Bitcoin has returned to its week low of $85,500 after suffering the dreaded "Bart Simpson pattern" earlier on Wednesday in which the price quickly runs higher, flattens out for a few minutes, and then just as quickly plunges to its previous spot. The resulting shape on the charts ends up looking similar to the head of the famous cartoon character. The crypto market again appears to be stuck the troublesome scenario of not being at all correlated with stocks when they're headed higher, but having a 1:1 co ...

内需消费与金融专场：银行行业主题报告 20251217 摘要 货币政策预计维持宽松，低利率环境持续。监管强调适度宽松，首次提 出个人信用修复政策以支持消费，预计 2026 年流动性保持宽裕，降息 幅度或达 10-20 个基点，降准幅度 25-50 个基点。 银行业未来政策重点在于绿色贷款、普惠贷款和科技类贷款的稳健增长， 这些领域在过去两年已展现出相对稳定的发展态势。 银行业盈利改善主要由利差业务驱动，但需关注零售端资产质量风险。 信贷需求不足和投资增速下滑拖累贷款增速，预计 2026 年新增人民币 贷款 15.7-16.8 万亿，余额增速 5.8%-6.2%，社融增速 7.9%-8.2%， 政府债是主要支撑。 资产端，LPR 调降幅度放缓，银行内部定价托举，新发放贷款利率降幅 收窄。负债端，存款利率挂牌调整后，存款成本下降，但上市银行存款 成本变化滞后于挂牌利率调整，未来存款成本红利有望持续释放。 预计 2026 年银行业净息差将收窄 6 个基点至 1.36%，但规模增长将推 动上市银行净息收入增速提升至 4%左右。中收业务受益于费率调降因 素消退和资本市场活跃，财富管理业务显著回暖，预计改善趋势延续。 Q ...

Up until October, the cryptocurrency market appeared simply unstoppable, commanding a total capitalization of approximately $4.28 trillion. Much of the positive sentiment originated from abundant liquidity and elevated risk appetite. However, the capital markets are often known for their capricious non-linearity and decentralized digital assets found themselves caught out. What followed was a rapid – and negative – repricing, with fear once again becoming the dominant emotion.While the initial volley of red ...

Comments on Tuesday from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic were hawkish and negative for stocks when he said, "After wrestling with all the considerations, today I continue to view price stability as the clearer and more pressing risk despite shifts in the labor market." He added that "he sees little to suggest that price pressures will dissipate before mid to late 2026, at the earliest, and expects inflation to remain above 2.5% even at the end of 2026."The US Dec S&P manufacturing PMI fell -0.4 to a 5- ...

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is building the case for a change in the interest rate the central bank targets to achieve its monetary policy goals. ...

Your first guest today might agree with that. He's been saying on this show for a while to diversify beyond just big tech. So, let's see what he has to say about that.What to buy, what to own next year. Joe Tennuse is chief investment strategist at Northern Trust and he joins us now. I know that's not you.You're not Bank of America, but >> but I'm not surprised. >> Okay. Are you seeing similar types of data at Northern Trust.>> We are. I think there's genuinely a lot of excitement about the opportunity ahea ...

The Kelsey prediction markets agree by the way with Hasset now back ahead of former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh who took the lead I think just this week. Hasset leading the odds today with a 53% chance of getting the nod. Worsh down to 34.While the market debates which Kevin could win the horse race, we wanted to ask what would be the real difference between them as far as the market can discern. Let's bring in Dan Clifton. He's head of policy research at Strategus.Dan, the task goes to you. I'm sure everyone ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.28% and slid to a 2.25-month low.  The dollar is under pressure from today's Fed-friendly US economic reports on Nov payrolls, Oct retail sales, and Dec S&P manufacturing activity that bolster the outlook for the Fed to keep easing monetary policy. The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts liquidity in the financial system and began purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills effective last Friday.  Finally, the dollar is also being undercut by concern ...

Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw their largest daily net outflows in roughly two weeks, shedding a combined $582.4 million Monday as institutional investors pared exposure amid renewed volatility in U.S. equities and uncertainty over the direction of global monetary policy. Net daily outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $357.6 million at their peak on Monday, the largest single-day redemption since early December, per data from Farside Investors. Selling was spread across Fidelity’s FBTC, Ark’s ARKB, ...

Joining us now for more on the markets and jobs, Joe Mato, president CIO at Newberger Berman. Joe, great to have you with us. Good >> to be here.Thank you. >> Um, it's interesting to get the jobs report now after the Fed decision. How important is this for you.>> I think the data is really important. I think the state of the labor market is one of the critical issues in terms of determining what the Fed path is going to be. And, you know, our sense is you're going to continue to see a grinding, weaker labor ...