货币政策立场 - 美联储官员认为当前货币政策过于紧缩 且紧缩程度正在每日加剧 主要基于中性利率已从去年高位下降的判断[10][11] - 主张应快速降息至中性水平 建议通过连续50个基点的降息方式实现政策正常化[21][22] - 政策维持过度紧缩的时间越长 经济下行风险和失业率上升风险就越大[12][24] 中性利率分析 - 中性利率在去年因财政政策推高净国民借贷和移民政策带来人口正增长而处于高位[8][9] - 当前人口增长已转为负向冲击 结合财政政策变化导致中性利率下降[9][10] - 人口增长率变化通过影响住房供需和资本税率等渠道传导至中性利率[9][32] 经济结构变化 - 财政政策通过降低国民储蓄率和改变净借贷水平影响经济基本结构[9] - 移民政策转变导致人口增长率出现代际最大正负转换 速度远超历史正常变化节奏[9] - 监管环境变化通过降低企业运营成本产生反通胀效应 同时影响资产市场表现[18] 通胀判断框架 - 判断通胀持续性需分析驱动因素性质 而非单纯关注高于目标水平的持续时间[26][27] - 财政 mandated 的价格变化（如增值税调整）不应引发货币政策响应 因其不反映经济供需平衡的根本变化[29] - 住房市场通胀压力直接受人口增长率与住房供给增速相对变化影响 存在1:1的弹性关系[32][33] 金融条件解读 - 不能将金融资产价格变化全部归因于货币政策 需区分税收政策、监管环境等非货币因素的影响[16][17] - 住房市场金融条件与其他金融市场出现分化 表明金融条件并非普遍宽松[15] - 同时推动供给和需求的政策变化不会改变产出缺口 因此不需要货币政策响应[19][20] 政策应对逻辑 - 建议提前采取预防性降息 而非等待经济明显恶化再行动 以避免就业市场出现重大下行风险[23][24] - 政策调整速度分歧源于对中性利率下降速度和政策限制性程度判断的差异[5][6] - 若通胀回升需区分是持续性需求冲击还是暂时性税收政策变化 后者不应改变政策路径[28][29]

U.S. stock futures are trading mixed on Thursday, September 25, 2025, as investors digest a flurry of economic data and brace for remarks from multiple Federal Reserve officials. The cautious sentiment follows two consecutive days of declines for the major U.S. indexes, driven by profit-taking in technology stocks and concerns over valuations.Premarket Trading Activity and Futures MovementsAs of early Thursday, futures tied to the S&P 500 (SPX) are slightly down by approximately 0.18% to 0.4%, while Nasdaq ...

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said on Thursday that last week’s central bank interest-rate cut was needed to help ensure that the job market remains in a good place. While the economy is currently in a pretty good spot relative to the Fed’s inflation and job goals, “some recent data suggests a growing risk that the labor market may weaken more substantially or abruptly than I had been anticipating,” Schmid said in the text of a speech prepared ...

With recession threats rising and tariffs beginning to settle into the bottom line, retailers are expected to sharply reduce their seasonal hiring plans in the fourth quarter, reducing the anticipated number to its lowest level in 16 years. A report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas predicts employers will add less than half a million jobs in the fourth quarter. Last year that number was 543,000. “Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflation ...

SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's central bank projected on Thursday that inflation will hover near the official goal in the first quarter of 2028, but still fail to meet it, according to the bank's latest quarterly monetary policy report. After projecting earlier this month annual inflation at 3.4% for the first quarter of 2027, the relevant horizon for policy decisions, policymakers unveiled a 3.1% forecast for the first quarter of 2028, the final period covered by the report. The bank targets inflation ...

BREAKING: Inflation Data Cements Rate Cut Expectations Retirement readiness is a fuzzy concept — no matter the size of a nest egg. People face one nagging question: "How do I really know when I'm financially ready to retire?" It's tough to answer as there's no single solution. "I don't know if there's a magic bullet answer," said Judith Ward, a thought leadership director at T. Rowe Price (TROW). No doubt, figuring out if your money will outlive you is the math problem of the 401(k) age. Everyone's computat ...

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks have hit a string of record highs with minimal turbulence over the past few months, but investors say the rally could be undermined by persistently high inflation, possible earnings disappointments and elevated valuations. The S&P 500 has posted 25 record closing highs over the past three months and the benchmark index is approaching a third anniversary of a bull market that began on October 12, 2022. Stocks shook off fears that President Donald Trump ...

Americans are feeling more optimistic about their chances of a secure retirement — a lot more. A new study from Natixis Investment Managers shows the number of U.S. investors who believe it will “take a miracle” to achieve retirement security dropped to 21% in 2025, a major change from 39% in 2023 [1]. Must Read This big swing in attitude is largely attributed to the excellent performance of the stock market lately. The S&P 500 has delivered two back-to-back years of returns over 20%, outpacing its hi ...

Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, pictured going for a run on Wednesday, has few options to restore confidence in her economic management - Jeremy Selwyn Rachel Reeves is under growing pressure to break one of her most high-profile promises: not to increase income tax. Faced with a struggling economy, painfully high borrowing costs and disappointing tax receipts, the Chancellor needs to find tens of billions of pounds to get her financial plans back on track. There is no easy, painless and popular way to ...

MPC member Megan Greene has warned that green policies are likely to push up inflation for the next two to three years - Betty Laura Zapata/Bloomberg Britain’s net zero push risks fuelling inflation over the next few years, a leading Bank of England official has warned. Megan Greene, a member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said green policies were likely to push up inflation for the next two to three years. Ms Greene warned that carbon pricing, where power plants pay for each tonne of ca ...