Bitcoin has typically performed well in a low interest rate environment, but the asset may not rise in the aftermath of a widely expected U.S. central bank interest rate slashing on Wednesday, say analysts, who believe markets have already priced in the cut.  The analysts say that traders will be looking more keenly at what Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell says in the press conference after the announcement.  "It does seem to be pretty priced in," Juan Leon, Bitwise's senior investment strategist, told D ...

"The overall set-up is reminiscent of September 2024 when rates were doing the same thing for the same reasons ahead of Fed meeting with a virtual 100% chance of a rate cut," said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily. "Back then, mortgage rates moved paradoxically higher after the Fed rate cut. The same thing could happen this time, but it's by no means guaranteed."The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped 12 basis points from Monday to 6.13%, according to Mortgage New ...

However, someone forgot to tell that to the algorithms! You know, the ones that have much greater sway over what happens to our stock market wealth than corporate earnings, or even what the Fed does. This week is all about the market’s reaction, which is what occurs based on its interpretation. That is aided heavily by Wall Street analysts and macro pundits. In other words…One big assumption I’m making is that when the rate cut is announced, the stock market will do what it has conditioned itself to do: act ...

LIVE S&P 500 Builds on Record High as Fed Rate Call Comes Under More Scrutiny Last Updated: 38 min ago Gold Hits Record as Investors Pile Into Fed Rate- Cut Bets By George Glover Gold was glistening again on Tuesday, climbing to yet another record high with investors certain the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates for the first time this year. Futures climbed 0.3% to just under $3,734 an ounce in early trading. The gains mean bullion is now up 41% for the year, surging amid a central-bank buying ...

11:13 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 976.81 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持仓变化 更新时间:2025-09- 1,000 990 980 970 960 950 940 2025-07-24 2025-08-11 2025-08-29 2025-07-02 9月15日，现货黄金再度拉升，尽管亚市盘中盘整于3650美元/盎司下方，但是进入美市早盘后直线拉升，最高触及3685.62美元/盎司，再创纪录高位，收报 3678.66美元/盎司，涨35.71美元或0.98%。 在金价再度拉升之际，黄金ETF持仓量也结束此前的减持态势，小幅增加2吨。 基本面消息，美元指数跌至一周低位和美债收益率的大幅下挫，推升了美市早盘的金价，直逼3700美元关口。投资者正为9月16-17日美联储货币政策会议做 准备，市场对降息预期高涨。 据CME集团的FedWatch工具显示，交易员认为美联储在周三结束的两日会议上首次降息的概率为100%。这将是九个月来的首次降息。此外，市场预期美联 储将在10月和12月再次降息，这使得美国国债收益率保持低位，美元接近7月24日以来的最低水平。 德意志 ...

A Fed cut in 2007 could hold some clues as to how things might play out this time around, according to the Leuthold Group. ...

Markets:Gold up $39 to record $3681US 10-year yields down 2.1 bps to 4.04%WTI crude oil up 67-cents to $63.36S&P 500 up 0.5%Nasdaq rises for ninth dayCAD leads, USD lagsIt was a Monday melt-up in equity markets that started with modest gains that slowly extended. The positive momentum extended after a soft Empire Fed and a spike in Tesla shares after Elon Musk bought $1 billion shares in the open market on Friday, according to a filing. Shares of Google also hit a record on increasing interest in Gemini aft ...

美联储利率政策预期 - 多数前美联储官员预计2024年剩余时间将进行两次降息 分别为本周和12月各一次[4] - 市场预期更为鸽派 定价10月降息概率达80% 12月再降息一次[5] - 美联储较6月立场更趋鸽派 因就业市场显疲软迹象 非农数据遭大幅下修[5] 经济数据与金融条件 - 劳动力市场基础收窄 增长动力基本集中于医疗保健行业[8] - 当前季度GDP增速跟踪达3% 但债券收益率下降且利差收窄[8][9] - 金融条件已显宽松 股市上涨且企业发债活跃[9][10] 通胀与政策风险 - 通胀指标全面上升 PPI和CPI均走高 关税政策产生传导效应[11] - 若美联储丧失独立性 中期通胀预期可能脱锚 导致未来需更高利率压制通胀[21] - 政策错误风险源于董事会可能受白宫影响推行过低利率[18] 利率削减模式分析 - 保险式降息发生于经济稳健但放缓时 银行股与小盘股企稳[24] - 滞后性降息出现于数据恶化时 美联储被迫追赶经济下行趋势[24] - 历史数据显示 无衰退情境下降息后12个月股市平均上涨20% 衰退情境下平均下跌13%[26][27] 市场监测指标 - 小盘股（罗素2000）关键位为2400点 银行股（KBW指数）需守稳140点[29][30] - 企业信用压力指标IGCDX指数上升预示借贷压力增大[30] - 周度失业救济申请人数跃升至四年高位 若趋势持续需警惕[32] 美联储领导层变动 - 前官员调查显示21名受访者中克里斯·沃勒获选为下任主席最佳人选[14] - 沃勒被视为独立决策者 受市场信任但被认为实际获任概率较低[15][19] - 白宫热门候选人凯文·哈塞特未获任何前官员支持[16]

The Fed is poised to resume its cutting cycle this week. A quarter-point policy rate ease is anticipated, with a small chance of a jumbo 50-basis-point cut. The dovish inflection could be bullish for U.S. small caps.Freelance Financial Writer | Investments | Markets | Personal Finance | RetirementI create written content used in various formats including articles, blogs, emails, and social media for financial advisors and investment firms in a cost-efficient way. My passion is putting a narrative to financi ...

BTIG and other strategists see a "sell the news†event for stocks this week — and a potential pullback for the S&P 500 not seen since April. ...