Gold climbed to a fresh record, with traders weighing China’s plan to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves in a bid to strengthen its standing in the global bullion market. The People’s Bank of China is using the Shanghai Gold Exchange to court central banks in friendly countries to buy bullion and store it within the country’s borders, according to people familiar with the matter. The Asian nation is the world’s biggest producer and consumer of the precious metal, and the country taking ...

LIVE Dow Set to Open Up Ahead of Powell's Fed Speech Last Updated: Traders are pricing in a 73% chance that borrowing costs fall half a point by the end of 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That likely implies further quarter-point cuts at the Fed's next two meetings, in October and December. The central bank lowered rates by a quarter of a point last week, although Powell described it as a "risk- management cut," which implies that policymakers will only carry on easing monetary policy if the labor ...

In his first public speech as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran dissented sharply with his colleagues, calling for aggressive interest rate cuts and warning that current monetary policy is "very restrictive".Miran Argues Real Neutral Rate Is ‘Near Zero’Speaking at The Economic Club of New York, Miran argued that the appropriate federal funds rate is in the "mid-2 percent area," nearly two percentage points below its current level, and that failing to act poses "material risks to the Fed's ...

涉及的行业或公司 * 报告广泛覆盖全球跨资产类别，包括股票、债券、大宗商品和外汇市场 [1][2][3][4] * 重点分析的大宗商品包括黄金、原油和铜 [2][3][4] * 涉及的股票指数包括标普500指数、欧洲斯托克600指数、TOPIX指数和MSCI亚太（除日本）指数 [4][23] * 提及的行业包括基础资源行业，特别是欧洲基础资源指数（SXPP） [3][4] 核心观点和论据 * **市场背景与央行政策**：市场延续“risk on”模式，股市上涨，债券收益率温和承压 美联储如期降息25个基点至4%，英国央行维持利率在4%不变，日本央行维持政策指引在0.5%不变 [1] * **黄金表现强劲**：黄金自8月以来涨势加速，过去一个月回报率达+12%，为自1980年以来月度回报率的98百分位 上涨受到期货头寸增加、ETF流入以及央行季节性需求上升的支持 鸽派政策重新定价和美元走弱是黄金的顺风，但近期涨势表明其相对资产宏观定价（PC1“全球增长”和PC2“货币政策”因子及美元指数）的隐含贝塔值有所超调 大宗商品团队仍看好其中期目标每盎司4000美元，但投机性头寸已显著增加 [2] * **原油表现疲软**：原油在过去12个月的表现低于其宏观定价的隐含贝塔值 大宗商品团队预计，由于供应增长强劲，油价将在2026年进一步下跌 [2] * **资产表现分化与铜/油比率**：年内至今，多数原油相关资产的表现优于其对油价的贝塔值 外汇中的出口国相对于进口国表现最佳，部分受新兴市场货币“追逐利差”和Goldilocks背景支持 铜/油比率自2022年低点持续上升，今年甚至超过了PC1“全球增长” 部分原因可能是资产中对**中国增长乐观情绪**的提升 [3] * **基础资源股票滞后**：基础资源股因铜价上涨而反弹，但欧洲基础资源指数（SXPP）的表现滞后于铜价和美国同业 [3] * **资产配置与目标预测**：公司对12个月 horizon 保持温和亲风险态度，但战术上中性 股票策略师将标普500指数的3/6/12个月目标分别上调至6800/7000/7200，TOPIX目标上调至3300/3300/3400 利率团队将10年期英国国债年末预测修正为4.4% 大宗商品策略师仍看涨黄金、看跌原油，并预计铜价在未来12个月大致持平 [4] * **估值与头寸**：报告包含大量图表数据，显示各类资产的估值百分位、收益率、资金流动、相关性、波动率及市场情绪指标 [23][64][67][74][105][108] 其他重要但可能被忽略的内容 * **期权策略机会**：报告指出，尽管不是基准情景，但若铜价持续上涨可能利好欧洲基础资源指数（SXPP），且其看涨期权隐含波动率相对于黄金和金矿股显得便宜，使得看涨期权转换策略具有吸引力 [4] * **数据发布与演讲日程**：全球PMI数据和核心PCE数据是本周主要宏观数据，预计将有多次美联储官员讲话 [1] * **研究方法与风险提示**：报告包含大量附录，详细说明了研究方法、模型构建细节（如风险偏好指标RAI）、监管认证和重要披露信息，强调投资者应仅将本报告视为其投资决策的单一因素 [5][6][31][32][35][199][200] * **团队贡献**：报告感谢了投资组合策略团队的实习生Siumi Abeywickrema的贡献 [21]

