欧盟2035年禁售燃油车政策调整 - 欧盟委员会软化其原定于2035年全面禁售燃油车的计划 修订后的计划允许10%的新车销售为混合动力或其他车辆 前提是制造商购买碳抵消额度进行补偿[1][2] - 政策调整是更广泛的“汽车一揽子计划”的一部分 旨在帮助欧洲汽车产业实现清洁与竞争力并存[2] - 政策转变仍需欧洲议会批准 此举可能满足传统汽车制造商要求更多时间过渡的诉求[3] 行业内部的分歧与立场 - 传统欧洲汽车制造商正努力与特斯拉及来自中国的平价电动汽车竞争 政策调整可能为其争取转型时间[3] - 以沃尔沃为代表的部分汽车制造商反对妥协长期承诺 警告这可能损害欧洲未来多年的竞争力 并呼吁增加充电基础设施投资而非推迟禁令[6] - 电动汽车初创公司及其投资者对政策变化存在分歧 部分人士联名致信欧盟委员会主席 呼吁坚持原定的2035年零排放目标[4] 政策调整的潜在影响与担忧 - 批评者担忧政策软化可能延缓规模化进程、削弱学习曲线效应 并最终导致欧洲丧失产业领导地位而非保持它[7] - 传统汽车行业代表了欧盟总就业的6.1% 其施加的压力对政策调整产生了影响[5] - 有观点认为 若欧洲不以清晰、雄心勃勃的政策信号参与竞争 将失去在电动汽车这一全球重要产业中的领导地位及随之而来的经济利益[4]

涉及的行业与公司 * **行业**：亚洲石油与天然气行业，特别是中国天然气市场、全球液化天然气市场 [1] * **公司**：ENN能源、昆仑能源、中国石油、GAIL [5][10][11] 核心观点与论据 中国天然气需求增长放缓，峰值可能提前 * 天然气需求增速可能低于GDP增速，原因包括电气化转型以及煤改气进程已达顶峰 [2] * 预计中国天然气需求将在2035年达到峰值，年需求量约为5630亿立方米，这比中国国有油气巨头预测的约6200亿立方米峰值早5年 [2][25][26] * 2025年天然气表观消费量同比下降0.3%，主要受玻璃、陶瓷制造及出口导向型行业需求疲软拖累 [16] * 预计2025年整体天然气需求增长1%，2026-2030年增长3-4%，主要由燃气电厂调峰需求驱动 [24] * 工业燃料需求预计在2025年同比下降2%，2026-2030年温和增长2-4% [23] * 长期看，工业需求将逐渐被电力和氢等绿色燃料替代，燃气发电也将受到可再生能源加储能发展的挤压 [24] 俄罗斯管道气进口将大幅增加，带来供应过剩风险 * 预计到2035年，俄罗斯每年可向中国输送680亿立方米天然气，较2024年的420亿立方米增长62%，届时将占中国进口总量的26% [3] * 西伯利亚力量2号管道签署了具有法律约束力的建设备忘录，设计年产能500亿立方米 [13] * 若西伯利亚力量1号、远东线及西伯利亚力量2号等项目全部完成并充分利用，俄罗斯管道气进口能力将从目前的380亿立方米/年增至1060亿立方米/年 [14] * 西伯利亚力量2号若满负荷运行，相当于3700万吨/年的液化天然气进口量，约占中国2035年液化天然气进口量的22%，可能对价格构成下行压力 [4] 全球液化天然气市场面临供应过剩，价格承压 * 全球液化天然气市场可能在2026年及以后出现供应过剩，导致价格趋缓 [2] * 预计2025年液化天然气供应增量2300万吨/年，2026年3000万吨/年，2027年4200万吨/年 [63] * 到2030年，全球液化天然气供应量预计将接近6亿吨/年，较2024年约4亿吨/年的水平增长近50% [67] * 供应过剩可能持续至下一个十年 [68] 下游公用事业和基础设施运营商有望受益 * 天然气供应更加充足可能降低下游公用事业公司的投入成本，从而通过替代燃料的竞争力改善利润率/销量 [5] * 基于更低的债务成本假设，将ENN的目标价从74港元上调至79港元 [5][75] * 继续看好ENN和昆仑能源，预计两者都将报告优质和正向的自由现金流，以支持股息增加和/或并购作为催化剂 [5] * 上游方面，预计中国石油将通过俄罗斯管道获得可负担的天然气供应而受益 [5] * 作为印度主导的天然气传输网络和液化天然气再气化终端运营商，GAIL也可能从更高的利用率中受益 [5] 其他重要内容 中国天然气供需平衡情景分析 * **基准情景**：预计中国在2030年前签订了过多的长期液化天然气购销协议，但在2030年代初需要额外的现货液化天然气进口，以填补早期签订的购销协议到期后的缺口 [45] * **风险情景**：若天然气需求弱于预期，同时西伯利亚力量2号和中亚D线管道投产快于预期，则对现货液化天然气进口的需求可能完全消失，给区域市场价格带来下行压力 [45][51] * 中国管道气进口总能力（运营、在建或谈判中）为2030亿立方米/年，但约50%的能力仍存在不确定性 [39][43] 绿色能源发展对天然气需求的替代效应 * 预计到2030年，中国绿色氢产量可能超过300万吨/年，绿色甲醇需求到2028年可能增至700万吨/年 [24] * 按热值计算，这些合计相当于1200万吨/年的液化天然气需求，约占2030年天然气总需求的3% [24] 关键不确定性因素 * 供应侧的关键不确定性包括管道气进口的时间和数量、能源安全以及地缘政治风险 [42] * 西伯利亚力量2号项目的关键合同条款尚未确认，建设可能仍需数年才能开始 [40] * 能源安全考虑可能限制中国对俄罗斯天然气进口的过度依赖 [43] * 地缘政治因素可能影响已签署的液化天然气购销协议的实际交付量 [44] 具体公司投资要点与估值 * **ENN能源**：评级买入，目标价79港元，潜在上涨空间8.9%，市值105.52亿美元，2025年预期市盈率10.9倍，股息率4.4% [11][75][82] * **昆仑能源**：评级买入，目标价9.80港元，潜在上涨空间33.7%，市值81.57亿美元，2025年预期市盈率9.1倍，股息率5.0% [11][106] * **中国石油-H**：评级买入，目标价10.10港元，潜在上涨空间22.3%，市值2438.08亿美元，2025年预期市盈率8.8倍，股息率6.3% [11][92] * **中国石油-A**：评级买入，目标价11.70元人民币，潜在上涨空间21.1%，市值2438.08亿美元，2025年预期市盈率11.4倍，股息率4.9% [11][99] * **GAIL**：评级买入，目标价235印度卢比，潜在上涨空间39.1%，市值123.71亿美元，2026财年预期市盈率13.0倍，股息率3.5% [11][111]

