Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research.So Colin, it's a global fixed income story for us this morning with those higher yields off the back of what we got from the BOJ last night. I mean, we've got the 10year, what are we at right now. 414.We're pushing 415 this morning. Japan's 10year high since 99. We're looking at 30-year yields in France, high since ' 09.What do ...

通胀结构分析 - 核心商品价格同比变化为1.4% 这一类别在正常时期通常为负通胀 目前显示出关税的预期影响[3] - 整体CPI同比涨幅为2.7% 被视为一个向好的方向 但需注意其对比的是2024年底美联储加息周期开始时较高的通胀基数[4] - 服务类通胀仍然高企 这是一个与美联储货币政策相关的货币问题 尽管住房成本有所下降 但仍存在来自去年降息周期及后疫情政策的潜在价格压力[5] 关税对通胀的影响 - 关税对通胀的影响尚未完全显现 企业可能在关税实施前囤积了库存 并仍在消化这些库存[7] - 预计关税将在2026年持续推高通胀 甚至可能持续到2027年[8] - 在核心商品通胀的子类别中 能够观察到关税的影响 但这并不一定意味着会广泛推高整体CPI[4] 劳动力市场与货币政策预期 - 劳动力市场略显疲软 月度非农就业增长约为2万人 略低于考虑到移民对劳动力供应影响后的收支平衡点估计[8] - 市场预期下一任美联储主席将累计降息40个基点 但分析认为若此成真 将令任命者失望[9] - 分析预期未来将出现利率下降和通胀上升的局面[9]

One of the key questions for investors in 2026 is what the Fed will do with interest rates, not to mention who will be the next chair. For more on both fronts, let's welcome in Robert Kaplan. He's the former Dallas Fed president, now vice chairman at Goldman Sachs.It's always good to see in person. Welcome back. >> Good to see you, sir.>> All right, let's start with the meeting that just ended. Would you have voted for a cut. >> Uh, I probably on the margin would have argued against a cut, but yes.Uh I thin ...

the unemployment rate ticking up for a fourth straight month to 4.6%. Joining me now, Muhammad Alerian, Alian's chief economic advisor. And Muhammad, the listen, I'm having a little bit of trouble with this jobs report.I don't know about you, just in terms of getting that clear picture of what is really going on. >> So, we should really look through this report. >> Okay.>> There are so many distortions and I think Sher Pal was absolutely right when he said we shouldn't take anything out of it. But if you pu ...

talk more about the data today and the market. Joining us today is Ed Yardenni, president of Yardeni Research, who joins us here at Post9. Happy holidays, Ed.Good to see you. Can you bundle all this data into a couple of phrases. >> Yeah, I think the economy in terms of uh final demand, GDP growth is still quite good.Labor market is funky with a lot of uh different uh things going on in that marketplace. uh but the conclusion is productivity must be extremely strong and uh that's good. I mean that actually ...

Joining us now for more on the markets and jobs, Joe Mato, president CIO at Newberger Berman. Joe, great to have you with us. Good >> to be here.Thank you. >> Um, it's interesting to get the jobs report now after the Fed decision. How important is this for you.>> I think the data is really important. I think the state of the labor market is one of the critical issues in terms of determining what the Fed path is going to be. And, you know, our sense is you're going to continue to see a grinding, weaker labor ...

就业市场与美联储政策 - 即将发布的12月就业报告（在1月FOMC会议前公布）比当前报告更为重要 能更清晰地反映年末劳动力市场状况[2] - 失业率可能从当前约4.5%的水平 在12月报告时升至4.7%甚至更高 这足以成为美联储在1月再次降息的理由[8][9] - 劳动力市场处于脆弱且不稳定的状态 尽管4.5%的失业率仍相对较低 但持续的增长和过去约两年半以来极低的招聘率令人担忧[5][6] - 若未来出现裁员增加的迹象 劳动力市场状况可能显著恶化 导致美联储需要更大幅度地降息[9] 通胀前景与构成分析 - 存在通胀重新加速的潜在可能性 近期许多报告指出了这种风险[4] - 住房通胀（在CPI和PCE通胀中占很大比重）的领先指标（如房价、市场租金数据）在过去一年左右均已走软 预计明年全年住房通胀可能比通常情况更为温和[11][12] - 通胀的第三个重要组成部分是其他服务通胀 其趋势非常依赖于工资增长 而工资增长又取决于劳动力市场是否进一步走弱[14] - 第三季度就业成本指数数据显示 就业成本出现了近期最疲软的增长 表明工资增长正在放缓 这减轻了对其他服务通胀的担忧[15] - 整体来看 在需求更疲软的环境下 通胀正在放缓[15] 人工智能投资与宏观经济影响 - 人工智能的持续建设似乎是推动明年GDP增长的一股力量 但目前存在大量投资承诺[16] - 从宏观经济角度 很难将这些已宣布的投资计划纳入预测 因为需要评估其对总体增长的影响[18] - 部分人工智能投资可能只是从其他行业转移而来 总体影响并不明确 此外 今年早些时候设备投资的部分强度似乎与计算机进口等前置采购有关 因此总体而言 这未必全是商业投资的新增长点[18]

Listen on the go! A daily podcast of Wall Street Breakfast will be available by 8:00 a.m. on Seeking Alpha, iTunes, Spotify.Getty Images Good morning! Here is the latest in trending:Major reset: Ford (F) expects to take a $19.5B write-down and will end production of several electric vehicles as "EVs just weren't selling," its CEO Jim Farley said.23/5 trading: Nasdaq (NDAQ) is reportedly submitting paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch round-the-clock trading of stocks.Trump vs. BB ...

Key Takeaways The U.S. economy likely lost an average of 20,000 jobs per month between April and September, rather than the reported average gain of 43,000 jobs per month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said.A downward revision of job growth would be yet another red flag about the health of the labor market. The job market, already thought to be slowing down, may be in even worse shape than it seemed at first.The U.S. economy likely gained an average of around 60,000 fewer jobs each month than previ ...

Economists want to see whether the combined report shows a sharp deterioration in an already fragile labor market — or whether the job market appeared to stabilize. ...