涉及的行业与公司 * 行业为中国血管介入市场 重点关注血管介入耗材 包括冠脉介入和外周介入手术[1] * 涉及的公司包括跨国企业泰尔茂 波士顿科学 雅培 以及国内企业归创通桥等[3][14] 手术量增长与耗材使用趋势 * 中国经皮冠状动脉介入治疗手术量在2024年达到170万例 近年复合年增长率约为6-7%[2][9] * 外周介入手术量增长更快 当前规模为PCI手术量的25-33% 而2016年仅为10-20%[2][9] * 专家预计未来1-2年PCI手术量将以高个位数增长 而未来2-3年外周介入手术量增速将达到十几到二十[2][11] * 带量采购后 每台手术使用的球囊平均数量从三年前的1.0个增加到去年的1.5个 且这一上升趋势预计将持续[2][12] * 对于导丝和鞘管等通路产品 市场扩张主要由产品升级驱动 例如从普通导丝转向亲水/疏水导丝 从普通鞘管转向专用鞘管和薄壁鞘管[13] 竞争格局与进口替代 * 进口替代持续进行但短期空间有限 跨国公司在导丝领域的销量份额从之前的60-70%降至目前的50%以上[3][14] * 具体市场份额 泰尔茂 波士顿科学 雅培 归创通桥的导丝份额分别为23-25% 15-20% 10% 10-20% 其他国内公司合计占25-30%[3][14] * 泰尔茂在专用鞘管领域是领导者 销量份额超过40% 此前为60-70%[3][15] * 国内外产品的终端价格差距较小 国产导丝和鞘管仅比跨国公司的同类产品低10-20%[3][16] * 专家预计跨国公司份额将逐步下降 但短期内竞争格局不会发生剧烈变化 主要因产品竞争力存在差异[3][17] 带量采购覆盖与价格影响 * 冠脉和外周通路产品的带量采购覆盖率已经很高 进一步提升空间有限[4][18] * 血管介入产品的带量采购降价幅度通常较深 原因包括竞争相对激烈 消耗医保基金金额较大 以及民众对其价格较为关注[4][19] * 诊断相关分组支付方式对手术量的影响在一两年前较大 但随着带量采购降价 其影响已减小 例如高压球囊/外周药物球囊价格从带量采购前的3000多元人民币/16000-17000元人民币降至带量采购后的600多元人民币/2000-3000元人民币[10] 其他重要内容 * 政策变化 特别是基本医疗保险报销政策的调整 是影响未来手术量增长的关键不确定性因素[2][11] * 专家指出归创通桥作为国内供应商具有产品线齐全 产品竞争力相对较强 全国网络覆盖和快速客户服务等优势[3][14] * 产品制造和设计的一致性 以及与其他市场主流产品的兼容性是区分国内外公司产品竞争力的关键因素[15][17]

新税收政策 - 俄罗斯计划对主要进口的消费电子产品征收新税，预计在未来三年内筹集27亿美元用于支持国内电子产业，包括国防领域 [1] - 新税收将于2026年9月生效，将首先针对进口智能手机和笔记本电脑，随后扩展至其进口组件 [3][4] - 税收清单尚未最终确定和公布 [3] 行业背景与战略重要性 - 因制裁导致俄罗斯无法获得西方芯片及其他关键硬件，国内生产商难以满足国防领域对无人机等先进武器硬件的需求 [1] - 现代电子硬件的缺乏阻碍了俄罗斯在人工智能发展领域与美国、中国等国保持竞争力 [2] - 政府将电子产业视为战略部门，进口替代对于确保国家国防能力至关重要 [3][4] 财政背景与其他措施 - 新税收是2026年为平衡高额军费开支和能源收入下降导致的预算赤字而采取的措施之一 [2] - 其他措施包括提高增值税（VAT）以及对小企业增税 [2] - 税收收入将拨付给专门用于支持国内生产商的特别基金 [4]

中国心脏电生理行业专家电话会议纪要关键要点 涉及的行业与公司 * 会议主题为中国心脏电生理市场 特别是针对房颤手术的脉冲场消融技术[2] * 涉及的关键跨国公司包括强生 雅培 波士顿科学[4] * 涉及的关键中国本土公司包括微创电生理 惠泰医疗 锦江 迪诺医疗[4] 市场容量与增长趋势 * 中国心脏电生理手术总量从2023年的38万-39万例 增长至2024年的40万-42万例 预计2025年将达到47万-48万例[3][9] * 其中房颤手术量从2023年的18万例 增长至2024年的21万例 预计2025年将达到25万例[3][9] * 专家预计房颤手术量的增速将显著超过其他电生理手术 主要驱动因素包括人口老龄化 DRG医保支付改革 PFA产品日益普及以及患者支付能力提升[3][9] * 中国约有3000家医院可进行电生理手术 覆盖大部分三甲医院 约有3000-3500名具备手术资质的医生[12] 技术路径与市场份额演变 * 在房颤手术中 PFA病例数快速上升 从2024年的1.5万例增至2025年预计的3万-3.5万例 而冷冻消融病例数在2023-2024年维持在约5000例 其余为RFA病例[3][10] * 专家认为PFA未来可能显著侵蚀冷冻消融的市场份额 预计中国市场进入稳态后 PFA和RFA的手术量份额可能分别达到约35%和60%-70%[3][11] * RFA市场由跨国公司主导 强生和雅培按手术量计算的市场份额分别为60%-70%和25%-30% 本土公司如微创电生理和惠泰医疗共占约10%份额[4][13] * PFA市场中 按手术量计算 波士顿科学 惠泰医疗 迪诺医疗的市场份额分别为40%-50% 20%-30% 20%-30% 但由于价格显著高于本土公司 波士顿科学按收入计算的市场份额远超50%[4][14] 竞争格局与产品竞争力 * 导管设计方面 专家认为球形或篮状设计的导管消融效果更佳 本土公司若能采用此类设计且不侵犯专利 临床效果亦可表现良好[4][15] * 3D标测系统方面 本土公司与海外公司仍存在差距 尤其在图形精度和稳定性上 强生的CARTO系统被专家认为是最佳系统之一 但差距可随产品迭代缩小[4][16] * 本土公司中 惠泰医疗的标测系统被认为最佳 其次是微创电生理和锦江[4][16] * PFA设备当前在中国市场竞争激烈 厂商以较低价格向医院销售设备 旨在未来带动导管销售 许多医院采取双品牌策略 同时使用海外和本土品牌[4][17] * 专家预计未来RFA市场仍将由强生主导 海外公司可能保持85%-90%的手术量份额 但整体电生理市场 本土公司份额在未来3-5年可能达到30%-40% 若技术取得进一步突破 甚至可能达到60%-70%[18][19] 海外扩张潜力与风险 * 本土公司中 惠泰医疗和微创电生理在海外扩张方面具备一定优势 微创电生理可借助微创科学院的海外销售渠道和供应商网络 惠泰医疗可通过与迈瑞医疗合作扩大业务范围[5][20] * 无论进入发达市场还是新兴市场 海外产品注册均需要资金 时间以及对注册流程的熟悉度 因此与当地分销商或平台合作至关重要[5][20] * 行业风险包括医疗器械集采带来的降价幅度超预期且份额增益不及预期 设备更新需求弱于预期 反腐败行动的冲击大于预期 地缘政治风险影响供应链 以及产品研发和技术突破慢于预期[21]

