The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.50%.  The dollar moved higher Thursday on positive carryover from Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said higher goods prices are feeding through to inflation and that the FOMC expects inflation to continue to build into next year, which may limit how much more the Fed can cut interest rates.  The dollar added to its gains Thursday after T-note yields rose when US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, and the Sep Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.57%.  The dollar is climbing today on positive carryover from Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said higher goods prices are feeding through to inflation and that the FOMC expects inflation to continue to build into next year, which may limit how much more the Fed can cut interest rates.  The dollar added to its gains today after T-note yields rose when US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected, and the Sep Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose more t ...

After a lengthy pause, the Federal Reserve on Sept. 17 announced a quarter percentage point cut to its benchmark interest rate. Economists say it is likely the first in a series of reductions that should make borrowing more accessible for consumers. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the reduction as “a risk-management cut” against the growing downside risks to employment. But with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target – typically justification to raise rates or keep them steady – Powell acknowledged t ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday rose by +0.22%.  The dollar whipsawed higher on Wednesday after recovering from a 3.5-year low.  The dollar initially retreated on Wednesday after the FOMC cut interest rates by -25 bp and signaled another -50 bp of rate cuts by year's end.  However, the dollar recovered its losses and turned higher on hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said higher goods prices are feeding through to inflation and that the FOMC expects inflation to continue to build into next ...

Let's start with Lisa Cook. She's involved in this Fed decision, and yet the president still seems to be trying to get her off the Fed. How is that happening and how might still some legal actions impact anything she does at this Fed meeting. Well, it doesn't look like anything's going to impact what she does at this Fed meeting because she's already there.And we have not heard that the White House has actually filed its appeal to the Supreme Court. So we're not expecting any immediate moves from the justic ...

Fed's going to kick off its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. Joining us now, former Federal Reserve Board nominee, Judy Shelton. She's a senior fellow at the Independent Institute and a former economic adviser to President Trump in his first term.It's good to see you, Judy. It's been a while. Uh it's I'm reading one of your opeds from right when the election happened and you said, "Now that Donald Trump is the president-elect, expect warnings about the dangers of compromising the independence of the Federal ...

贸易政策对市场的影响 - 2025年4月2日宣布对所有进口商品征收10%关税后 标普500期货下跌39% 纳斯达克100期货下跌47% 道指期货下跌27% [3] - 随后两个交易日(4月3-4日)道指暴跌4000点(跌幅948%) 标普500下跌10% 纳斯达克下跌11% 市值蒸发66万亿美元 [4] - 2025年7月9日宣布对进口铜征收50%关税后 纽约铜期货暴涨135%至每磅57美元历史新高 国内矿商Freeport-McMoRan股价上涨超过25% [8] 科技行业受冲击情况 - 苹果公司在2025年4月2日关税宣布后股价立即下跌6% 5月23日因特朗普威胁对iPhone征收25%关税又下跌27% [5] - 2025年9月宣布对进口半导体征收"相当大幅"关税 德州仪器尽管盈利良好但在三个月内股价下跌近10% [7] - 苹果公司预计2025年第三财季将承担超过10亿美元关税成本 但为保持竞争力未提高新iPhone售价 [5] 制药行业表现 - 特朗普威胁对药品进口征收高达200%关税 导致制药行业2025年上半年表现疲软 [6] - Y&P美国生物制药指数仅微涨005% 而Y&P通用制药指数暴跌191% [6] - 礼来公司公开反对拟议关税 担忧会增加成本并限制患者获取药物 [6] 美联储政策预期 - 2025年9月12日标普500 道指和纳斯达克100均创历史新高 因市场预期美联储降息 [11] - 降息预期源于弱于预期的8月CPI数据和意外上升的失业救济申请 [11] - 尽管特朗普挑战美联储独立性引发初期市场波动 但货币宽松预期最终推动市场上涨 [11]

美联储主席继任进程 - 美国财政部长斯科特·本森正扩大美联储主席鲍威尔继任者候选人名单 近期与三位前美联储官员拉里·林赛、吉姆·布拉德和凯文·沃什会面[2] - 目前有10-11名候选人在考虑范围内 面试过程将持续数月[2][9] - 特朗普政府寻求兼具资深履历和市场公信力 同时支持总统货币政策导向的候选人[10][11][14] 货币政策导向 - 美联储预计下周降息 为遴选过程提供缓冲时间[3] - 新主席可能重新思考美联储运作方式 包括创新使用资产负债表工具（如"扭转操作"）维持长期较低收益率[17] - 政府倾向选择"改革者" 推动美联储结构改革并保持政策独立性[12][14] 通胀认知差异 - 华尔街与普通消费者对通胀感受存在显著分歧 咖啡价格年增20%等高频消费项目塑造民众通胀观感[4][6] - 最新CPI显示水果蔬菜价格大幅上涨 但除高端家居品牌外整体销售未出现断崖式下跌[8] - 55%美国民众表示关税未影响购买决策 37%人群仍受关税影响[21] 政治影响因素 - 本届政府更积极贯彻总统意图 不同于上届政府存在内部制衡机制[13] - 候选人遴选过程被部分视为向美联储施压的策略 最终可能选择克里斯托弗·沃勒或"双凯文"之一[15][16] - 存在重复拜登政府经济表述与民众实际体验脱节的风险 特别是在劳动力市场数据和食品汽油价格上涨方面[19][20]

通胀趋势 - 服务业通胀持续顽固 推动整体数据增长0.4% [2][4] - 食品价格指数上涨1% 居住成本指数上升0.4% [18] - 机票价格大幅上涨5.9% 反映需求旺盛 [21] 美联储政策 - 预计9月将降息25个基点 但后续降息路径存在不确定性 [3][8][13] - 美联储面临双重使命冲突：通胀上行风险与就业下行风险 [8][9][16] - 市场预期明年联邦基金利率低于3% 但分析师认为存在通胀风险溢价 [14][30] 就业市场 - 上周首次申领失业救济人数达26.3万人 创2021年以来新高 [10] - 失业率4.3%接近长期预期水平 但工资增长放缓 [16][27] - 家庭调查显示就业市场前景趋于悲观 [26] 收益率曲线 - 10年期国债收益率难以下行 可能维持区间波动甚至小幅上升 [29][32] - 长期收益率受通胀预期和财政担忧影响 抵押贷款利率难以下降 [30][34] - 收益率曲线呈现熊陡趋势 前端下降而长端上升 [37][38] 经济分化 - 低收入群体承受食品和居住成本上涨压力 而股市创纪录高位带来财富效应 [18][19] - 美国经济呈现K型分化 政策制定面临不平等挑战 [19][20] 美联储独立性 - 美联储独立性受到侵蚀 市场认为有效通胀目标可能升至3% [37][39][44] - 丽莎·库克案件进展可能影响货币政策与政治干预的隔离程度 [41] - 通胀预期管理面临挑战 央行信誉对政策效果至关重要 [42][43]

Key Takeaways Wall Street eyes defensive stocks as September has historically delivered market declines.Concerns include tariff legality, Fed independence challenges, and rate cut uncertainty.AIZ, HAS, MOS, VIRT and HLI offer growth, dividends, and low volatility profiles.Wall Street has maintained its bull run in 2025 after an impressive rally in the last two years. U.S. stock markets ended August on a solid note. Year to date, the broad-market index — the S&P 500 — recorded 20 all-time highs, of which fiv ...