投资评级 - 报告未明确给出行业投资评级 但Bull & Bear指标显示中性信号6[0][54][55] 核心观点 - 美国"高温运行"政策组合(减关税 减税 降利率)推动经济加速 抵押贷款再融资活动创2020年3月以来最大增幅[2][21] - 黄金(+35[4]%) 比特币(+17[2]%) 股票(+14[3]%)领涨年内资产表现 美元(-9[3]%)和石油(-11[4]%)表现最差[1] - 真正牛市需具备货币与股市同步上涨特征 日本出现20年来首次股汇正相关格局[3][27][28] - 资产价格通胀正向消费物价通胀传导 美国家庭股票财富年内增加6万亿美元[4][23] - 小盘股策略受关注 美国小盘股年内涨8%落后大盘 中国小盘股涨51% 欧盟和日本均涨25%[2] 资金流向分析 - 单周资金流向：股票流入684亿美元(为2024年12月以来最大) 债券流入143亿美元(3个月最小) 加密货币流入38亿美元 黄金流入20亿美元 现金流出48亿美元[13][19] - 年内累计流向：现金流入1万亿美元(史上第三高) 黄金流入850亿美元(创纪录) 国债流入1410亿美元(史上第三高) 投资级债券流入3810亿美元(史上第二高) 新兴市场债券流入630亿美元(史上第二高) 全球股票流入6340亿美元(史上第三高) 美国股票流入2940亿美元(史上第三高)[19] - 美银私人客户资产配置：股票占比64[6]%(2022年3月以来最高) 债券占比18%(2022年5月以来最低) 现金占比10[4]%(2018年9月以来最低)[16] 市场技术指标 - 美银牛熊指标维持在6[0]中性水平 看涨因素包括FMS现金水平低至3[9]% 全球股票指数广度强劲 新兴市场股票流入 看跌因素包括信贷流入减少 对冲基金做多2年期国债期货[17][54][56] - 全球广度规则：87%的MSCI ACWI国家股票指数交易在50日和200日移动平均线之上 接近超买状态(88%为卖出信号)[18] - 泡沫交易特征：历史10次股市泡沫平均涨幅244% 峰值市盈率58倍 指数交易高于200日均线29% 科技七巨头当前涨幅223% 市盈率39倍 高于200日均线20% 显示仍有上涨空间[19][25] 板块表现分析 - 2025年迄今表现最佳：希腊股市(+77[8]%) 西班牙股市(+59[3]%) 韩国股市(+56[6]%) 南非股市(+49[9]%) 中国股市(+41[3]%)[62] - 板块表现突出：电信(+30[6]%) 银行(+29[9]%) 金融(+20[5]%) 工业(+20[4]%) 材料(+18[9]%)[62] - 固定收益表现：欧洲高收益债(+19[5]%) 德国国债(+13[6]%) 英国国债(+11[5]%) 新兴市场主权债(+11[3]%)[62] 投资策略建议 - 做多泡沫标的：科技七巨头等集中度高的板块 历史显示泡沫期间科技板块6个月涨61% 其他板块均下跌[19][20] - 杠铃策略搭配困境价值：泡沫推动经济增长 利好廉价周期性价值股 如巴西(9倍PE) 英国(13倍PE) 全球能源(13倍PE)[20] - 做空泡沫企业债券：信用市场较股市提前反映资产负债表恶化 科技企业债券价格在1998-2000年间下跌13%[26] - 做空债券：过去300年14次资产泡沫中12次出现债券收益率上升 因资产通胀转为消费通胀引发政策利率上调[26] - 做多债券波动率/做空股票波动率：股市上涨伴随VIX走低 但收益率上升推高债券波动率[26]