**涉及的公司和行业** * 公司：生益科技 (Shengyi Technology, 600183.SS) [1][19] * 行业：覆铜板 (CCL) 和印刷电路板 (PCB) 供应链，特别是面向人工智能 (AI) 应用的高频高速覆铜板 [3][19][20] **核心观点和论据** * **财务业绩超预期并上调目标价** * 公司前三季度营收增长39.8% 至 206亿元，归属母公司净利润增长78.0% 至 24.43亿元，均超预期 [1] * 基于业绩表现，将2025-27年盈利预测上调11-14%，目标价从60元上调至83元，对应预期股价回报率23.2% [1][5] * 新的目标价估值基于市盈率+4倍标准差，高于2020年峰值时的+3倍标准差，反映当前由AI应用驱动的周期比重高于由新冠疫情供应链中断驱动的周期 [1] * **产品结构向AI升级是第三季度关键驱动力** * 第三季度营收增长55%，净利润增长131%，增速显著高于第一和第二季度，主要得益于AI渗透率提升和2024年下半年低基数效应 [3] * 管理层预计第四季度高增长将持续，因AI渗透率更高及低基数效应 [3] * 管理层看好第四季度订单势头，超过其全部产能，因此有更多空间将产品组合从家电、智能手机和消费电子等非AI下游领域升级至AI导向产品 [3] * 预计2026年盈利上调周期将持续，原因可能是毛利率超预期 [1][3] * **AI相关产品进展与未来驱动因素** * 公司预计到2025年底，纯AI导向的高速覆铜板月发货量将达到约80万张，占其总月产能800多万张的约10% [3] * 下一阶段的驱动因素包括GB300、Rubin平台以及AWS、META等ASIC的认证 [9] * 公司第三季度大部分AI覆铜板发货与英伟达GB200相关，GB300服务器用量目前远少于GB200，预计GB300覆铜板产品发货量可能从第四季度开始提升 [9] * 公司已交付用于Rubin服务器M9 PCB的覆铜板样品，正处于产品认证阶段 [9] * 公司认为，尽管较当前主要外国竞争对手是英伟达覆铜板供应链的后来者，但其主要致力于为英伟达的新产品工作，高质量、可靠的服务和规模化运营仍是赢得大额订单的关键 [9] * 公司很可能获得ASIC认证，这被认为是2026年的另一个关键驱动因素 [9] * **产能扩张计划** * 江西新厂月产能150万张，将于第四季度投产 [4] * 泰国新厂月产能70万张，将于2026年第一季度启动，主要专注于汽车、数据中心服务器和基板 [4] * **估值与风险** * 估值基于2026年预期市盈率44倍，高于同行平均水平，理由包括公司在全球覆铜板市场份额从2007年的8%提升至2024年的13%、技术优势（首批进入英伟达AI供应链的中国覆铜板厂商）、以及国内零部件采购溢价上升 [21] * 主要下行风险包括AI覆铜板订单需求不及预期、中国消费疲软、5G/IoT产品资本支出超预期恶化 [22] * 主要上行风险包括获得基于ASIC的客户覆铜板订单、中国宏观经济状况好于预期、因高运营杠杆带来收入增长导致营业利润率好于预期、AI需求和消费补贴强于预期 [22] **其他重要内容** * **公司背景**：生益科技于1998年在上交所上市，目前是全球第二大覆铜板制造商，市场份额为13%，同时也是5G和物联网领域高频覆铜板的领先供应商 [19] * **花旗工业考察**：计划于11月18-20日举行，包括11月19日对生益科技工厂的参观 [2]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>ab 25 September 2025 China Medtech Expert call takeaways: Pulse check on China's IVD market China IVD market update for Q325 We hosted an expert call with Mr. Fang, an in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) distributor with over 15 years of industry experience. The key topics included: 1) market size, test volume, channel inventory and the competitive landscape in Q325; 2) the implementation status and impact of existing policies in relation to test volume and test fee/reagent prices; and 3) the expert's estimates of market growth and potential competitive dynamics in Q425/2026.</doc> <doc id='2'>Q325 results likely to diverge across test types According to the expert, the market growth in regions under his analysis was as follows: 1) Chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA): -17% YoY in test volume and -25% YoY in revenue. Volume declined QoQ, with a negative impact from panel test unbundling policies. On a monthly basis, the expert noted stabilisation of test volume in September 2025 following declines in July-August. 2) Clinical chemistry: -8% YoY in volume and revenue. Similar to CLIA, the QoQ volume decline for clinical chemistry tests was mainly reflected in July-August 2025. 3) Haematology: +8% YoY in volume and +6% YoY in revenue. The QoQ volume decline was less than 2%, primarily attributable to an off- season for physical examinations. 