JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images Stagflation is one of the biggest risks staring down the Fed in 2026, Apollo's Torsten Sløk says. The scenario, often thought to be the worst-case for the economy, entails slow growth and elevated inflation. That risk is one of the biggest obstacles to the Fed cutting rates next year, in Sløk's view. A top economist is back with a stagflation warning. Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said he believes stagflation is still one of the ...

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) rose 0.88% to 6,834.50, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) gained 1.31% to 23,307.62 on tech strength, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDEX: ^DJI) added 0.38% to 48,134.89, all navigating volatile quad‑witching flows. Market movers AI‑linked and broader tech names led market gains today. Strength in Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) bouyed prices while consumer stocks lagged. Nike (NYSE:NKE) and Lamb Weston (NYSE:LW) slid on underwhelming ear ...

Let's continue the conversation right here with Toron Slack. He's chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Um, you have a favorite in that Fed race, by the way.Well, so I don't have a personal favorite, but I think it's clear that the market is trying to chew hard on which of these candidates will have implications for what's happening, especially of course in rates. What the conclusion of course here is that it all becomes about can the new fetcher persuade the other FOMC members about whatever his vie ...

The U.S. economy has been experiencing the peculiar dynamic of rising inflation and slowing job growth over the past year. While I haven't called this stagflation in the past, the phenomenon did create complexityAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than fr ...

Michael Burry, the ‘Big Short’ investor famed for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has issued a dire warning about the trajectory of the U.S. stock market. On Wednesday, Burry highlighted a rare shift in household wealth allocation—stocks overtaking real estate—suggesting it serves as a historic harbinger for a downturn that could last for years.The ‘Exhibit 12’ SignalTaking to X, Burry shared a chart titled “Exhibit 12,” sourced from Wells Fargo Securities and Bloomberg. The data tracks U.S. household ...

Diane, how would you describe uh this. Is it abnormal. Is it funky.Are we just in a waiting period of transition. What What do you say is going on here. >> Well, it certainly is an early chill for the holiday season, but I think you know consumers are still spending, which is ironic.The core retail sales, which goes into the GDP calculation for the retail sales data, actually was up 0.9%. So much better than that headline figure suggested. and data for September and August were revised up.So, we came into t ...

核心观点 - 在市场可能面临下行时，投资者为锁定利润并寻求防御，可关注历史衰退期间表现更具韧性的股息ETF，特别是消费必需品、医疗保健和通胀保值债券ETF [1] - 投资者目前过度集中于科技股，市场下行时可能出现板块轮动，过剩流动性可能流向防御性资产，使文中提及的ETF在未来衰退中表现更佳 [2] 消费必需品行业ETF (XLP) - 该ETF追踪标普500消费必需品精选行业指数，投资于销售食品、饮料、家居用品和个人护理产品等日常必需品的公司 [3] - 消费必需品需求稳定且缺乏弹性，在经济衰退期间，人们很少削减必需品开支，因此该ETF在低迷时期更为稳健 [4] - ETF共持有40只成分股，前三大持仓为沃尔玛(11.64%)、好市多(9.08%)和宝洁(7.67%)，股息收益率为2.66%，费率仅为0.08%（即每1万美元投资支付8美元） [5] 医疗保健行业ETF (XLV) - 该ETF为投资者提供了便捷投资美国医疗保健行业一篮子股票的方式，追踪标普500中的医疗保健精选行业指数，采用市值加权法 [6] - 医疗保健是“防御性”行业，因为对医疗、药品和治疗的需求在经济放缓期间不会大幅下降，且一些长期服用的成熟药物能为公司提供类似年金的稳定收入 [7] - 该ETF在2008年表现优于标普500指数且反弹更快，过去一年上涨12%，仅比SPY的涨幅低0.2%，若计入1.58%的股息收益率则表现更优，费率为0.08% [8] 通胀保值债券ETF (TIP) - 该ETF为投资者提供美国国债通胀保值证券的风险敞口，追踪ICE美国国债通胀挂钩债券指数，是对抗通胀侵蚀的有效对冲工具 [9] - 在经济下行，尤其是面临“滞胀”风险时，该ETF是优质资产，当前通胀虽已下降但前景不明，且利率下调与创纪录关税并存，通胀数据发布也存在延迟 [10] - ETF的股息收益率为3.29%，按月支付且随通胀波动，费率为0.18%（即每1万美元投资支付18美元） [10][11]

Hello and welcome to Market Domination Overtime. Investors on edge ahead of a big week of economic data. Jared Blickery has a look at the closing action on Wall Street.Jared. >> Yeah, thank you. Big week, but uh we're not seeing it in the majors just yet.So, the Dow kind of a lot of nothing today. You can see it's down a whopping 41 points or 9/10 or 9100s, excuse me, of 1%. NASDAQ though, I will say the tech sector saw some selling today.We saw some rotation in other sectors. We'll look at that in a minute ...

