公司/行业 * **公司**：摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 作为研究发布方，其经济学家团队（包括 Michael T Gapen, Sam D Coffin 等）对美联储政策进行解读 [3] * **行业**：研究内容聚焦于宏观经济、货币政策及美国联邦储备系统（美联储）的动向，这些是影响所有行业和金融市场的重要宏观因素 [1][3][4] 核心观点与论据 * 美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.0% - 4.25% [3][4] * 降息理由是基于对就业下行风险上升的判断，声明指出“就业增长已放缓”、失业率“略有上升”，且“就业下行风险有所增加”，此次降息反映了“风险平衡的转变” [3][4][8] * 最新的经济预测摘要（SEP）显示利率中值预测为今年还将有三次降息（总计75个基点），但内部存在分歧，投票结果为10比9，仅以一票优势维持此中值预测 [3][5] * 通胀预期被上调，2026年核心PCE通胀预测从2.4%上调至2.6%，预示着通胀将在更长时间内运行于2.0%的目标之上 [1][10] * 政策立场被解读为鸽派，因为美联储选择支持劳动力市场而容忍更高的通胀 [1][3] * 会议出现一位持不同意见者（Governor Miran），他倾向于本次会议降息50个基点，并且根据点阵图解读，他支持今年总计降息150个基点 [3][5] 其他重要内容 * 美联储对经济增长的预测小幅上调，2025年实际GDP（4Q/4Q）预测从1.4%上调至1.6%，2026年从1.6%上调至1.8% [10] * 对失业率的预测小幅下调，2026年失业率（4Q平均）预测从4.5%下调至4.4%，2027年从4.4%下调至4.3% [10] * 对未来利率路径的预测全面下调，2025年底联邦基金利率预测从3.9%下调至3.6%，2026年底从3.6%下调至3.4%，2027年底从3.4%下调至3.1% [10] * 与会者认为经济前景的不确定性普遍较高，并且对GDP增长的风险看法倾向于下行，而对失业率和通胀的风险看法则倾向于上行 [18][26][27]

September 17, 2025 08:27 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Press conference quick reaction: Toward a more neutral stance Although the Fed remains data dependent, we think it has begun a modest recalibration of its policy stance. Key Takeaways | M Press conference quick reaction: Although the Fed remains data dependent, we think it has begun | Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0571 +1 212 761-8573 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Stay right there because I will and we got a great great guest, a perfect guest actually to answer this because I'm going to say something too that that and and this is one of the reporters I can't remember who followed up with Jerome Pal and said you I'm confused. I was listening to Jerome Pal. I was a little confused.He didn't sound as focused as maybe I would have liked him to be. But doesn't matter what I think. Let's bring in Richard Fischer, former Dallas Federal Reserve president, also a CBC contribu ...

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images The Fed faces a challenge in addressing a scenario in which inflation remains high while the labor market weakens. Key Takeaways Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve is not guaranteed to repeat Wednesday's interest-rate cut. The Fed is caught between its missions to keep inflation low and employment high, and both are moving in the wrong direction. Powell said the Fed would cut rates further only if economic data indicated that was the right move, brushing of ...

My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen.At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interes ...

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up.Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower ou ...

Has there ever been an interest rate cut with such a long, dramatic, scrutinized gestation period? No matter, Wall Street is already thinking, what have you done for me lately? The Federal Reserve reconvenes today for what may just be the most loaded, and consequential, central bank meeting in modern history. A quarter-point slash is now all but certain to be announced tomorrow — and indeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted as much since the group’s last meeting in July. But is the seemingly never-end ...

美联储货币政策会议 - 预计美联储将在2025年首次降息25个基点 联邦公开市场委员会在2024年最后三次会议中已累计降息100个基点[1][3] - 存在扩大降息至50个基点的可能性 若实施将使利率水平降至3.75-4.00% 为近三年首次[3] - 降息政策主要通过降低抵押贷款利率支持住房行业 但对劳动力市场疲软的改善作用有限[3] 美联储决策背景 - 就业市场持续恶化 6月减少13K个工作岗位 月度就业增长低迷[2] - 通胀水平缓慢上升 主要受美国与贸易伙伴关税政策影响[2] - 美联储主席鲍威尔近期表态称就业数据问题已优先于通胀率考量[2] 政治因素影响 - 白宫解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克遭联邦法官禁令推翻 但政府仍在阻止其参与本次会议投票[4] - 库克此前投票记录与鲍威尔保持一致 支持维持利率稳定[4] - 参议院将就特朗普支持者斯蒂芬·米兰加入联邦公开市场委员会进行程序性投票 其曾主张降息300个基点[5] 内部政策分歧 - 7月会议出现数十年来首次多名投票委员异议 沃斯勒和鲍曼均主张降息25个基点[6] - 若库克被排除且米兰加入 可能导致美联储历史上最严重的内部分歧[6] 制造业数据表现 - 纽约州9月制造业指数跌至-8.7 远低于分析师预期的+4.5 较8月11.9大幅下滑[7] - 该地区过去12个月中有7个月出现负增长 费城联储制造业调查近5个月中也有4个月为负值[8]

Key Takeaways The Fed Is Widely Expected to Cut Rates 25 bpsPolitics Are Rife in the FOMC for the First TimeEmpire State Manufacturing Fell to Negative AgainMonday, September 15, 2025We have a busy week ahead of us in the stock market, though we already know the most consequential event awaiting market participants: Wednesday’s decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It is widely expected that the Fed will cut rates at this meeting for the first time in 2025; the FOMC ...

劳动力市场数据 - 8月消费者价格环比上涨0.4% 较7月0.2%的涨幅有所加速[1] - 周度失业救济金申领人数升至26.3万人 创近四年新高 较前值修正后的23.6万人增加2.7万人[1] - 就业数据修订显示2024年4月至2025年3月期间美国就业人数比最初报告减少91.1万人[5] 美联储政策预期 - 市场预期美联储将在9月政策会议上降息25个基点[3] - 投资者定价今年三次降息的概率达76% 因劳动力市场出现裂痕[4] - 经济学家认为降息将源于就业市场恶化而非通胀好转[3] 通胀形势评估 - 通胀仍处于高位且朝向错误方向发展[3] - 尽管存在粘性通胀压力 但就业市场放缓动态使美联储决策复杂化[2] - 经济学家指出当前数据不支持年底前必然实现三次降息的预期[4] 经济前景判断 - 就业市场放缓尚未导致经济硬着陆[5] - 当前经济环境被描述为美联储面临的最糟糕组合：就业恶化与通胀粘性并存[3] - 经济学家认为虽然形势可能恶化 但尚未达到崩溃临界点[5]