4) Haemostasis: +3% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ. 5) Point of care tests (POCT): -12% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ.</doc> <doc id='3'>Channel destocking close to an end; import substitution status varies by test With respect to channel inventory, the expert highlighted the following: 1) CLIA: For global brands, channel inventory is equivalent to 10-12 weeks of sales. For local brands, it is equivalent to 8-10 weeks of sales. 2) Haematology: Leading players had channel inventory equivalent to ~6 months of sales last year and have had channel destocking YTD. In terms of import substitution, the expert noted the following: 1) CLIA: Import substitution was accelerated by volume-based procurement (VBP) in Q325, with domestic brands more accepted by grade A tertiary hospitals; the trend is likely to extend into Q425-2026. 2) Clinical chemistry: A stable competitive landscape, with domestic brands commanding a large share. 3) Haematology: Import substitution in lower-tier markets and even some top-tier hospitals; the expert expects the trend to be sustained in Q425-2026. 4) Haemostasis: Ongoing import substitution but at a relatively slow pace.</doc> <doc id='4'>The expert estimates market growth in 2026 for major tests, except CLIA Overall, the expert expects sector-wide test volume to bottom out in Q425, with the negative impact of the test unbundling policy largely reflected. In terms of the 2026 outlook, he thinks major test categories are likely to grow YoY, except for CLIA, for which revenue may continue to decline YoY, given a relatively high base for reagent prices. According to the expert: 1) CLIA: The market size could shrink 10%+ YoY as new prices for tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents are implemented in Q425. The inflection point is most likely to occur in Q426, but it could be as early as Q326. 2) Clinical chemistry: The expert expects market growth below 5% in 2026. 3) Haematology: There is high growth visibility, with a relatively low likelihood of VBP; the expert expects c10% growth in 2026. 4) Haemostasis: The expert thinks this category has a relatively high possibility of VBP. That said, 10% market growth in 2026 could be feasible without VBP.</doc> <doc id='5'>Equities China Healthcare Jun Deng Analyst jun.deng@ubs.com +852-3712 2103 Emma Ma, CFA Associate S1460124070003 emma-mc.ma@ubs.com +86-21-3866 8981 Chen Chen, PhD Analyst chen-zb.chen@ubs.com +86-10-5832 8201 This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 6. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.</doc> <doc id='6'>Expert call key takeaways We hosted an expert call with Mr. Fang, an IVD distributor with over 15 years of industry experience. Below, we present highlights from the meeting. We have made edits for clarity; minor grammatical changes that do not impact the meaning of content have been applied. The opinions expressed by the expert herein do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly for any loss or damage arising out of the use of this information or any part thereof.