Key TakeawaysGold prices surged to fresh record highs above $3,700 per ounce, fueled by growing investor optimism for further U.S. interest rate cuts following the Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point reduction.Nvidia (NVDA) announced a landmark $100 billion investment in OpenAI, solidifying a strategic partnership to expand AI infrastructure with at least 10 gigawatts of compute capacity, while reassuring other clients of continued support.Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran publicly defended his cal ...

克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，她仍将高度关注通胀问题，官员们在考虑降息时应保持谨慎，以免导致 经济过热。哈马克表示，尽管近期就业增长有所放缓，但仍有迹象表明劳动力市场依然强劲，比如裁员 数量较少以及失业率较低。同时，她指出，通胀率已超过美联储 2%的目标水平超过四年之久，而且可 能还要再过几年才会回到美联储的目标水平。 哈马克周一说道："我认为，在取消货币政策限制方面我们应当格外谨慎。令我担忧的是，如果我们将 这种限制从经济中取消掉，可能会导致经济再度过热。" 美联储官员正在讨论今年进一步降低借贷成本的幅度。上周他们已将利率下调了25个基点，这是自去年 12 月以来的首次降息。一些政策制定者开始对劳动力市场面临的日益加剧的风险感到更为担忧，而另 一些人则主要担心高于目标水平的通胀可能会因关税及其他政策而进一步上升。 哈马克表示，在上周降息之后，相关政策的限制性程度"仅算轻微"。这样一来，利率距离中性水平仅有 一小段距离，既不会刺激经济增长，也不会抑制经济增长。 她说道："我觉得劳工方面的情况还算不错，但我真的很担心通货膨胀方面的情况。" 哈马克本月早些时候表示，鉴于通胀率高于美联储设定的 2% 的目标水平，且有 ...

US stock futures were little changed on Tuesday after another record-setting day on Wall Street. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), the S&P 500 (ES=F), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) all wobbled around the flat line. Stocks jumped on Monday to clinch a third straight day of record-high closes, lifted by high hopes the AI trade and further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts will continue to fuel the rally. On the tech side, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led gains after Nvidia (NV ...

stock surged back near an all-time high as the company announced plans to invest up to $100 billion in The Nvidia OpenAI deal represents one of the largest artificial intelligence investments, combining OpenAI's development capabilities with Nvidia's semiconductor technology for data center construction.Also read: Tesla stock reaches 2025 high amid self-driving focusTesla stock was positioned to close Monday at a 2025 high as investors anticipated the company's self-driving future and new product developme ...

I'm not attempting to provide an impossible degree of precision, but a general ballpark. Based on this analysis, I believe the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid 2% area, almost two percentage points lower than current policy. The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses.And I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2%. However, leading policy restrictive by such a large degree brings s ...

By Howard Schneider and Michael S. Derby WASHINGTON (Reuters) -New Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that the Fed is misreading how tight it has set monetary policy and will put the job market at risk without aggressive rate cuts, a view countered in remarks by three of his colleagues who feel the central bank needs to remain cautious about inflation. Miran, a week into his new job on leave from the Trump administration, told the Economic Club of New York he feels the central bank has ...