Following the strong upward move seen in the previous sessions, stocks may give back ground in early trading on Friday. The major index futures are currently pointing to a slightly lower open for the , with the S&P 500 futures down by 0.1 percent.Profit taking may contribute to initial weakness on Wall Street following yesterday's rally, which lifted the major averages to new record closing highs.Overall trading activity may be somewhat subdued, however, as traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve's monet ...

Signs of U.S. economic struggles continue to grow ahead of September's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Many advisors and investors find themselves looking to increase longer duration exposures to their portfolios ahead of potential rate cuts. The Neuberger Berman Total Return Bond ETF (NBTR) offers diversification and active management benefits across core plus bonds. Notable weakening in recent jobs market data boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts this month. August hiring came in sign ...

美联储利率政策预期调整 - 摩根士丹利和德意志银行预计美联储将在2024年剩余三次会议（9月、10月、12月）各降息25个基点，此前仅预测9月和12月各降息一次 [1] - 两家机构认为近期通胀压力缓和为降息提供条件，市场预期下周政策会议开启宽松周期概率达95% [1][4] 降息路径与政策立场 - 摩根士丹利预测美联储将从下周会议开始连续四次降息25个基点，持续至2025年1月，2026年4月和7月可能进一步降息 [3] - 美联储主席鲍威尔曾暗示9月会议可能降息，但强调通胀风险仍存 摩根士丹利认为市场条件允许更快转向中性政策 [2] 市场预期与机构分歧 - CME FedWatch工具显示市场定价下周降息25基点概率为95%，降息50基点概率仅5% [4] - 渣打银行成为唯一预测本月降息50基点的机构，与普遍共识出现分歧 [4]

政策变动影响 - 美国终止小额免税政策（de minimis exemption）对UPS和FedEx业务前景构成重大挑战 该政策此前允许价值低于800美元的包裹免税进入美国[2] - 根据美国海关数据 这些免税货运占所有进入美国货物的92% 即每天400万件包裹[2] - 美银估计国际优先和经济包裹占FedEx收入的17%和UPS收入的16% 分别对应FedEx每日1700万件包裹中的110万件和UPS每日2000万件包裹中的170万件[3] 公司财务影响 - 美银将FedEx评级从"买入"下调至"中性" 目标价下调5美元至240美元 显著低于MarketScreener追踪分析师平均预估的264美元[6] - 对UPS采取更悲观立场 评级从"中性"下调至"逊于大盘" 目标价设定为83美元 远低于分析师平均预估的104美元[6] - UPS股价今年下跌33% 周四收报84.50美元 公司7月未能达到利润预期且拒绝提供业绩指引[6] - FedEx股价今年下跌18.7% 周四收报228.50美元 公司6月已暂停全年展望[6] 行业需求变化 - 政策变化导致许多包裹现在需缴纳进口税 预计将减少来自国外电子商务商品的需求 如中国电商平台Temu和Shein[3] - 零售商Lululemon和Kate Spade母公司Tapestry表示 预计政策变化将使今年利润减少数千万美元[3] - 如果美联储官员决定降息 可能会刺激更广泛的经济活动 进而支持消费者支出和相关运输需求[4]

特朗普政策对市场影响 - 特朗普政策通过社交媒体和关税威胁导致市场高度波动 传统经济指标作用减弱 市场反应常与基本面背离 [1][2] - 2025年8月正式实施10%至41%的"互惠"关税 海关税收创历史新高 [3] - 特朗普要求欧盟对印度和中国商品征收100%关税 但同期与印度总理莫迪称谈判持续进行 [4] 印度市场反应 - 印度IT股因外国机构投资者流入而上涨 HCL科技9月9日上涨182%至₹1,42795 9月10日达₹1,46390 [4] - TCS 9月10日上涨199%至₹3,11000 [4] - 敏感指数单日上涨超440点 Nifty指数突破25,000点 [10] 巴西市场影响 - 7月10日宣布8月1日起对巴西进口征收50%关税 因前总统博尔索纳罗审判分歧 [5] - 巴西ETF下跌近2% Itau Unibanco下跌38% 桑坦德银行下跌35% 巴西国家石油公司下跌04% [5] - 巴西雷亚尔最初下跌23% 次日反弹05% [5] 美国科技股表现 - 纳斯达克综合指数上涨09% 英伟达市值达4万亿美元 [5] - 标普500创新高 道琼斯工业平均指数温和上涨 [5] - 尽管欧盟对字母表罚款35亿美元 其股价仍上涨086%至235美元附近 [9] 加拿大及全球市场 - 2025年3月对加拿大商品征收25%关税 能源和钾肥征收10%关税 [6] - 加拿大2025年第二季度经济因出口下降收缩16% [6] - 全球市场出现抛售潮 日经指数下跌4% 韩国Kospi下跌3% 英国富时100下跌09% 德国DAX下跌13% 法国CAC下跌16% [6] 贸易协议动态 - 美英达成贸易协议但维持10%对英关税 [11] - 2025年9月美欧协议将新关税上限设为15% 低于最初威胁的30% [12] - 欧盟同意取消对美工业品关税 采购大量能源产品和AI芯片 在美战略领域投资6000亿美元 [12] 货币政策影响 - 通胀数据29%和疲弱就业数据推动道指上涨617点 因市场预期美联储可能降息05% [13] - 关税政策被指加剧通胀 形成政策与市场期望降息的反馈循环 [13][14] 法律风险因素 - 最高法院正在审理关税合法性 若裁定使用《国际紧急经济权力法》无效可能导致股市下跌和利率上升 [12] - 约1000亿美元关税收入可能被退还 但纳斯达克仍接近创纪录水平 [12]

By Sinéad Carew and Iain Withers NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - MSCI's global equities index edged higher on Friday, after registering a record close in the prior session, while U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after sliding the day before when expectations climbed for U.S. rate cuts. The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers showed that U.S. consumer sentiment fell for a second straight month in September to its lowest point since May, as consumers saw rising risks to business conditions, the labor m ...

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed up +0.85%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +1.36%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.60%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) rose +0.81%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.60%. Stock indexes settled higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100 all posting new record highs.  Stocks rallied after Thursday’s as-expected Aug CPI report and an unexpected surge in ...

Key Points Investors are expecting unemployment data to force the Fed to cut interest rates next week, despite hotter-than-expected inflation. The Federal Reserve faces a tough balancing act with inflation still nearly a percentage point above its 2% target while jobless claims have hit their highest level since October 2021. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) climbed higher on Thursday, finishing the day up 6%. The spike came as the S&P 500 ga ...

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Thursday rose by +0.37%. The euro moved higher on Thursday after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, and raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast. The euro added to its gains on hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said the ECB now sees growth risks in the Eurozone as more balanced and the disinflationary process is over, signaling the ECB is done cutting interest rates.The markets are now pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 bp rate cut and a 10% chance of a 50 bp ...

The inflation-adjusted price of gold reached a record high for the first time since the 1980s while trading above $3,610 per ounce, according to a recent post by The Kobeissi Letter on September 11. Rising inflation plus upcoming interest rate cuts are “gold’s dream setup,” highlights the analyst, which also relates to Bitcoin’s value proposition—historically correlated to gold and both tied to economic data. Basically, the inflation-adjusted gold price takes historical nominal prices and multiplies them ...