Front and center this hour, the state of the AI trade. Many of the biggest names down again today. Has it left this market vulnerable to a larger pullback.We will discuss that with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Josh Brown, Joe Cheranova, Bill Baroo, and Jim Leenthal. So, we've said stocks are down again, which they are across the board.Not by a large amount obviously, but nonetheless, uh the consistency of today's move uh is one that we're watching. Rates are an issue, and they re ...

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday called stocks "fairly highly valued". Sha Hanting / China News Service / VCG via Getty Images Close Key Takeaways The present AI frenzy is often compared with the Dotcom Bubble of the 1990s, a parallel that some investors think was invoked, intentionally or not, by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday. "Equity prices are fairly highly valued,†said Powell when asked during an appearance in Rhode Island about the Fed's risk tolerance. Nonetheless, ...

CNBC's "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer highlighted the conflicting forces driving the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, pointing to both caution and urgency in corporate spending. This comes amid a report from GQG Partners, which argues that the AI investments are exhibiting the dotcom era “on steroids.”Cramer Says AI Spending Hate Won't Stop The Demand SurgeCramer’s post on X captures the essence of the AI arms race that GQG believes is inflating a dangerous bubble.He highlights that a simultaneous “revulsi ...

公司表现与市场反应 - 甲骨文公司股价在9月10日单日上涨36% 市值单日增加2550亿美元 加入单日市值增长超2500亿美元的公司俱乐部（成员包括英伟达、苹果、微软）[1][2] - 股价飙升直接诱因为Q1 FY26财报披露后市场对云基础设施业务的乐观预期 尽管净利润符合预期但收入略低于预期[3] - 公司计划将云基础设施业务收入从FY25的102亿美元提升至FY30的1440亿美元 实现14倍扩张 对应年复合增长率达70%[3] - 剩余履约义务（RPO）金额达4550亿美元 同比增长359% 环比增长230% 预计未来数月将突破5000亿美元[6][7] - 当前云基础设施业务仅占总收入17%（基于FY25总营收574亿美元） 过去五个季度该业务恒定货币收入平均同比增长51% 其他业务增速仅2.5%[10] 行业竞争与资本支出 - 人工智能竞赛推动前所未有的资本开支 亚马逊、微软、 Alphabet、Meta、甲骨文（按开支规模降序排列）过去三个财年合计投入5860亿美元 预计未来两年将投入8600亿美元[17] - 五大科技公司固定资产周转率（仅考虑有形资产）从10年前的4.6倍下降至当前2.2倍 反映资产密集型转型趋势[19] - 若以4.6倍乘数估算2025年4000亿美元资本开支 需产生1.85万亿美元增量收入才能匹配效率 但五大公司当前总营收仅1.5万亿美元 云业务总收入约2500亿美元[21] - 美国经济分析局数据显示 2025年Q2信息处理设备与软件投资（科技资本支出）对GDP贡献率达0.8% 首次超越个人消费支出（PCE）对GDP的贡献（0.7%）[23][27] 估值风险与市场集中度 - 甲骨文与OpenAI达成3000亿美元协议（2027年起为期五年） 导致4550亿美元RPO中大部分依赖单一客户 产生集中度风险[9] - OpenAI作为风险投资支持的初创企业 年经常性收入约100亿美元但持续亏损[9] - 甲骨文当前市盈率达69倍（9月19日数据） 较上周大涨前的54倍进一步攀升 过去五年股价上涨400% 但盈利仅增长23%[13] - 前十大人工智能股票（含英伟达、微软、苹果、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉、甲骨文、博通、Palantir）自2020年1月以来合计市值增加18万亿美元 占标普500指数同期31万亿美元市值增长的60%[14][16] - 非盈利云服务公司CoreWeave市值610亿美元 FY24营收19亿美元 净亏损8.63亿美元 Palantir市值4330亿美元 营收仅29亿美元[32] 技术演进与行业挑战 - 人工智能应用目前集中于摘要生成、媒体创作、转录等领域 模型同质化明显 尚未实现大规模差异化部署[30] - 关键应用场景（如机器人、自动驾驶）未来十年内难以实现大规模部署[31] - 大型语言模型（LLM）训练依赖高端GPU 但较小模型正取得显著进展 可能降低对算力的依赖[29] - 未上市AI初创企业估值高企 OpenAI估值约3000亿美元 Anthropic估值1800亿美元 Mistral估值140亿美元 均获微软、亚马逊、ASML等产业链巨头投资[33]

Global investment firm GQG Partners has issued a stark warning that the current technology market is exhibiting “dotcom-era overvaluation,” with a combination of soaring capital spending and weakening fundamentals that could lead to repercussions more pronounced than the 1999 crash.Current Conditions More Fragile Than Dotcom Bubble?In a new research report titled “Dotcom on Steroids,” the firm argues that the AI-driven boom has pushed the tech sector to a dangerous inflection point, masking underlying risks ...

Global investment firm GQG Partners has issued a stark warning that the current technology market is exhibiting “dotcom-era overvaluation,” with a combination of soaring capital spending and weakening fundamentals that could lead to repercussions more pronounced than the 1999 crash.Current Conditions More Fragile Than Dotcom Bubble?In a new research report titled “Dotcom on Steroids,” the firm argues that the AI-driven boom has pushed the tech sector to a dangerous inflection point, masking underlying risks ...

I am mostly a trader engaging in both long and short bets intraday and occasionally over the short- to medium term. My historical focus has been mostly on tech stocks but over the past couple of years I have also started broad coverage of the offshore drilling and supply industry as well as the shipping industry in general (tankers, containers, drybulk). In addition, I am having a close eye on the still nascent fuel cell industry.I am located in Germany and have worked quite some time as an auditor for Pric ...

交易策略与行业覆盖 - 交易策略包括日内多空交易以及中短期头寸 [1] - 历史重点为科技股 过去两年扩展至海上钻井与供应行业以及航运业整体覆盖（油轮、集装箱、干散货） [1] - 持续密切关注处于早期阶段的燃料电池行业 [1] 专业背景与经验 - 拥有近20年日内交易经验 曾作为审计师任职于普华永道 [2] - 成功应对互联网泡沫破裂、911事件后续影响及次贷危机等市场波动 [2]

投资策略与行业覆盖 - 交易策略包括日内多空投注以及中短期头寸 [1] - 历史重点为科技股 过去两年扩展至海上钻井与供应行业以及航运业整体覆盖（油轮、集装箱、干散货） [1] - 密切关注新兴的燃料电池行业 [1] 从业背景与市场经验 - 具备近20年日内交易经验 曾作为审计师任职于普华永道 [2] - 成功应对互联网泡沫破裂、911事件后续影响及次贷危机等市场波动 [2]

交易策略与行业覆盖 - 交易策略包括日内多空投注以及中短期头寸 [1] - 历史重点为科技股 过去两年扩展至海上钻井与供应行业及航运业全面覆盖（油轮、集装箱、干散货） [1] - 持续关注新兴燃料电池行业 [1] 从业背景与市场经验 - 具备20年日内交易经验 曾担任普华永道审计师 [2] - 成功应对互联网泡沫破裂、911事件后续影响及次贷危机等市场波动 [2] - 持续为Seeking Alpha社区提供高质量研究内容 [2]