The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of 'stagflation' (economic stagnation coupled with inflation) Inverted ...

Key Points Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the Fed's decision a "risk management cut" in case the economy suddenly slows significantly. The stock market has been banking on interest rate cuts for months now, pushing up the broader S&P 500 index. Interestingly, the Federal Open Market Committee's dot plot left many investors scratching their heads. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the Federal Reserve's benchmark federal fu ...

美国国债收益率曲线 - 截至2025年9月19日 10年期国债收益率为4.14% 2年期为3.57% 30年期为4.75% [1] - 收益率曲线倒挂现象指长期收益率低于短期收益率 其中10-2利差被广泛视为经济衰退的可靠领先指标 [2] - 10-2利差从2022年7月5日至2024年8月26日持续为负 最近一次负值出现在2024年9月5日 [3] - 基于首次负利差时点 经济衰退平均领先时间为48周 基于末次正利差时点则平均为18.5周 [4] 不同期限利差表现 - 10年期与3个月期利差在2022年10月25日至2024年12月12日期间为负 自2025年2月26日起在正负区间波动 [5] - 10-3个月利差倒挂后经济衰退领先时间介于34至69周 平均领先时间为48周 [6] - 两种利差指标均出现1998年假阳性信号 且在2009年衰退前多次出现负值 [2][5] 抵押贷款利率与联邦基金利率关联 - 联邦基金利率上升通常推高抵押贷款利率 但2024年9月美联储降息周期启动时出现反向走势 [7] - 当前30年期固定抵押贷款利率为6.35% 创2024年10月以来新低 该下降趋势发生在美联储维持利率稳定期间 [7] 市场影响因素与投资工具 - 美联储政策对市场行为产生重大影响 特别通过干预措施影响10年期国债与标普500指数关联 [8] - 国债相关ETF包括Vanguard 0-3个月国债ETF(VBIL) Vanguard中期国债ETF(VGIT)及Vanguard长期国债ETF(VGLT) [9]

抵押贷款利率变动 - 30年期抵押贷款利率为6.16% 较上周五下降12个基点 15年期固定利率下降3个基点至5.46% [1] - 抵押贷款利率在美联储预期降息前持续走低 市场预测明日联邦基金利率削减概率达96% [13][14] 不同类型抵押贷款产品利率 - 30年期固定利率购房贷款为6.16% 再融资贷款为6.20% 20年期固定利率为5.68% 15年期固定利率为5.46% [4][15] - 可调整利率抵押贷款中 5/1 ARM利率为6.65% 7/1 ARM利率为6.58% VA贷款30年期利率为5.78% 15年期为5.29% [4] - 再融资利率通常高于购房利率 全国平均值四舍五入至最近百分位 [2] 贷款期限对成本的影响 - 15年期抵押贷款利率较30年期更低 但月供更高 40万美元贷款30年期6.16%利率月供2,440美元 总利息478,221美元 [6][7] - 相同贷款金额15年期5.46%利率月供3,260美元 总利息仅188,773美元 长期可节省利息支出 [7] - 30年期贷款可通过额外还款缩短期限 降低总利息成本 [8] 利率类型特征比较 - 固定利率抵押贷款利率从首日起锁定 再融资时获得新利率 [9] - 可调整利率抵押贷款初始固定期后利率每年调整 7/1 ARM前七年利率锁定 之后每年变化 [10] - ARM初始利率有时低于固定利率 但近期起始利率高于固定利率 且利率调整后存在上升风险 [11] 利率走势预测 - 经济学家预计2025年底前抵押利率不会大幅下降 即使9月美联储降息 其他金融因素可能维持利率稳定 [11][16] - 2026年抵押利率可能小幅下降 具体取决于经济状况、通胀水平和美联储政策 任何降幅可能相对较小 [17] - 2024年8月初至9月18日美联储会议期间抵押利率呈下降趋势 随后基本保持稳定或上升 [12]

Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of 'stagflation' (economic stagnation coupled with inflation) Inverted Yield Curve An inverted yield curve is when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than their shorter term counterparts. The next chart displays the latest 10-2 spread. Typically, the spread turns negative for a period before rising again prior to recessions, as illustrated in the four recessions shown on this chart. For ...