文章核心观点 - 2025年底前将发布多项因政府停摆而延迟的关键经济数据 这些数据可能对标准普尔500指数产生重大影响 市场与美联储在过去几个月因数据缺失而缺乏明确指引 [1][2][5] - 尽管股市年内已上涨超过17.5%并有望连续第三年走强 但投资者仍面临高通胀、经济衰退或滞胀等不确定性带来的压力 [3] - 市场反应将取决于数据是否支持美联储进一步降息 疲弱的劳动力市场和温和的通胀数据可能被视为利好 因为这为美联储继续降息提供了空间 [9][10] 关键经济数据发布日程与内容 - **12月16日（周二）**：发布10月和11月的合并非农就业报告 包含平均时薪增长和劳动参与率等重要数据 [7] - **12月16日至17日（周二至周三）**：发布零售销售数据 16日为月度零售销售先行报告 17日为更详细的完整报告 [7] - **12月18日（周四）**：发布11月消费者价格指数和当周初请失业金人数 由于政府停摆 将不发布10月CPI报告 [7] 各项数据的重要性与市场预期 - **非农就业数据**：反映劳动力市场状况 美联储曾因担忧劳动力市场而将利率从5.5%下调至4.75% 尽管通胀高于2%的目标 市场预计10月就业因政府停摆而疲软 11月有所反弹 失业率预计维持在4.4% [5][6] - **零售销售数据**：作为以消费为主导的经济体中需求的关键指标 由于假日购物和企业促销 年底几个月的零售销售通常较强 [8] - **消费者价格指数**：衡量一篮子消费品和服务的价格变化 是市场密切关注的核心通胀指标 目前预测CPI环比增长0.3% 同比增长3% [8] 市场潜在反应逻辑 - 投资者普遍希望美联储继续降息 若数据显示劳动力市场疲软且通胀温和 美联储更有可能降息 此类数据可能受到市场欢迎 [9] - 降息能刺激经济和就业市场 但风险是可能使经济过热并重新推高通胀 [9] - 美联储希望避免滞胀局面 即高通胀与高失业率并存 这会使政策制定陷入两难 [10] - 市场反应难以预测 例如 若就业数据远弱于预期 可能引发投资者对经济衰退的恐慌 [11]

关键利率水平 - 截至2025年12月12日，10年期美国国债收益率为4.19%，2年期为3.52%，30年期为4.85% [1] 收益率曲线倒挂作为衰退领先指标 - 收益率曲线倒挂指长期国债收益率低于短期国债收益率，其中10年期与2年期利差（10-2利差）被广泛视为可靠的衰退领先指标 [2] - 利差转负后至衰退开始的领先时间在18至92周之间不等 [2] - 历史数据显示，1998年曾出现一次未导致衰退的假信号，而2009年衰退前利差多次转负 [3] - 最近一次10-2利差持续为负的时期是从2022年7月5日至2024年8月26日，最后一次为负是在2024年9月5日 [3] - 若以首次利差转负日为起点，至衰退的平均领先时间为48周（约11个月）；若以衰退前最后一次利差为正日为起点，平均领先时间为18.5周（约4.25个月） [4] - 另一种观察视角是10年期与3个月期利差（10-3mo利差），其转负后至衰退的领先时间范围为34至69周 [5] - 10-3mo利差同样在1998年出现假信号，并在2009年衰退前多次转负 [5] - 最近一次10-3mo利差持续为负的时期是从2022年10月25日至2024年12月12日，自2025年2月26日以来在正负区间摆动 [5] - 对于10-3mo利差，以首次转负日为起点，至衰退的平均领先时间为48周（约11个月）；以利差转负后最后一次为正日为起点，平均领先时间为13周（约3个月） [6] 联邦基金利率与抵押贷款利率关系 - 联邦基金利率影响银行借贷成本，其上升通常导致抵押贷款利率上升，反之亦然 [7] - 然而近期出现背离情况，例如美联储于2024年9月开始降息周期时，抵押贷款利率却反向移动 [7] - 近期在美联储维持利率稳定的情况下，抵押贷款利率持续下降，根据房地美最新每周初级抵押贷款市场调查，30年期固定抵押贷款利率为6.22%，为一年多以来的最低水平之一 [7] 相关投资工具 - 与国债相关的ETF包括：Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL)、Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) 以及 Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]