</doc> <doc id='7'>1. What do you see for China's IVD market growth by revenue and test volume in Q325? According to the expert, the market growth in regions under his analysis was as follows: 1) Chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA): -17% YoY in test volume and -25% YoY in revenue. Volume declined QoQ, with a negative impact from panel test unbundling policies. On a monthly basis, the expert noted stabilisation of test volume in September 2025 following declines in July-August. 2) Clinical chemistry: -8% YoY in volume and revenue. Similar to CLIA, the QoQ volume decline for clinical chemistry tests was mainly reflected in July-August 2025. 3) Haematology: +8% YoY in volume and +6% YoY in revenue. The QoQ volume decline was less than 2%, primarily attributable to an off- season for physical examinations. 4) Haemostasis: +3% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ. 5) Point of care tests (POCT): -12% YoY in volume and revenue. Test volume was largely flat QoQ.</doc> <doc id='8'>2. For the haematology business, why did the top two players have notable revenue declines in Q225? In Q225, Mindray and Sysmex had notable revenue declines YoY for the haematology business. This was the opposite of the market expansion observed by the expert. For example, Dymind, the third-largest player in the market, had 10%+ growth in volume and revenue in the first nine months of 2025. In addition, Maccura, another key player, saw single-digit growth in H125.</doc> <doc id='9'>As per the expert, Sysmex's revenue decline in Q225 may be attributable to import substitution and channel destocking. For Mindray, potential reasons for the revenue decline in the quarter include channel destocking and a high revenue base last year.</doc> <doc id='10'>3. What is the level of channel inventory for reagents across test categories? Will channel destocking continue to pressure companies' revenue growth in the near future? At the sector level, the expert estimates channel inventory as of Q325 to be as follows: 1) CLIA: For global brands, channel inventory is equivalent to 10-12 weeks of sales. For local brands, it is equivalent to 8-10 weeks of sales. 2) Clinical chemistry: Not much change in Q325. 3) Haematology: Leading players had channel inventory equivalent to ~6 months of sales last year and have had channel destocking YTD. The expert believes channel destocking may be close to an end for Mindray's haematology business. Heading into Q425, the expert expects a limited impact from channel destocking for leading domestic companies such as Mindray, with relatively low channel inventory in haematology, CLIA and clinical chemistry.</doc> <doc id='11'>4. What is the potential market growth across test categories in Q425-2026? Overall, the expert expects sector-wide test volume to bottom out in Q425, with the negative impact of the test unbundling policy largely reflected.