My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen.At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interes ...

Schelsey with ABC News. The latest inflation report shows that prices are still going up across key categories for many households including groceries. What will the Fed do if prices pick up more.So our our expectation and you can see this consistently through the year has been that inflation will move up this year but that the the effect basically because of the effects on goods prices from tariffs but that uh those will turn out to be a one-time price increase as opposed to creating an inflationary proces ...

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up.Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower ou ...

"In addition to the political jabs aimed at them, the Fed is in a tough spot. They expect stagflation, or higher inflation and a weaker labor market. That is not a great environment for financial assets. One could call the Fed's move a risk management-style rate cut. It shows the Fed is putting more emphasis on the softening in the labor market as they trimmed rates while forecasting more cuts in 2025.""We believe that diversifying portfolios across geographies and currencies and sectors, following a decade ...

ToplineThe Federal Reserve on Wednesday opted to ease interest rates for the first time in months, leading the way for potentially lower mortgage rates, bond yields and a likely boost to cryptocurrency over the coming weeks. Average long-term mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in months ahead of the central bank’s policy shift.Copyright{2018} The Associated Press. All rights reserved.Key FactsThe central bank’s policymaking panel voted this week to lower interest rates, which have sat between 4.2 ...

经济活动和就业市场状况 - 2025年上半年经济活动增长放缓[1] - 就业增长放缓且失业率小幅上升但仍保持低位[1] - 通胀上升并保持较高水平[1] 货币政策目标和风险评估 - 委员会寻求实现最大就业和2%的长期通胀目标[2] - 经济前景不确定性升高且就业下行风险增加[2] - 委员会将监测经济前景信息并准备调整货币政策立场[4] 利率政策调整 - 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4%-4.25%[3] - 准备金余额利率降至4.15%[8] - 主要信贷利率下调25个基点至4.25%[8] 公开市场操作安排 - 开展隔夜回购协议操作最低投标利率4.25%总额度5000亿美元[8] - 隔夜逆回购操作利率4%对手方每日限额1600亿美元[8] - 国债到期本金每月超过50亿美元部分展期[8] - 机构债和MBS每月超过350亿美元本金再投资于国债[8] 投票结果和分歧 - 11位委员投票支持降息25个基点[6] - 1位委员反对并支持降息50个基点[6]

美联储政策立场调整 - 美联储认为经济前景风险转向劳动力市场疲软 当前限制性政策不再合理 需要进行立场调整以接近中性水平[3] - 预期2024年底前降息幅度至少75个基点 可能达到100个基点 8月就业数据疲软和通胀数据显示有限关税传导为连续降息提供条件[4] - 货币政策需要从限制性转向中性 使美联储能够更好应对经济演变 而非维持限制性立场[12][13] 劳动力市场状况 - 劳动力市场疲软迹象全面显现 不仅体现在新增就业数量 还包括向下修正数据以及医疗保健以外所有行业缺乏就业创造[5][6] - 企业通过吸收部分关税成本来应对高关税率 这导致招聘活动减少 进而削弱劳动力市场和整体经济[7][8] - 尽管失业率处于低位 劳动力市场整体仍相对健康紧张 但就业数据指向下行风险[11] 经济前景与政策时机 - 当前经济状况不支持50个基点的降息幅度 但确实需要一系列降息来维持经济扩张[2][5] - 存在政策调整窗口期 需要立即行动提供必要的缓冲刺激 才能将适度扩张延续至2026年[9][13] - 税收削减的刺激效果预计将在明年显现 但目前尚未发挥作用[8]

美联储政策预期 - 预计美联储将释放鹰派降息信号 市场定价2024年降息约70个基点 但美联储可能仅暗示年内降息两次 2025年再降息两次 [1] - 鲍威尔可能避免直接否定市场预期 但不会提供明确的前瞻指引 特别是对10月会议降息20个基点的市场预期不予置评 [2] 市场关注焦点 - 市场将重点关注会议中的异议投票 尤其是新任官员Miran的货币政策立场 其可能提出75或100个基点的降息异议 [3][4] - 若出现100个基点的降息异议 虽概率较低 但将影响市场对未来政策路径的预期 [4] 资产配置策略 - 当前约20万亿美元现金及现金等价物面临再投资决策 货币市场账户4%的收益率可能因终端利率降至3-3.25%而失去吸引力 [5][6][9] - 经济强弱将决定资产偏好：若经济走弱则长端债券更具配置价值 若经济保持强劲（航空、银行业高管确认及零售销售数据支持）则权益资产比现金更具吸引力 [7][8] 经济数据矛盾 - 当前经济存在软数据（调查问卷走弱）与硬数据（实际经济指标稳健）的分化 特别是劳动力市场与零售销售数据表现强劲 [7] - 投资者需判断美联储是否落后于经济曲线 这将影响后续政策路径与资产价格走向 [7]

With all of the confrontation and drama that has surrounded this meeting. They're behind closed doors now. Culturally speaking, can the Fed handle this.I think that the Fed has been put in an unprecedented situation. That said, as you alluded to, we pretty much think we know what's going to happen with the interest rate decision. The Fed has been signaling for quite some time that they were seeing interest rate cuts on the horizon, but not yet.I think markets and the signals we've been getting from various ...

Key TakeawaysMoody's upgraded SoftBank's (9984.T) debt outlook to positive from stable, affirming its Ba3 rating due to improved credit fundamentals, although SoftBank views this as an unsolicited rating and is considering legal action.German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasized the urgent need to reform the country's pension system in response to a changing society and an aging demographic, while also seeking new trade partners outside the trans-Atlantic region.PwC UK is cutting approximately 175 jobs and ...