As for boxed beef, these prices have always come with an asterisk given they are “reported” by USDA. Now we have an Ag Secretary whose job requirement is to act as a cheerleader for the US president and make sure everything he says regarding agriculture is proven correct. Recall the president said, on September 8, he would lower beef prices. Since Friday, September 5 (highlighted in orange), the choice beef market has been reported lower every, single, day with select has been down all but four days. Choice ...

18 Sep 2025 04:42:37 ET │ 17 pages E s s e n t i a l s | Global Commodities Time to revisit volatility carry strategies with the worst tariff and geopolitical shocks possibly behind us CITI'S TAKE In this note we highlight opportunities in commodities volatility carry QIS, as we believe the worst tariff and geopolitical shocks are possibly behind us and volatility premia should continue to recover amid market stabilization. We also provide an update on curve carry strategies which have performed well since ...

玉米市场 - 12月玉米期货(ZCZ25)早盘持平 隔夜交易区间为下跌1美分至上涨0.75美分 交易量仅12,000手[1] - 12月-3月期货价差覆盖56%理论全额商业持仓成本 与两周前持平 12月-7月远期曲线维持48%水平[1] - 全国玉米指数报3.78美元 单日上涨2.25美分 全国平均基差为较12月期货贴水41.75美分[1] 大豆市场 - 11月大豆期货(ZSX25)早盘下跌1.25美分 交易区间4.5美分 交易量10,500手[4] - 11月-1月期货价差覆盖69%理论全额商业持仓成本 接近8月初以来的看跌70%水平[4] - 全国大豆指数报9.5450美元 全国平均基差为较11月期货贴水79.0美分[4] 小麦市场 - 软红冬麦(SRW)12月至5月合约持平 隔夜总交易量约5,000手[5] - 12月-3月期货价差覆盖51%理论全额商业持仓成本 处于中性水平[5] - 硬红冬麦(HRW)前三个月合约均下跌0.75美分 总交易量不足2,500手[5] 市场预期 - 商业端已定价最悲观情景 期货价差趋于稳定[1][3] - 美国2025年玉米丰收预期已被市场消化[1] - 大豆商业端较去年同期更趋看空 去年同周期价差覆盖率为64%[4] 外部因素 - 美国农业部即将发布供需预估数据[2] - 联邦公开市场委员会会议预计宣布降息25个基点[2] - 生产者价格指数和消费者价格指数显示通胀信号不一[2]