货币政策调整 - 美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%至4.25%之间 [1] - 这是美联储2025年首次降息，也是自去年12月以来时隔9个月的再度降息 [1] - 美联储主席鲍威尔将此次降息定义为“风险管理举措”，并强调当前政策仍具“限制性” [2][3] 政策调整动因 - 政策重心从抑制通胀转向提振就业，因就业市场表现疲软 [1] - 美国劳工部初步修订数据显示，2024年4月至2025年3月美国新增就业岗位比最初统计少91.1万个 [1] - 美联储在政策声明中删除了“劳动力市场状况仍然稳健”的表述，承认“就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升” [1] 未来利率路径预期 - 美联储官员的中位预期是年底前再降息0.5个百分点，意味着在年内剩余两次会议上各降息25个基点 [3] - 预计年底利率区间将降至3.5%至3.75%水平 [3] - 鲍威尔对后续降息路径保持谨慎，强调“没有必要快速调整利率” [2] 对新兴市场的影响 - 美联储降息预计将削弱美元资产相对收益，推动国际资本向新兴市场流动 [3] - 短期看，资本流入有助于缓解当地融资压力，降低企业美元债务成本 [3] - 长期来看，大量热钱涌入可能推高资产估值，滋生泡沫，增加金融脆弱性 [3] 对中国市场的潜在影响 - 中国有望凭借经济体量和市场深度成为资本青睐的目的地，有利于降低融资成本 [5] - 短期资本大进大出可能加剧市场波动，需要加强跨境资本流动的宏观审慎管理 [5] - 需要吸引长期投资者以提升资本流入的稳定性 [5] 宏观经济背景与挑战 - 美联储面临罕见的两难局面，一方面劳动力市场走弱需要宽松政策，另一方面核心通胀率仍维持在3.1% [2][4] - 当前美国经济中的中性利率已出现结构性上升，这在一定程度上制约了货币宽松的实际空间 [5] - 降息周期与财政赤字扩张同步推进，美元作为全球储备货币的地位可能面临新的考验 [4]

债券市场投资者行为 - 投资者正在调整债券市场持仓以应对美联储货币政策转向 [1] 货币政策变化 - 美联储货币政策发生转向 [1]

Join for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too. You do not need to pay for the costly lessons from the market itself.I last analyzed Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY ) stock on July 9th with an article titled "Annaly Vs. Rithm Capital: If You Really Want mREIT, Hold Rithm.” The analysis rated NLY asSensor Unlimited contributes to the investing group Envision Early Retirement which is led by Sensor Unlimited. They offer proven solutions to generate both high income an ...

Join for a 100% Risk-Free trial and see if our proven method can help you too. You do not need to pay for the costly lessons from the market itself.I last analyzed Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NYSE: NLY ) stock on July 9th with an article titled "Annaly Vs. Rithm Capital: If You Really Want mREIT, Hold Rithm.” The analysis rated NLY asSensor Unlimited contributes to the investing group Envision Early Retirement which is led by Sensor Unlimited. They offer proven solutions to generate both high income an ...

Monetary accommodation is still working its way through the euro area economy following rate cuts between June 2024 and June 2025. The recent trading agreement between the US and the EU has reduced pressure to lower rates, while the re-direction of cheap goods from China and elsewhere because of higher US tariffs is likely to further trim prices in the short term. Meanwhile, the euro’s appreciation against the dollar and other currencies is disinflationary. But inflationary pressures could intensify in ...

In a highly anticipated move, the Bank also said it would scale back the sale of long-term debt amassed during lockdown and the financial crisis in a move that should ease pressure somewhat on Ms Reeves.The Bank’s policymakers held interest rates at 4pc on Thursday following last month’s cut from 4.25pc.Her comments raise the prospect of another fuel duty freeze, with Treasury officials also examining the idea of removing VAT on gas and electricity bills in a move that would save households about £86 a year ...

Total household debt in the U.S. hit $185 billion in the second quarter of 2025. The $18.39 trillion increase was tallied from the balances of mortgages, home equity lines of credit (HELOC), auto loans and credit cards. Read Next: Dave Ramsey Says This is the Best Way to Pay Off Debt For You: 5 Types of Cars Retirees Should Stay Away From Buying Debt has increased $4.24 trillion since the last quarter of 2019, according to the New York Fed’s latest Household Debt and Credit Report released in August 2025. ...

Mortgage rates are creeping higher after the Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rates on Wednesday, a counterintuitive but common phenomenon. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 9 basis points on Wednesday to 6.22%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and Treasury yields, which closely track mortgage rates, are moving higher Thursday. Mortgage rates ticked up after the central bank delivered its widely expected 25 basis-point cut, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cautioned that “there is no risk ...

存款利息收入增值税处理 - 存款利息收入不征收增值税 [2] 理财产品利息收入增值税处理 - 保本型理财收益按贷款服务缴纳增值税 一般纳税人税率6% 小规模纳税人征收率3% [4][5] - 非保本型理财收益不征收增值税 [6] - 理财产品转让收益按金融商品转让缴纳增值税 一般纳税人税率6% 小规模征收率3% [8] 债券利息收入增值税处理 - 国债和地方政府债利息免征增值税 [9] - 境外机构投资境内债券在2025年12月31日前暂免增值税 [9] - 企业债券和金融债券利息按贷款服务缴纳6%增值税 [10] 有偿出借资金收入增值税处理 - 按贷款服务征税 一般纳税人税率6% 小规模纳税人征收率3% [11] 固定资产销售增值税处理 - 一般纳税人销售使用过的固定资产可选择简易办法按3%征收率减按2%征收 [20] - 销售额换算公式：销售额=含税销售额÷(1+3%) 销项税额=销售额×3% [21] - 减征的1%应纳税额需填写在增值税减免税申报明细表 [22] 文化事业建设费优惠 - 增值税小规模纳税人月销售额不超过2万元（按季纳税6万元）免征文化事业建设费 [28]

美联储货币政策转向 - 美联储在9月进行自去年12月以来首次降息 并暗示10月和12月将进一步降息以支持就业市场[1][7] - 美联储主席鲍威尔指出就业市场疲软已成为政策制定者关注的关键问题[7] - 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰投下唯一反对票 他主张更大幅度的50个基点降息[7] 主要央行政策分化态势 - 瑞士央行6月将关键利率降至0% 但市场预计下周会议将维持利率不变 回归负利率门槛较高[1][2] - 加拿大央行周三将关键利率降至三年低点2.5% 为六个月来首次降息 市场定价下月再次降息概率约40%[3] - 瑞典央行虽大幅降息但预计下周会议将按兵不动 8月通胀数据支持价格压力属暂时性的观点[4] - 新西兰联储上月降息25个基点至三年低点3% 路透调查显示10月8日会议可能再次降息[5] 欧洲地区货币政策立场 - 欧洲央行连续第二次会议维持关键利率在2%不变 拉加德称央行处于"良好状态"且经济风险更加平衡[6] - 市场认为欧洲央行降息周期已接近尾声 定价至明年7月约12个基点的降息幅度[6] - 英国央行周四维持利率稳定 日本央行预计周五也将保持利率不变[1]