投资评级与核心观点 - 报告对股票持等权重评级 对核心固定收益资产持超配评级 对其他固定收益资产持低配评级[4] - 核心观点认为宏观与市场表现脱节 风险资产受益于"不那么糟糕"的消息 国债因预期美联储降息而上涨 但估值过于乐观[3] - 建议在增长和关税风险中聚焦优质资产 偏好优质周期股和投资级信用债而非高收益债[4] 全球主要股市展望 - 美股偏好优质股、周期股和运营效率高的股票 标普500指数目标6500点 2025年EPS增长7%至259 2026年增长9%至283[6][7] - 欧股超配防御、银行、软件、电信和多元化金融板块 MSCI欧洲指数目标2250点 2025年EPS下降1%至138 2026年增长2.2%至141[6][7] - 日股偏好国内再通胀和公司改革受益股 及国防和经济安全相关支出企业 Topix指数目标2900点 2025年EPS增长1%至185 2026年增长8%至200[6][7] - 新兴市场超配金融和盈利能力领先企业 偏好国内业务而非出口和半导体硬件 MSCI EM指数目标1200点 2025年EPS增长6%至84 2026年增长10%至92[6][7] 宏观经济预测 - 全球GDP增长2025年2.6% 2026年3.1% 通胀2025年1.9% 2026年2.0%[10] - 美国GDP增长2025年1.1% 2026年1.3% 通胀2025年2.9% 2026年2.6%[10] - 欧元区GDP增长2025年1.0% 2026年1.1% 通胀2025年1.9% 2026年1.8%[10] - 日本GDP增长2025年0.4% 2026年0.7% 通胀2025年2.1% 2026年1.7%[10] - 新兴市场GDP增长2025年3.9% 2026年4.4% 通胀2025年1.5% 2026年1.9%[10] 央行政策预期 - 预计美联储本周降息25个基点 随后在1月前连续四次25基点降息 目标区间至3.375% 2026年4月和7月进一步降息至终端利率2.875%[2][20] - 预计欧洲央行12月和3月会议各降息25基点 终端利率1.5%[2][20] - 预计英国央行本周按兵不动 11月可能降息[20] - 预计日本央行不急于下次加息 维持政策不变[20] 固定收益与外汇展望 - 预计10年期美债收益率2025年底达4.00% 德债收益率至2.40% 英债收益率至4.35%[14][15] - 美元指数承压 预计跌至91 因美国利率和增长与 peers 趋同及风险溢价上升[14] - 欧元兑美元目标1.20 美元兑日元目标140 英镑兑美元目标1.40[15] 大宗商品展望 - 原油市场预计将出现大幅过剩 布伦特油价可能下跌但不低于60美元/桶[16] - 欧洲天然气价格近期区间波动 TTF短期预测35欧元/MWh[17] - 美元走弱对大宗商品有利 黄金有10%上行空间 铁 ore 上行空间有限[18] 信用市场展望 - 投资级信用债预计强劲总回报 杠杆融资投资者建议BB和CCC级债券的 barbell 策略[23] - 美国投资级信用债利差基案例90基点 高收益债335基点 杠杆贷款425基点[24]

US stock futures edged lower on Monday as traders caught their breath following a milestone week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) notch fresh all-time highs. Futures on the Dow (YM=F), the S&P 500 (ES=F), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were all about 0.3% lower. The slight pullback comes after a strong week across the board for stocks, following the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point cut to interest rates last week. The widely expected move — the Fed's first cut in ...

US stocks retreated on Monday as Wall Street looked ahead to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers and a key inflation print for clues to the chances of further US interest-rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slipped roughly 0.4%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) nudged down 0.2%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was about 0.1% lower, on the heels of a strong week for stocks as investors welcomed the Fed’s return to easing. Gold (GC=F) rose to a fresh all-time high on Monday, topping $3,75 ...

US stock futures retreated on Monday as Wall Street looked ahead to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers and a key inflation print for clues to the chances of further US interest-rate cuts. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped roughly 0.4%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) inched down 0.3%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also about 0.4% lower, on the heels of a strong week for stocks as investors welcomed the Fed’s return to easing. Gold (GC=F) rose to a fresh all-time high ...

US stocks turned higher on Monday as Wall Street kept up a record-setting streak on the back of Big Tech megacaps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) nudged up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way, rising 0.6% on the heels of a strong week for stocks as investors welcomed the Fed’s return to easing. Nvidia (NVDA) stock surged, back near an all-time high, as the company announced it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI in the comin ...

US stocks turned higher on Monday as Wall Street looked ahead to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers and a key inflation print for clues to the chances of further US interest rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was roughly flat, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose about 0.2% after the indexes opened in the red. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) added 0.3% on the heels of a strong week for stocks as investors welcomed the Fed’s return to easing. Gold (GC=F) rose to a fresh all-time high ...

US stock futures edged lower on Monday as traders caught their breath following a milestone week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) notch fresh all-time highs. Futures on the Dow (YM=F), the S&P 500 (ES=F), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were all about 0.4% lower. Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) rose to a new record high, topping $3,750 as investors bet that more interest-rate cuts are coming from the Federal Reserve. Stocks are on the retreat a strong week across the boar ...

US stock futures retreated on Monday as Wall Street looked ahead to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers and a key inflation print for clues to the chances of further US interest-rate cuts. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped roughly 0.4%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) inched down 0.3%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also about 0.3% lower, on the heels of a strong week for stocks as investors welcomed the Fed’s return to easing. Gold (GC=F) rose to a fresh all-time high ...

US stock futures retreated on Monday as Wall Street looked ahead to a parade of Federal Reserve speakers and a key inflation print for clues to the chances of further US interest-rate cuts. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped roughly 0.4%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) inched down 0.3%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also about 0.4% lower, on the heels of a strong week for stocks as investors welcomed the Fed’s return to easing. Gold (GC=F) rose to a fresh all-time high ...