</doc> <doc id='12'>In terms of the 2026 outlook, he thinks major test categories are likely to grow YoY, except for CLIA, for which revenue may continue to decline YoY, given a relatively high base for reagent prices. According to the expert: 1) CLIA: The market size could shrink 10%+ YoY as new prices for tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents are implemented in Q425. The inflection point is most likely to occur in Q426, but it could</doc> <doc id='13'>be as early as Q326. 2) Clinical chemistry: The expert expects market growth below 5% in 2026. 3) Haematology: There is high growth visibility , with a relatively low likelihood of VBP; the expert expects c10% growth in 2026. 4) Haemostasis: The expert thinks this category has a relatively high possibility of VBP. That said, 10% market growth in 2026 could be feasible without VBP.</doc> <doc id='14'>5. What are the current status and potential outlook of import substitution across test categories? 1) CLIA: Import substitution was accelerated by VBP in Q325, with domestic brands more accepted by grade A tertiary hospitals; the trend is likely to extend into Q425- 2026. 2) Clinical chemistry: A stable competitive landscape, with domestic brands commanding a large share. 3) Haematology: Import substitution for local brands, such as Mindray, Dymind and Urit, in some top-tier hospitals, as well as continued import substitution in lower-tier markets; the expert expects the trend to be sustained in Q425- 2026. 4) Haemostasis: Ongoing import substitution but at a relatively slow pace.</doc> <doc id='15'>For Mindray specifically, the expert sees market share gain potential across test types. For example, he believes it could be feasible to gain 2% share annually in CLIA market in the next three years. That said, the potential market share gain in haematology could be modest, given its high market share.</doc> <doc id='16'>6. What will be the actual impact of test volume-related policies in Q325? When do you expect these policies' impact to fade? Can any potential new policies further erode test volume? According to the expert, the test unbundling policy could lead ~15%/~5% volume declines YoY for CLIA/clinical chemistry in Q325. In contrast, the expert thinks there will be a limited impact for haematology and haemostasis. The expert expects the policy impact to fade in Q425, as test unbundling may be largely completed by September 2025. In addition, a few regions had rebundling for some panel tests that were previously unbundled.</doc> <doc id='17'>Beyond test unbundling, the expert foresees a very limited additional impact from DRG implementation and mutual recognition of test results. Moreover, he does not think there will be more new policies to further erode test volume at the sector level.