In the chart below, you have Shiller’s CAPE in red and the CAPE based on forward-realized 10-year earnings in blue.Credit to Jake (@EconomPic on X) for already having thought of this a year ago.In other words, up to 2015, we can calculate a valuation ratio using the average of the next 10 years’ realized earnings to understand whether the market was actually cheap or expensive at the time.While we can’t accurately predict earnings through 2035, we have the ability to go back in time to 2015 and beyond to ca ...

Mortgage rates have been coming down, but there has yet to be a spike in homebuying activity—and one leading indicator has even declined. Pending home sales, or signed contracts leading up to a sale, fell for the first time in nearly three months, slipping about 1% during the four weeks ending Sept. 21 compared to a year earlier, according to a Redfin report on Thursday. That’s despite the weekly average mortgage rate sliding for nine consecutive weeks, hitting an 11-month low of 6.26% after reaching 6.8 ...

[Music] Over the summer, many of the home builders started rallying in anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed. But now the Feds start cutting and the group keeps rolling over. So what's going on here.Didn't we want rate cuts to jolt the industry out of the doldrums. Well, let's look at what happened when some of the key home builders recently reported. First, we got Lenar, the Miami based developer that's become one of the largest home builders in the country.Lenar kicked these off last Thursday when they r ...

Mortgage rates rose this week for the first time since mid-July, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.3% from last week's reading of 6.26%. The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.08% a year ago. TREASURY'S BESSENT SAYS FIXING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS WILL BE ONE OF HIS 'BIG PROJECTS' THIS FALL "Housing market activity continues to hold up with purchase ...

We've seen it before, but it’s still jarring. The Federal Reserve lowers short-term interest rates, and mortgage rates inexplicably increase. It happened last September and again with the first Fed cut of 2025 last week. So, what's going on? What happens when the Fed lowers interest rates First of all, the Federal Reserve and mortgage rates are working on two ends of a timeline. The Fed steers short-term interest rates, and mortgage rates are influenced by long-term bonds. When the Fed cuts its federal ...

Mortgage rates inched up after several weeks of decline, but the housing market activity remained solid, according to the latest Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Survey. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.30% as of September 25, up from 6.26% last week and 6.08% in the year-ago ...

Mortgage rates rose slightly this week as financial markets adjusted after the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark federal funds rate. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.3% through Wednesday, up from 6.26% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. 15-year mortgage rates rose to 5.49% from 5.41%. The Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, and it’s not unusual for mortgage rates to rise even after benchmark interest rates are cut. A similar dynamic occurred last year, with mortgage rates hitting th ...

MCLEAN, Va., Sept. 25, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.30%. “Following several weeks of decline, mortgage rates inched up this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Housing market activity continues to hold up with purchase and refinance applications increasing by 18% and 42%, respectively, compared to the same time last year.” News Facts Th ...

Mortgage rates climbed a bit higher today. According to Zillow, the 30-year fixed-rate home loan rose six basis points to 6.45%, while the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage gained five basis points to 5.77%. The 10-year Treasury yield, a benchmark for mortgage rates, has generally risen since the Fed rate cut last week. Read more: How to buy a house in 13 simple steps Today's mortgage rates Here are the current mortgage rates, according to the latest Zillow data: 30-year fixed: 6.45% 20-year fixed: 6.07% ...

Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July to the highest level since January 2022, according to the U.S. Census. It is also the largest one-month gain since August 2022. Sales were 15.4% higher than August 2024.This count is based on people out shopping in August and signing deals, when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was higher than it is today. That rate started August at 6.63%, according to Mortgage News Daily, and didn't really move muc ...