25 September final Q2 GDP was positively surprising, one of the largest upward revisions to a final figure in recent years, and showing the strongest growth in nearly two years. This article summarises recent events affecting the dollar, primarily GDP, then looks briefly at the charts of EURUSD and GBPUSD. The upward revision to last quarter’s GDP seems to be particularly positive because it comes after a quarter of contraction and because the latest revision comes primarily from consumer spending: With ...

By Chibuike Oguh and Canan Sevgili NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar gained against peers including the yen, Swiss franc and euro on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone on further easing overnight. The dollar strengthened 0.54% to 0.795 against the Swiss franc, on track to snap two consecutive sessions of losses. The euro was lower against the dollar after German business morale fell unexpectedly in September. It was last down 0.69% at $1.1734 after ris ...

By Chibuike Oguh and Canan Sevgili NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar held steady against major peers on Tuesday as investors weighed commentary from Federal Reserve officials including Chair Jerome Powell, while the Swedish krona gained after the Riksbank delivered a hawkish 25-basis-point rate cut. The dollar was down 0.11% at 0.791 against the Swiss franc The euro was up slightly by 0.08% at $1.1812 while sterling was flat at $1.3517. Powell said the central bank needed to continue balancing ...

Worrisome housing and job markets suggest that the central bank should have cut interest rates more. ...

美联储降息与抵押贷款利率关系 - 美联储自去年以来首次降息25个基点 但抵押贷款利率未必持续下降[1][4] - 美联储预计今年还将进行两次降息 反映对就业市场担忧加剧[2] 抵押贷款利率近期走势 - 30年期抵押贷款利率上周降至6.35% 为近一年最低水平[2] - 去年美联储首次降息后 抵押贷款利率曾降至两年低点6.08%[3] - 去年尽管美联储又降息两次 抵押贷款利率仍上升至7%以上[4] 影响抵押贷款利率的因素 - 抵押贷款利率主要跟随10年期国债收益率走势[6] - 利率受美联储政策、债券市场对经济和通胀预期等多因素影响[5] - 10年期国债收益率自7月中旬以来普遍走低 因就业市场疲软[7] 通胀与利率政策关系 - 通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标水平[7] - 美联储降息可能刺激就业和经济 但也可能推高通胀[8] - 若9月通胀报告显示消费价格上涨 抵押贷款利率可能回升[5] 市场预期与现实差距 - 期货市场预计美联储将持续降息至2026年[9] - 美联储最新预测显示降息路径比市场预期更为保守[9] - 市场与美联储预期差异意味着抵押贷款利率仍存上行风险[10] 住房市场现状 - 夏季末抵押贷款利率回落给自2022年陷入低迷的住房市场带来积极信号[11] - 去年成屋销售降至近30年最低水平 今年仍保持疲软[11] - 全国房价自本十年初以来上涨约50% 尽管增速放缓[12] 利率对购房者影响 - 较低利率可提升购房者购买力 但当前利率水平仍使多数美国人难以负担[12] - 利率需进一步下降且房价增长大幅放缓才能改善 affordability[13] - 更多买家入市可能加剧市场竞争 削弱卖家议价能力[13] 利率预测与建议 - 经济学家预计年底30年期抵押贷款利率将在6.3%-6.4%区间 不会跌破6%[10] - 预测利率变化难度大 因众多变量会影响其轨迹[14] - 有能力以当前利率购房者若找到合适物业 不宜等待市场时机[14] 再融资活动 - 近期再融资申请大幅增加 因房主抓住利率下降机会[14] - 再融资时建议考虑能否降低当前利率至少1个百分点以抵消相关费用[15]

Lauren Petracca / Bloomberg via Getty Images The job market may be deteriorating. Key Takeaways The job market may be at greater risk of faltering than widely thought, according to a recent analysis. Economists at UBS argued that many employers are laying off workers at average or elevated rates, contrary to prevailing descriptions of the job market as having low hiring and low firing. Tariffs have damaged the job market, leading companies to hire fewer people and in some cases lay off their current ...

通胀数据与美联储政策预期 - 2.9%的CPI同比增幅高于美联储2%的通胀目标约0.5个百分点[2] - 若CPI数据低于预期（如环比0.2%），可能推动美联储考虑50个基点降息[6][7] - 关税政策与移民政策可能导致通胀持续加速[3] 劳动力市场与经济状况 - 就业增长陷入停滞且出现负值数据[4][10] - 经济衰退可能性因就业市场疲软而上升[10] - 美联储高度重视避免经济衰退以维持政策独立性[10] 债券市场与利率路径 - 2年期国债收益率现为3.5%[9] - 债券收益率下行反映市场对美联储降息的预期[8][9] - 联邦基金利率均衡水平预计在2.5%-3%区间[12][13] 市场预期与政策展望 - 市场已定价6次降息直至2026年末[11] - 联邦基金利率目标区间或从4.25%-4.5%降至均衡水平[12][13] - 25个基点降息已被市场充分定价 50个基点降息存在可能性[5][6][11]

消费者行为趋势 - 消费者持续面临通胀压力和就业市场担忧 [1] - 经济不确定性环境下自有品牌通常出现短期需求上升现象 [1] 行业竞争格局 - 所处行业存在大量自有品牌且长期处于衰退趋势 [1] - 行业类别具有独特性 [1]