In the chart below, you have Shiller’s CAPE in red and the CAPE based on forward-realized 10-year earnings in blue.Credit to Jake (@EconomPic on X) for already having thought of this a year ago.In other words, up to 2015, we can calculate a valuation ratio using the average of the next 10 years’ realized earnings to understand whether the market was actually cheap or expensive at the time.While we can’t accurately predict earnings through 2035, we have the ability to go back in time to 2015 and beyond to ca ...

US personal spending rose in August by more than forecast as underlying inflationary pressures held steady. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose by 0.4% for a second month. The core personal consumption index rose 0.2% from July. Bloomberg's Michael McKee breaks down the data and how it's impacting the Federal Reserve and economy. ...

High tariffs, lingering inflation and more trouble finding a job apparently haven't been enough to throw consumers into funk. Americans increased spending again in August to help keep the U.S. economy chugging. ...

25 September final Q2 GDP was positively surprising, one of the largest upward revisions to a final figure in recent years, and showing the strongest growth in nearly two years. This article summarises recent events affecting the dollar, primarily GDP, then looks briefly at the charts of EURUSD and GBPUSD. The upward revision to last quarter’s GDP seems to be particularly positive because it comes after a quarter of contraction and because the latest revision comes primarily from consumer spending: With ...

ToplineThe U.S. economy grew at a rate much higher than originally reported in the second quarter as consumer spending rose, according to revised data released Thursday by the Commerce Department, bringing surprise to economists. One economist noted a revision to economic growth—nearly 1% above initial reports—was “outside the norm.”Getty ImagesKey FactsReal gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, up from an earlier revision of 3.3% and initial reports of 3% growth, ...

This story was originally published on Retail Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Retail Dive newsletter. Through most of 2025, retailers and brands have told investors they will bump up prices where they can in order to mitigate the fallout from tariffs. As consumers contend with fresh economic challenges — and as the holidays draw nearer — this already intricate balance of protecting margins and maintaining demand is getting more fraught. In May, Target CEO Brian Corne ...

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN ) has contrasting forces at play that may be holding back shares from stronger growth. With growing concerns for consumer spending as the U.S. economy weakens, growth across its consumer-facing businesses may be at risk. On the other hand, Amazon has aMonte Independent Investment Research: Michael Del Monte is a buy-side equity analyst with over 5 years of industry experience. Prior to working in the investment management industry, Michael spent over a decade in professional s ...

Just because the stock market is soaring to new heights doesn't mean that the macroeconomy is rallying as well. On the contrary, consumer-facing businesses have been flashing warning signs on consumer confidence and spending for severalWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular contri ...

零售销售总体表现 - 8月零售总额环比增长0.5% 略高于历史平均水平但低于7月的1.5%增幅[1][2] - 零售销售额同比增长6.8% 核心零售销售(剔除餐厅)环比增长0.3% 同比增长6.7%[2][3] - 数据显示近期消费支出存在显著波动 消费者可能在关税生效前提前购买商品[3] 分行业表现 - 数字产品类别表现最佳 环比增长1.6% 近几个月持续保持0.5%-1.5%的增长区间[4][7][8] - 餐厅酒吧增长显著 反映 discretionary spending 食品饮料增长1% 综合商品增长0.4%[4][5] - 体育用品和业余爱好商店下降0.8% 建筑和园艺用品下降2.1% 显示部分 discretionary 类别疲软[5] 消费驱动因素 - 消费支出由稳定的消费者基础和强劲的返校购物季推动 受低燃料成本和免税假期支持[4] - 部分增长可能反映进口商品的通胀效应 12个行业中有8个出现增长[4] - 名义消费支出保持坚挺 但经通胀调整后过去三个月实际消费支出表现疲弱 可能反映关税影响[6]

股市与宏观经济 - 股市创下历史新高 但宏观经济与股市表现出现分歧信号 尤其在消费者支出领域[1] 行业专家背景 - Gary Alexander兼具华尔街科技公司分析经验与硅谷从业经历 并担任多家种子轮初创公司外部顾问[2] - 其研究覆盖当前塑造科技行业的核心主题 自2017年起定期为Seeking Alpha供稿 观点被Robinhood等交易平台转载[2] （注：文档3和文档4为披露声明与免责条款 根据任务要求已自动过滤）