市场整体表现 - 法国CAC 40指数早盘冲高后涨幅收窄 但仍保持上涨0.38%至7778.94点 盘中曾触及7823.34高位 [1][2] - 市场情绪稳定 受新总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科爾努就任及美联储大幅降息预期提振 [1] - 投资者关注欧洲央行政策会议及美国通胀数据发布 [1] 行业个股表现 - 工业防御板块领涨：泰雷兹集团涨超3.5% 依视路陆逊梯卡涨近3% 施耐德电气涨2.2% 罗格朗涨近2% [3] - 金融与制造业普涨：阿塞洛米塔尔/布伊格/法国农业信贷/空客/法国兴业银行均涨1%-1.5% [3] - 科技与基建板块温和上行：达索系统/安盛/万喜/赛峰/维旺迪/威立雅小幅上涨 [3] - 消费板块承压：保乐力加跌2.5% 雅高/意法半导体/电话电报/家乐福跌1.2%-2% [3] - 奢侈品与汽车板块走弱：开云集团/斯特兰蒂斯/雅苒/欧莱雅显著下跌 [3]

核心观点 - 美联储可能降息推动房地产股票动量显著提升 三家公司进入行业前10%分位 [1][2] - 房地产行业受益于借贷成本降低和商业及住宅需求增长预期 [2][8] 房地产公司表现 - Alset Inc (AEI) 动量排名从80.69升至95.75百分位 周环比增长15.06个百分点 年内涨幅46.38% 年涨幅112.63% [8] - Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) 动量排名从76.97升至92.14百分位 周环比增长15.17个百分点 年内涨幅57.09% 年涨幅15.66% [8] - Paramount Group (PGRE) 动量排名从88.37升至89.75百分位 周环比增长1.38个百分点 年内涨幅45.97% 年涨幅50.21% [8] 行业背景 - 美联储9月17日会议降息概率达100% 市场预期借贷成本下降将刺激房地产需求 [9] - 房地产开发商、办公REITs和数字房产平台成为主要受益板块 [1][2] 市场数据 - SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 上涨0.23%至650.33美元 [10] - Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) 上涨0.28%至580.51美元 [10]

加密货币市场反应 - 加密货币市场总市值在两小时内损失600亿美元[1] - 比特币价格从112,78875美元下跌18%至110,79369美元[2] - 以太坊价格从4,34656美元下跌16%至4,27717美元[2] 竞争币表现 - 狗狗币出现最大跌幅达41% 从0.2469美元跌至0.2367美元[3] - 索拉纳下跌3% 从21804美元跌至21169美元[3] - 卡尔达诺下跌35% 从0.8839美元跌至0.8525美元[3] - XRP下跌25% 从3.01美元跌至2.93美元[3] - BNB下跌1% 从879.89美元跌至871.38美元[3] 就业数据修正 - 美国劳工统计局公布初步基准修正显示非农就业人数被高估911,000个岗位[2] - 修正幅度达06% 涵盖2024年3月至2025年3月期间[2] - 结合先前向下修正577,000个岗位 总就业高估达150万个岗位[4] 经济政策影响 - 财政部长指出修正数据证实经济状况比报告更差[4] - 美联储基于虚高就业数据维持限制性货币政策[5] - 就业数据高估表明经济需要比政策制定者认识更早的宽松货币政策[5] 数据修正背景 - 年度基准修订过程比较当前就业统计与季度就业和工资普查的全面就业计数[6] - 06%的修正幅度超过十年绝对平均值02%[7] - 差异源于企业向失业保险记录报告的就业人数低于月度就业调查[7]

Ed Yardeni, founder and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, sees an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve leading to "a plain, old, vanilla melt-up" and a bull market that continues to maybe 7,700 or higher on the S&P 500 by the end of next year. ...

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight as investors position themselves ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve’s meeting, where US policymakers are expected to slash interest rates. Lower interest rates usually incentivise investors to bet on risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Last year’s August rate cut ended up doubling Bitcoin’s price, and traders are betting that history is about to repeat itself. The top crypto can “easily get to $200,000 before the end of the year,” Tom Lee, managing partner at Fundstra ...

Key Points A Fed rate cut could lead to more interest in cryptocurrencies, XRP included. The SEC is planning to decide on XRP ETFs in October. Ripple, the company behind XRP, has partnered with more than 300 financial institutions that use its payment network. 10 stocks we like better than XRP › Once the hottest cryptocurrency in the world, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has seen its momentum grind to a halt. Its price dropped about 7% last month, and it has been below $3 for more than a week. XRP isn't in di ...

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks rose to more records on Tuesday after the latest update on the job market bolstered Wall Street’s hopes for a slowdown that’s deep enough to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but not so overwhelming that it causes a recession. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% and squeaked past its all-time high set last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 196 points, or 0.4%, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.4%. They likewise set records. Traders have become convinced that the ...

Wall Street has a new religion: the rate cut. But to receive its blessings — beefier market valuations, more robust lending activity, a stronger-ish economy — there must first be a sacrifice. It'll have to be the U.S. economy being sacrificed. Economic data has become the backbone of investors' macro predictions, with investors increasingly leaning on jobs and inflation data to predict whether the Fed will cut interest rates. Doing so would stand to bolster equities, already at all-time highs, and bring d ...

Key Points XRP and other cryptocurrencies are seeing gains thanks to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Investors are anticipating a rate cut in response to recent signs that the U.S. economy is slowing. News that the SEC could approve a Dogecoin ETF is also lifting XRP today. 10 stocks we like better than XRP › XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is seeing strong gains in Monday's trading. The cryptocurrency's token price had risen 3.8% over the past 24 hours as of 6:40 p.m. ET. At the ...

全球政治动荡与市场波动 - 阿根廷比索暴跌6%至历史新低 股市Merval指数重挫13% 因地方选举引发政治动荡 [1][3][6] - 日本和法国政治危机加剧市场不确定性 日元下跌0.2% 法国议会罢免总理加深政治危机 [3][4][6] - 全球共同面临高通胀、政府债务上升、经济不确定性及民粹主义等问题 [7] 美联储政策预期与利率走势 - 市场定价美联储下周降息50基点概率约10% 渣打和法兴银行呼吁降息50基点 [2] - 投资者预期至明年底至少降息150基点 30年期美债收益率下降8基点至4.7%以下 [3][10] - 4月2024至3月2025就业数据修订若超预期 可能强化降息50基点理由 [1] 资产价格表现与资金流向 - 纳斯达克创新高 MSCI全球指数及日经指数接近峰值 科技和可选消费板块领涨 [3][6] - 黄金上涨1.5%至每盎司3,646美元新高 两周内涨10% 年内涨幅近40% 中国央行连续10个月增持黄金 [3][7][8] - 油价上涨0.6-0.8% OPEC+选择适度增产 美元广泛走弱 尤其对纽元和瑞郎 [3] 美债市场结构性变化 - 四周期国库券发行量达1,000亿美元里程碑 9月4日拍卖为连续第五次创纪录发行 [9][11] - 政府债务期限策略转向超短端 10年期与4周期收益率倒挂（4.08% vs 4.20%） [10][11] - 国库券占未偿联邦债务比例升至近21% 预计18个月内新发行量或超1.5万亿美元 [15][16] 流动性风险与市场结构 - 短债集中发行加剧展期风险 银行准备金降至3万亿美元以下 或再现2019年货币市场波动 [13][14] - 货币基金持有6.4万亿美元国库券市场的36% 资产规模从2020年4.7万亿增至7万亿 [17] - 稳定币发行商对国库券需求激增 但发行可能对回购利率和融资成本构成上行压力 [14][17]