However, the Ukrainian government’s debt continues to increase ( Figure 2 ). The IMF has revised its own debt projections up despite the successful 2024 restructuring of USD 20.5bn of Eurobond securities. Scope Ratings’ long-standing assumption of protracted conflict suggests the war might easily continue beyond mid-2026 – which is the IMF’s downside scenario for the conflict ending.A core IMF programme objective that public debt, excluding the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loans, would fall to 8 ...

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