Key Takeaways Subsea7 won an EPCI contract for the Previously Produced Fields offshore Norway, covering subsea development.SUBCY said the contract follows a FEED award, with engineering and project management starting immediately.ConocoPhillips' project will tie back to the Ekofisk Complex, reducing timelines and costs.Subsea7 (SUBCY) has been awarded a contract for the development of the Previously Produced Fields (“PPF”) offshore Norway by ConocoPhillips (COP) . Per the terms of the contract, Subsea7 will ...

Key Takeaways Equinor awarded Odfjell Drilling a contract for the Deepsea Aberdeen to drill an interim scope on the NCS.The deal is set to add about $373M to Odfjell Drilling's firm backlog, with work running from 4Q26 to 1Q29.Deepsea Aberdeen is built for harsh conditions, featuring a dual derrick system and enhanced GVA7500 design.Equinor ASA (EQNR) , a Norwegian integrated energy company, has awarded a contract to Odfjell Drilling, an offshore drilling contractor, for its Deepsea Aberdeen drillship for w ...

"CRC's leadership in pursuing lower-carbon operations shows what's possible when renewable energy developers and traditional energy producers work together." David Field, CEO of Luminia Post this By delivering on-site renewable generation, the projects aim to reduce energy costs for CRC's field operations, reduce carbon emissions from energy production and intermittently offset up to 30 MW of daytime grid load, reducing the amount of power drawn from the grid during peak hours. "These projects reflect our ...

Key Takeaways Copper prices hit a record $5.96/lb in July and are up 35.8% this year on strong U.S. and China demand.Supply fears from mine disruptions and slow project timelines are fueling expectations for higher prices.SCCO, TECK and BHP are positioned to benefit as the energy transition trend drive long-term copper demand.Copper prices have lately demonstrated renewed momentum and are heading into 2026 with stronger price expectations, supported by tightening global supply, lingering uncertainty around ...

VALLOUREC AND GEOSTOCK SIGN A PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT TO ACCELERATE LARGE-SCALE STORAGE SOLUTIONS FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION Meudon, December 18, 2025 – Vallourec, a world leader in premium seamless tubular solutions, and Geostock, a global specialist in underground storage of energy, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to strengthen their collaboration in developing the infrastructure required for the energy transition, particularly for hydrogen and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCU ...

Key Points SES AI plans to aggressively expand battery capacity in Korea. Its target market is drone buyers from the U.S. and Europe. 10 stocks we like better than Ses Ai › Shares of SES AI (NYSE: SES) jumped 13.7% in early Thursday trading after the developer of artificial intelligence (AI)-enhanced lithium-ion batteries announced a big collaboration in Korea. Image source: Getty Images. A massive drone deal Lithium-metal and lithium-ion batteries are not new, but SES AI uses AI to discover new ...

Estimated nuclear generation in France EDF shares its estimates of nuclear generation in France for the next three years. The estimate of nuclear power generation in France for 2026 and 2027 remains unchanged at 350-370TWh(1). EDF nuclear generation in France for 2028 is estimated between 345-375TWh(1). This estimate includes increased uncertainties on the evolution of demand and anticipation of modulation of the nuclear reactors. This nuclear power generation estimate is based on a substantial maintenance ...

EDF shares its forecasted cost estimate of the EPR2 programme for €72.8bn EDF presented to its Board of Directors today the forecasted cost estimate for its programme to build six EPR2 reactors at the Penly, Gravelines and Bugey sites in France. This forecasted cost estimate stands at €72.8bn2020 and will be audited during the first quarter of 2026 by the French Interministerial Delegation for New Nuclear (DINN). The Board of Directors approved a budget of €2.7 billion to for 2026 for the programme. The ...