Key TakeawaysChina's central bank is signaling a dual focus on improving monetary policy while also tightening control over money regulation, indicating potential shifts in its financial oversight.RBC's CEO McKay announced plans to significantly expand the bank's wealth adviser team by acquiring U.S. companies, signaling strategic growth in the North American market.The European Union and Vietnam are advancing their Free Trade Agreement (FTA), establishing a task force to review issues and anticipating more ...

Now that we've heard from the president of the UN, let's start on the next big focus for the market and that will be the Fed chair's speech this afternoon that follows the Fed's quarterpoint rate cut just last week. Joining us this morning, chief economics correspondent of the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timos is with us. Nick, good to have you.Welcome back. >> Thanks for having me, Carl. >> We always sort of have I don't know when pal speaks expressor kind of low expectations.His remarks might not get to mon ...

In a new essay, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Qashqari says he sees two more rate cuts coming from the central bank this year. Steve Leeman uh joins uh us now with Mr. . Qashqari.Hey, Steve. And hey, Neil. >> Good morning.>> Thank you, Joe. Let's bring in Mr. . Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed.Neil, let's talk about your um essay this morning, which is fascinating. And I just want to ask you uh first about one of the things that you say in your piece, which is that you're concerned that there cou ...

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Why Michael Kramer from Mott Capital Management and Reading The Markets is focused on Fed dot plot, BOJ meeting (0:30). What happens with inflation expectations? (6:15) AI hype, tech stock valuations (9:00). Undervalued names in healthcare (25:30). Metrics for different stocks and sectors and long-term themes (27:50). Transcript Rena Sherbill: Happy to welcome back to Investing Experts, always a pleasure ...

美联储政策与利率前景 - 市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点 概率达97%-98% 仅2%概率降息50个基点[4] - 关键焦点在于利率点阵图对降息周期终点的预测 这将影响收益率曲线陡峭化程度[5] - 十年期国债收益率报4.03% 三个月期收益率报3.97% 收益率曲线处于历史平坦状态[6] - 若终端利率维持在3%附近 三十年期收益率可能升至6%-7% 较联邦基金利率高出450个基点[15] 日本央行与汇率影响 - 日本央行会议可能承诺进一步加息 因日本通胀上升且美日利差收窄[7] - 利率差异收缩将显著施压日元 可能导致日元大幅走强[8] 科技股估值与市场风险 - NVIDIA因中国禁售芯片政策面临风险 此前获准出口H20芯片时股价大幅上涨[9] - NVIDIA在标普500指数中权重达8%-9% 其下跌可能拖累整个市场[10] - 科技股集中度风险显著 前几只股票在指数中占比达40%[26] - 当前市场状况与1998-1999年科技泡沫时期相似 存在估值过高风险[22][24] 个股估值分析 - NVIDIA以25倍市销率交易 若降至5倍需实现8000亿美元年收入 目前年收入约2000亿美元[44][45] - 微软历史市盈率峰值在35倍 当前接近40倍可能过高[55] - 亚马逊估值基于营运现金流倍数 AWS现金流能力支撑整体业务[50][63] 医疗保健板块机会 - 医疗保健板块相对科技板块处于历史低估状态[57] - 联合健康集团在270美元价位被买入 业务基本面稳健[58] - Zoetis受益宠物医疗需求增长 疫情期间宠物数量增加将带来长期用药需求[60] 行业分析与投资方法 - 不同行业适用不同估值指标 软件公司关注毛利率 亚马逊关注营运现金流[63][64] - Fair Isaac公司毛利率达80% 收入增长15%-20% 估值随利润率扩张[64] - 直觉外科公司在35倍市盈率时具备投资价值 受益机器人手术长期趋势[67] - 投资决策需结合估值 技术面和期权市场定价[62] 长期投资主题 - 人工智能在药物研发和血液检测等医疗领域有应用潜力[69] - 关注消费趋势变化 如年轻群体偏好TikTok和Snapchat而非Instagram[70] - 星巴克领导层变更可能带来转型机会 前ChipotleCEO任职带来新预期[71]

Now, let's bring in former Federal Reserve Board Governor, Columbia University economics professor Frederick Michigan. He is also a CNBC contributor. Uh, Professor Michigan, you heard Steve's kind of state of play for the Fed.What exactly in your mind is the most important factor that the Fed is debating or deliberating about right now as it looks towards what is a presumptive 25 basis point rate cut. So what's happening now is something that is always very uncomfortable for a central bank which is where yo ...