</doc> <doc id='18'>7. For the VBP of tumour biomarkers and thyroid function reagents, what are the likely implementation timeline and ex-factory price cuts? The expert expects this round of VBP to be implemented starting in October 2025 and to cover most of the participating provinces by December 2025. The ex-factory price adjustment has not been completed yet, although a few companies have adjusted thyroid function reagent prices following the previous VBP in Gansu.</doc> <doc id='19'>On the magnitude of ex-factory price cuts, the expert thinks domestic companies may have 20%+ cuts for tumour markers and 10%+ cuts for thyroid function reagents. For overseas companies, the expert expects further price erosion for tumour biomarkers reagents on top of the price revisions following the previous testing fee correction. For thyroid function reagents, the ex-factory price cuts could reach c30%.</doc> <doc id='20'>8. Which reagents are likely to be covered by the next round of VBP? What is the potential timeline? The expert reiterated his view that CLIA will be the priority for VBP in 2026. Implementation is likely to start in 2027, although the impact could be limited, as major test items under CLIA have been covered by VBP. In addition to CLIA, the expert now thinks the VBP of haemostasis tests may take place in 2026 or 2027. Similar to CLIA, it may take about one year from the result announcement to official implementation for haemostasis VBP, in the expert's view.</doc> <doc id='21'>9. What is the potential impact of Hunan Province's recent test-fee correction for drug-resistant tuberculosis molecular testing? Which tests may be subject to a test-fee correction going forward? The expert expects a limited impact from this initiative, considering the small market size of tuberculosis-related tests in China (Rmb300m+ in total, with the market size of drug- resistant tuberculosis tests amounting to Rmb100m+). Overseas companies such as Cepheid (a member of Danaher Group) and domestic companies such as Zeesan, Ustar and Wantai may have some impact, as per the expert.</doc> <doc id='22'>The expert noted that tests with particularly high fees will be the focus of the upcoming testing fee correction. Thus, the main focus could be CLIA, such as tumour biomarkers, infectious diseases, thyroid functions and myocarditis tests.</doc> <doc id='23'>Valuation Method and Risk Statement We believe the risks facing China's medtech industry include: 1) larger-than-expected price reductions and smaller-than-expected market share gains from medical device VBP programs; 2) weaker-than-expected demand from equipment renewal programs; 3) a greater-than- expected impact from the anti-corruption drive; 4) geopolitical risks affecting the supply chain of medical device products; and 5) slower-than-expected product R&D and technological breakthroughs.</doc> <doc id='24'>Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".