Gold (GCV25) remains in the spotlight this morning after flashing a rare technical signal: extreme overbought conditions not seen in nearly half a century. According to a recent X post from Barchart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold now sits at 89.72 on the monthly chart, its highest reading since at least 1980. More News from Barchart The yellow metal has rallied sharply in recent months, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, central bank buying, and investor demand for safe-haven assets. www ...

Bitcoin's reaction to the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since December has been subdued. Prices have remained broadly unchanged over the past three months, while volatility has compressed to around 26%. Unlike earlier easing cycles, this move has not sparked a breakout, signaling that investors do not yet see the Fed's pivot as a decisive turning point. Futures markets still consider the possibility of three cuts this year, but the muted response suggests uncertainty over how deep and durable the easing ...

美联储降息对房地产市场影响 - 美联储重启降息周期 住房类股票成为可能受益领域 [1] - 住房类股票近期表现活跃 因市场已开始消化更多货币宽松政策 [1]

美联储政策与市场反应 - 美联储宣布降息25个基点 并暗示未来可能进一步宽松 部分原因是劳动力市场降温及就业下行风险增加[1] - 市场预计10月会议再次降息概率达89.8% 两年期国债收益率3.52% 十年期国债收益率4.05%[2] - 联邦基金利率预测显示2026年底仅降至3.4% 较2025年底3.6%的预测仅下降0.2个百分点 预示2026年可能不会有一次完整降息[13][14] 股指期货与ETF表现 - 美股期货普遍上涨：道指期货升0.75% 标普500期货升0.89% 纳斯达克100期货升1.06% 罗素2000期货升1.50%[2] - SPDR标普500ETF(SPY)盘前涨0.84%至664.72美元 Invesco纳斯达克100ETF(QQQ)涨0.98%至595.80美元[2] 个股业绩与股价变动 - 通用磨坊(GIS)2026财年Q1业绩略超华尔街预期[4] - 曼联(MANU)因Q4财报表现不一 股价下跌超6%[4] - 达登餐饮(DRI)盘前涨1.03% 市场预期其营收30.4亿美元 EPS为2美元[18] - FactSet(FDS)盘前涨1.15% 市场预期其营收5.9345亿美元 EPS为4.13美元[18] - 联邦快递(FDX)盘前微升0.12% 市场预期其营收216.7亿美元 EPS为3.62美元[18] 大宗商品与全球市场 - 原油期货微跌0.05%至64.02美元/桶 黄金现货跌0.09%至3,656.70美元/盎司[19] - 亚洲市场涨跌互现：中国沪深300、香港恒生和澳大利亚ASX200下跌 印度Sensex、日本日经225和韩国Kospi上涨[20] - 欧洲市场早盘交易走高[20] 历史表现与分析师观点 - 历史数据显示美联储降息周期第二年标普500平均回报率达16.4% 第一年平均回报率为9.6%[8][11] - LPL金融首席股票策略师指出 只要经济避免衰退 降息周期第二年股票通常表现强劲[9] - 当前周期第一年(2024年9月18日至2025年9月18日)标普500回报率超17% 高于历史平均水平[10] 行业板块表现 - 标普500多数板块收涨 消费必需品、金融和材料板块涨幅居前 信息技术和工业板块逆势下跌[3] - 道指收涨0.57%至46,018.32点 标普500微跌0.097%至6,600.35点 纳斯达克综合指数跌0.33%至22,261.33点 罗素2000小涨0.18%至2,407.34点[6][7] 经济数据 - 美国8月新屋开工数环比下降8.5%至年化130.7万套 低于预期的137万套 建筑许可环比降3.7%至年化131.2万套[5] - 每周初请失业金数据和费城联储制造业调查将于美东时间8:30公布 领先经济指标数据将于10:00公布[18]

Neils ChristensenNeils Christensen has a diploma in journalism from Lethbridge College and has more than a decade of reporting experience working for news organizations throughout Canada. His experiences include covering territorial and federal politics in Nunavut, Canada. He has worked exclusively within the financial sector since 2007, when he started with the Canadian Economic Press. Neils can be contacted at: 1 866 925 4826 ext. 1526 nchristensen at kitco.com @Neils_cShareDisclaimer: The views expressed ...