美联储利率决议预期 - 美元在美联储政策决议前小幅走高[1] - 市场普遍预期美联储将恢复降息25个基点 根据LSEG数据[2] - 9月密歇根大学消费者信心调查显示一年期通胀预期维持在48%高位 五年期通胀预期从8月的35%升至39%[2] 市场反应 - 道指预计高开 市场焦点集中于美联储政策[1]

欧元/美元汇率走势 - 欧元兑美元周五上涨+0.03% 从早盘跌势中回升 因欧央行管委Nagel鹰派言论引发空头回补 其表示进一步降息可能危及2%通胀目标[1] - 央行政策分化支撑欧元 市场认为欧央行基本结束降息周期 而美联储预计年底前降息约三次[1] - 欧央行10月30日会议降息25基点概率仅为3% 显示欧央行维持利率稳定倾向[6] 美联储利率预期 - 市场定价9月16-17日FOMC会议100%概率降息25基点 6%概率降息50基点[2] - 预计10月28-29次会议再次降息25基点概率为91%[2] - 市场预计年底前联邦基金利率总体下调70基点 从当前4.33%降至3.63%[2] 通胀与消费者信心 - 密歇根大学9月1年期通胀预期维持在+4.8%符合预期 但5-10年期通胀预期意外升至+3.9%(8月为+3.5%) 高于下降至+3.4%的预期[3] - 美国9月消费者信心指数下降-2.8至55.4 创4个月新低 低于58.0的预期[3] 美元指数表现 - 美元指数周五上涨+0.04% 因国债收益率上升强化美元利差优势[5] - 美元从高位回落因消费者信心指数不及预期且标普500创新高抑制美元流动性需求[5] - 美元承压因美联储宽松预期增强及对美联储独立性的担忧 可能引发外资抛售美元资产[4] 地缘政治风险 - 俄乌谈判"暂停"及波兰击落无人机事件升级欧洲地缘风险 对欧元构成压力[6] - 地缘风险升级提振避险资产需求 包括贵金属[11] 日元汇率动态 - 美元兑日元周五上涨+0.22% 因美日财长重申由市场决定汇率 降低日本央行干预可能性[7] - 日经指数创新高减少日元避险需求 且国债收益率上升加剧日元跌势[7] - 日本政治不确定性施压日元 首相辞职后执政党失去议会多数 可能转向更扩张性财政政策[8] 贵金属市场 - 12月黄金周五上涨+12.80美元(+0.35%) 12月白银上涨+0.681美元(+1.62%) 白银期货创合约新高及14年高点[10] - 贵金属上涨因劳动力市场疲软及价格压力受控 强化美联储降息预期[11] - 中国人民银行8月增持0.06百万金衡盎司黄金至74.02百万盎司 连续第十个月增持黄金储备[11] - 地缘政治风险及法日政治不确定性推动黄金避险需求[12] - 贵金属ETF持仓量创新高 黄金ETF持仓达2.25年高点 白银ETF持仓达3年高点[13]

Meanwhile, a new op-ed in the Wall Street Journal out today. Our next guest saying the assault on the Fed's independence should concern everyone. Former Federal Reserve vice chair and Princeton professor Alan Blinder joins us now to discuss his piece as well as this morning's inflation print.So, I know we've had you on before, Alan, and and you and you've been worried about what the president's doing with Lisa Cook and sort of jaw boning around Fed Chair Powell, but is there any real evidence that the Fed i ...