Find out which banks are offering the best MMA rates right now. As interest rates continue to fall following the Fed’s recent rate cuts, it’s more important than ever to ensure you’re earning a competitive rate on your savings. One option you may want to consider is a money market account (MMA). Wondering where the top money market account rates can be found today? Here’s what you need to know. Where to find the best money market account rates today From a historical perspective, money market account in ...

行业与公司 - 行业：宏观经济与货币政策 - 公司：美联储（FOMC）及相关经济分析机构[1][2][7] 核心观点与论据 1. **通胀与就业风险权衡** - 多数FOMC参与者认为通胀上行风险大于就业下行风险[1][2] - 7月会议时3个月平均非农就业增长为150k，但后续修正后降至35k[2] - 少数参与者（如Bowman和Waller）认为就业下行风险更突出[2] 2. **关税对通胀的影响** - 参与者对关税传导至价格的"时机、幅度和持续性"存在分歧[3] - 部分观点： - 外国出口商仅承担少量关税成本[3] - 企业可能逐步将关税成本转嫁给终端消费者[3] - 部分企业因终端需求疲软暂未提价[3] - 美联储不应等待关税对通胀影响完全明确后再调整政策[3][7] 3. **利率水平评估** - 数名参与者认为联邦基金利率"可能接近中性水平"[1][7] 4. **劳动力市场与经济增长** - 经济处于或接近充分就业状态，失业率保持低位[7] - 移民减少导致就业增长放缓，但不一定反映经济疲软[7] 5. **美联储经济预测** - 2025年上半年数据弱于预期，但关税对价格影响延迟且小于此前假设[7] - 通胀预测较6月会议"略低"，因关税传导效应下调[7] - 仍存在通胀上行风险和增长下行风险[7] 其他重要内容 1. **货币政策工具与流动性** - 资产负债表缩减进展顺利，准备金充足[8] - 债务上限解决后财政部一般账户（TGA）重建可能对货币市场造成压力[8] - 常备回购工具（SRF）的中央清算可提升流动性供应效率[8] 2. **政策框架修订** - FOMC接近完成政策声明修订，可能回归"双向偏离"就业目标和灵活通胀目标制（非平均通胀目标）[9] 数据与单位 - 非农就业增长：3个月平均值从150k（7月会议时）修正至35k[2] - 时间节点：7月会议（7月29-30日）早于弱于预期的7月就业报告发布[1][2] 忽略内容 - 分析师联系方式、免责声明、监管披露等合规性内容（如文档4-6、10-35）未纳入分析

Many factors influence the interest rate you get on a mortgage loan, including your credit history, income, the amount you borrow, and the size of your down payment. Average loan rates across the country also play a role — and those tend to rise and fall with inflation. Even the most well-qualified borrowers could receive a higher interest rate during periods of high inflation. To be clear: Inflation doesn’t directly impact mortgage interest rates, but the two are related. Understanding how inflation affe ...

Ever wonder why mortgage rates fluctuate or why saving for a big purchase sometimes feels harder than it should? You can thank, at least in part, a group of policymakers at the U.S. central bank known as the Federal Open Market Committee (or FOMC for short). This committee’s decisions affect everything from the cost of borrowing, the value of your savings, and even the stability of your job. Here’s a closer look at what the FOMC does, why, and how it impacts your finances. What is the Federal Open Mark ...

Many factors impact the cost of owning a home, such as your mortgage principal, property tax bill, homeowners insurance premium, and — this is a big one — your mortgage interest rate. When you understand how your mortgage rate is determined, you can better prepare yourself to buy or refinance a home. Learn more: How mortgage interest works In this article: What is a mortgage interest rate, and why does it matter? Your mortgage interest rate is the price your mortgage lender charges to issue your home l ...