投资策略 - 在股票处于历史高位时 莱尔德诺顿公司的Ron Albahary正倾向于采取对冲波动性的策略 [1] - 当前对冲成本处于较低水平 为实施对冲策略提供了有利条件 [1]

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Hoping that mortgage rates will keep dropping following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut since last year? Don't bank on it. As expected, the central bank delivered a quarter-point cut Wednesday and projected it would lower its benchmark rate twice more this year, reflecting growing concern over the U.S. job market. Here's a look at factors that determine mortgage rates and what the Fed's latest move means for the housing market: How rate cuts affect mortgage rates Mortgage rates ...

A tug-of-war has erupted in the $29 trillion Treasury market between investors who worry that cracks in the labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to dramatically cut interest rates and those who fear that the central bank's fight against inflation isn't yet won. ...

抵押贷款利率预测模型 - 抵押贷款利率与10年期国债收益率高度相关 基于10年期收益率相关性构建五年期抵押贷款利率预测模型 [1] - 10年期国债收益率与30年期固定抵押贷款利率之间存在利差 近年利差在25个百分点左右波动 而2010-2020年期间利差通常低于2个百分点 经常接近15个百分点 [5][6] 国债收益率前景预测 - 德勤全球经济学家预测10年期国债收益率将在2024年剩余时间徘徊在45%附近 2026年开始缓慢下降至2027年的41% 并维持至2029年底 [3][4] - 高盛分析师同样预测10年期国债收益率将在2027年前保持在41%附近 [4] - 美国国会预算办公室(CBO)预测国债收益率2025年底达41% 2026年降至40% 2029年前维持在39%左右 [5] 抵押贷款利率具体预测值 - 基于25个百分点利差测算 当10年期国债利率为4%时 抵押贷款利率为65% [6] - 实际案例显示 9月11日10年期国债收益率401%时 30年期固定抵押利率为635% 利差为234个百分点 [6] - GPT-5人工智能建议使用21-23个百分点的利差范围 基于历史标准(2010年代)约17个百分点 近年(2022-2025年)约26个百分点的数据 [6][12] - 综合预测显示2027年抵押贷款利率将在62%-64%区间 [9] 预测模型潜在变量 - 10年期国债表现可能超出或低于预测 经济严重衰退可能导致收益率暴跌 [13] - 国债与抵押贷款利率之间的利差可能收窄或大幅扩大 [13] - 美联储驱动的货币政策可能发生重大变化 [13] 历史极端利率背景 - 未来五年预测中未出现3%抵押贷款利率的预期 [8] - 2007年时难以预见后续出现的超低住房贷款利率 重大经济衰退和全球疫情等黑天鹅事件是推动抵押利率降至极低水平的关键因素 [8]

With the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year on Sept. 17 — and the expectation of two more by the end of the year — where are mortgage rates heading long-term? Mortgage interest rates are determined by many factors, not just the fed funds rate. A primary factor is the 10-year Treasury yield. At Yahoo Finance, we’ve designed a five-year mortgage rate forecast, built on a 10-year yield correlation, that provides some insight. Read more: The best mortgage lenders right now Mortgage rates ...