explains why China is outperforming Indi ...

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -Next week's U.S. jobs data may need to tread a fine line for Wall Street, revealing a cooling labor market that supports further interest rate cuts without fueling fears about a recession. While stocks have edged lower this week, U.S. equity indexes remain near record highs after a relentless rally that has put the benchmark S&P 500 on pace for its best third-quarter performance since 2020. Some investors say the market's ascent is making stocks vulnerable to any ...

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks climbed Friday and trimmed their losses for the week after a report showed that inflation is behaving roughly as economists expected, even if it’s still high. The S&P 500 rose 0.6% and broke its three-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 299 points, or 0.7%, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.4%. All three indexes pulled closer to the all-time highs they set at the start of the week. Stocks got some help from a report showing that inflation in the United St ...

By Erwin Seba HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Friday as Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure cut the country's fuel exports. Brent futures settled at $70.13 a barrel, up 71 cents, or 1.02%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $65.72 a barrel, gaining 74 cents, or 1.14%. Both benchmarks are set to register their biggest increases since mid-June. "Markets continued to be focused on the situation between Russia and Ukraine," said John Kilduff, partner with Again ...

Stocks were on track for their third straight day of losses on Thursday. Major indexes slipped, led by top tech names. Strong economic data sent yields higher, while AI bullishness waned. The record-setting rally in stocks is stumbling this week. US stocks dropped on Thursday as traders took in strong economic data, revised their expectations for Fed rate cuts, and took in wearing momentum in the AI trade. All three major US indexes slipped lower in the early morning, putting them on track for the ...

Key Points The trajectory of interest rates will have a big effect on crypto prices. New data this morning pointed to an economy on sound footing. 10 stocks we like better than XRP › Most cryptocurrencies continued to struggle today after a flash crash earlier this week that may have removed some leverage out of the space. Today, however, investors seem more focused on economic data as they continue to grapple over how many interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve will make between now and the end of ...

All of those things would seem to suggest that this is an economy in trouble. Not so according to the economic data released in the last hour. It showed the US economy growing at the fastest pace in nearly two years, thanks to consumer spending, though apparently not on used cars.Fed Governor Stephen Myron spoke to Bloomberg ahead of that data on the next steps for the Fed. My view is not one of enormous economic pessimism. You know, I don't think the economy is about to crater. I don't think the labor mark ...

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, like it did in September 2025, the best sectors to watch are those tied to consumer spending. Lower borrowing costs ease credit card pressures and free up cash for discretionary purchases. This is why airline stocks have seen such strong momentum in recent quarters, a trend that is likely to continue in the short term. Among exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF NASDAQ: FTXR has delivered a robust 11.6% return to its shareholder ...

U.S. stocks declined for a second straight day, and the futures market was marginally down before the opening bell in New York this morning. Yet even if the S&P 500 notches a third straight day of declines today, traders think it will eventually swing higher. This is despite a feeling among analysts that equity valuations are historically high and the market is being driven by a handful of tech companies. The S&P 500 sank for a second straight day yesterday, but no one’s complaining—it is still up nearl ...