By Ankika Biswas (Reuters) -Investors are extending bullish bets on Asia’s emerging equities as prospects of further monetary easing outweigh domestic risks, fund managers said this week. A dovish Federal Reserve gives Asian central banks more flexibility to ease policy without stoking currency pressures, Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. Markets expect around 67 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cuts by the year-end, including a 25-bps redu ...

美联储货币政策转向 - 美联储预计在7月31日结束的货币政策会议上进行自去年12月以来的首次降息 以支撑疲软的劳动力市场[2] - 市场预计此次降息将开启一系列宽松政策 到明年年底前预计有近6次标准25个基点的降息[2] 股市历史表现规律 - 历史数据显示宽松周期开始后股市在未来一年内普遍上涨[3] - 降息尤其利好与国内经济周期性相关的行业 包括银行、住宅建筑商、材料公司和中小型企业[3] 市场结构变化 - 降息可能促使市场领导力从巨型科技公司转向更广泛的板块 实现市场参与的多元化[3][4] - 小盘股罗素2000指数本季度表现超越大盘股标普500指数 显示资金已提前布局宽松预期[4] 经济环境预期 - 投资者预期降息将防止劳动力市场进一步疲软 创造利率下降但经济保持稳定的"金发姑娘"环境[5] - 若经济恶化 当前高估值股票将面临显著风险[5] 潜在风险因素 - 股市面临的主要尾部风险是经济软着陆情景不成立 美国可能已处于衰退之中[6] - 市场将密切关注美联储政策声明、经济预测及鲍威尔发布会言论是否与市场预期一致[6]

美联储利率决策 - 市场预计美联储有97%概率降息25个基点 3%概率降息50个基点[1] - 更大力度降息可能对美元形成显著压力[2] 美元汇率表现 - 美元徘徊在两个半月低点附近 投资者聚焦央行政策动向[1] - 通胀上升背景下 激进货币宽松可能引发政治压力担忧[2]

Gold hit a fresh record as investors bet on a US Federal Reserve rate cut this week and weighed the scope for more monetary easing in the coming months. Bullion rose above $3,700 an ounce for the first time, supported by a gauge of the US dollar falling to the lowest in more than 10 weeks. While a rate cut this week is priced in by markets, the Fed will also release its quarterly update of economic and rate forecasts, dubbed the dot plot, and Chair Jerome Powell will hold his post-decision news conferenc ...

美元汇率走势 - 美元全面下跌 欧元兑美元汇率上涨0.9%至1.1867美元 创2021年9月以来最高水平 [1] - 美元指数下跌0.7%至96.636 创7月1日以来最低水平 [1] - 英镑兑美元汇率上涨0.5%至1.366美元 创两个多月新高 [6] 美联储政策预期 - 市场预期美联储将降息25个基点 主要驱动因素是劳动力市场数据快速软化 [2] - 投资者预计美联储将释放鸽派信号 包括点阵图经济预测和新闻发布会 [3] - 美联储主席鲍威尔计划在政策声明发布后举行新闻发布会 [3] 经济数据表现 - 美国8月零售销售数据超预期增长 但未能缓解美元压力 [5] - 英国劳动力市场持续疲软 公司 payroll 人数连续第七个月下降 [7] - 英国私营部门基本工资增长放缓 5-7月期间从4.8%降至4.7% [7] 政策制定者立场 - 美联储被预期淡化通胀风险 明确偏向支持劳动力市场 [4] - 特朗普总统重申呼吁激进的货币宽松政策 [2] - 资本经济学认为美联储将坚持渐进式政策宽松步伐 [6]