</doc> <doc id='25'>For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 25 September 2025 03:15 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. 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**关键要点总结** **1 公司及行业概述** - **公司**：Richful (300910.SZ)，中国领先的润滑油添加剂生产商，产品广泛应用于汽车和工业领域[30] - **行业**：润滑油添加剂行业，中国在该领域仍依赖进口，尤其是美国[30] --- **2 核心观点与论据** **2.1 2Q25业绩预览** - **收入**：预计同比增长10%（环比增长2%），主要因中东地区收入确认延迟（受伊朗与以色列紧张局势影响，霍尔木兹海峡贸易中断）[1][2][15] - 中东地区占2024/1Q25出口价值的15%/17%[2] - 延迟的中东收入（约2000-3000万人民币净利润影响）预计将在3Q25确认[16] - **利润**：预计净利润同比增长16%至1.93亿人民币，受益于原材料（原油）价格下跌（同比-21%，环比-11%）带来的毛利率提升（同比+1.5pp，环比+2.1pp）[15] - **区域表现**： - **国内销售**：强劲，因进口替代持续（中国润滑油添加剂进口价值同比-7%，北美和欧洲进口下滑显著）[2][19] - **出口**：整体同比-1%，中东同比-20%，但独联体（CIS）地区同比+3%，显示此前过高的CIS出口依赖已正常化[2][25] **2.2 长期增长驱动** - **国内市场**：预计公司在中国市场份额将从2024年的5.6%提升至2027年的13.5%，国内收入复合年增长率（CAGR）达35%[30] - **海外市场**：预计2025-27年出口收入CAGR为20%（vs 2022-24年的-3%），目标市场份额提升至7.5%[30] - **利润率**：原油价格下行带来成本端利好，预计2027年EBITDA利润率达30%[30][31] **2.3 估值与评级** - **目标价**：74.00人民币（原73.00人民币），基于13.5倍2027年EV/EBITDA（较全球同行10年中值溢价10%），折现至2026年中，WACC 8.3%[31] - **评级**：维持“买入”，12个月上行空间30.3%[1][16] --- **3 其他重要信息** - **风险因素**： 1. 全球电动车普及超预期[33] 2. 工业产出增长不及预期[33] 3. 原油价格意外上涨[33] 4. 海外市场API认证及客户拓展延迟[33] 5. 中国进口替代进度放缓[33] 6. 非美国家对华加征关税[33] - **财务数据**： - 2025-27年收入预测：39.5亿/49.1亿/60.4亿人民币[4] - 2025-27年EPS预测：2.98/3.84/4.78人民币[4] --- **4 数据与图表支持** - **图表1**：公司收入与出口趋势指标高度相关（相关系数0.97）[17][18][20] - **图表2**：中国润滑油添加剂进口区域变化（2Q25 vs 2Q24）[19][22][23] - 北美/欧洲进口同比-89%/-58%，亚太（新加坡）持平 - **图表3**：河南（Richful总部所在地）出口区域变化[25][26] - 中东出口同比-57%，独联体（CIS）同比+48% - **图表4**：原油价格趋势（2Q25同比-21%）[27][28]

报告行业投资评级 报告未明确提及行业投资评级相关内容 报告的核心观点 - 2Q25市场“回调”已过最坏点 互联网是“逢低买入”首选 建议关注有政策选择权的高收益板块 若中美谈判进展顺利 IT/医疗保健进口替代代理可能获利回吐 CSI - 1000可能跑输CSI300 [11] - 上周IT和医疗保健板块领涨 防御性的必需消费品和周期性的能源板块表现落后 资金流向方面 离岸市场比在岸市场更积极 [12] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 市场与板块表现 - MXCN各板块表现不一 信息技术、医疗保健等板块周涨幅居前 能源、公用事业等板块表现不佳 MSCI中国指数周涨幅3.3%（美元计价为3.4%） 年初至今涨幅9.0%（美元计价为9.2%） [6][7] - 与其他市场相比 MXCN相对MSCI新兴市场、纳斯达克等表现较弱 但相对MSCI亚洲（除日本）、MSCI印度等表现较好 [8] 催化剂日历 - 列出未来一个月中国宏观、中国行业、全球宏观和区域宏观的重要事件时间 如4月30日中国公布PMI和召开政治局会议 美国公布PMI等 [14] 共识宏观预测 - 对美国、中国、欧盟、日本等国家和地区2025年各季度GDP、CPI、货币、商品和债券收益率等进行预测 如中国2025年GDP增速预测为一季度5.1% 二季度4.6% 三季度4.1% 四季度3.9% [16] 中国QMI与指数目标 - MSCI中国2025年目标指数 基础情景为80 牛市情景为89 熊市情景为70 隐含涨幅分别为13%、26%、 - 1% [18] - CSI - 300 2025年目标指数 基础情景为4150 牛市情景为4420 熊市情景为3800 隐含涨幅分别为10%、17%、0% [19] 香港QMI与指数目标 - MSCI香港2025年目标指数 基础情景为11600 牛市情景为12400 熊市情景为10300 隐含涨幅分别为9%、16%、 - 3% [27] 投资建议 - 不同时间段对MXCN和MXHK各板块给出不同评级建议 如2Q25将MXCN的非必需消费品和医疗保健板块评级上调至超配 工业板块下调至中性 [37][39] 房地产周期 - 展示了一线城市、二线和三线城市住宅物业的销售趋势和价格指数变化情况 [42][43][45] 交易统计 - 呈现了在岸和香港股票市场的交易统计数据 包括A股成交量、融资买入、相对强弱指数等 [50][59][68] 资金流向与仓位 - 资金流向方面 离岸市场比在岸市场更积极 截至4月18日当周 中国股票录得7.96亿美元净流出 但上周五结束的一周 摩根大通跟踪的87只美国/香港上市中国股票ETF转为净流入7.25亿美元 [79][80][86] - 主动全球股票基金和主动亚洲（除日本）/新兴市场股票基金对中国股票的低配可能自1月以来有所收窄 [97] 盈利周期 - 对比了MXCN各板块在亚太地区的EPS增长和预测调整情况 如2025年信息技术板块EPS增长预计为53.5% [103][105] 估值 - 分析了MXCN和CSI300的远期市盈率 以及MXCN各板块在亚太地区的估值情况 并与10年平均水平进行了z - 分数对比 [130][133] 附录 - 列出了自2024年10月以来的中国/香港股票策略报告 包括报告名称和日期 [166]