mezzotint / Shutterstock.com Quick Read Stocks took another beating on Wednesday amid concerns over the AI/Data Center trade. While inflation appears somewhat contained, any spike in the headline number today could send markets lower. Hopes for the “Santa Claus Rally” are diminishing as we enter the home stretch for 2025. If you’re thinking about retiring or know someone who is, there are three quick questions causing many Americans to realize they can retire earlier than expected. take 5 minutes ...

Thinkstock Quick Read The rotation trade had another run on Wall Street Monday, as tech stocks led the selling once again. While the move away from the AI/Data center trade has gained some strength, the reality is that with a likely third year of double-digit gains for the S&P 500, year-end profit taking is also coming in. With a slew of economic data set to come in this week, volatility could rise even  further. If you’re thinking about retiring or know someone who is, there are three quick quest ...

The US oil benchmark fell to its lowest level since February 2021, with traders weighing renewed signs of optimism surrounding a deal to end the war in Ukraine and mixed economic data from China. West Texas Intermediate settled below $57 a barrel in thin trading ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays, sliding as stocks wavered. US negotiators offered more substantial security guarantees to Kyiv in a renewed bid to clinch a deal, though the effort still appeared part of a bid to pressure Ukrainian Pr ...

Chaay_Tee / iStock via Getty Images Quick Read Stocks were hit hard on Friday as the rotation out of the Artificial Intelligence trade continued. Many on Wall Street remain leery of the huge debt being piled up by technology companies. Oracle’s missing expectations are being viewed as the potential tipping point for the AI/Data Center trade. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality. Read more here. Pre-Mar ...

Bloomberg Oil prices edged down in choppy trading, with US crude falling to the lowest since May, as weakness in US equities markets added to bearish sentiment about oversupply. West Texas Intermediate settled below $58 a barrel, the lowest since May, while global benchmark Brent slumped to the weakest in about two months. Diesel futures, which were down about 1.4%, were the biggest drag on the oil complex on Friday, while a selloff in US stocks compounded declines. Most Read from Bloomberg Thin tradi ...

市场整体表现 - 股指期货在收盘前交易表现不一 本周市场波动剧烈[2] - 道琼斯工业平均指数周四创下历史新高 收盘上涨1.34%至48,704点[2] - 标准普尔500指数周四表现稳健 收盘上涨0.12%至6,901点[2] - 纳斯达克综合指数是主要指数中唯一下跌的 收盘下跌0.26%至23,593点 部分原因是甲骨文公司股价受挫[2] - 主要指数包括罗素2000指数均处于或接近历史高位[5] - 标准普尔500指数有望在2025年结束时实现连续第三年两位数涨幅[5] - 预计年底将出现“圣诞老人行情” 投资组合经理会进行“粉饰橱窗”操作 增持一些顶级股票[5] 美联储政策与利率 - 美联储如预期再次降息 并暗示可能在2026年再次降息[2] - 美联储主席鲍威尔周三的预备讲话语气不那么鹰派[3] - 美联储宣布恢复购买短期国债以管理市场流动性 但强调这是技术性调整 而非货币政策立场的改变[3] 国债市场 - 周四国债收益率曲线整体下移 买家回归市场[3] - 30年期长期国债收益率收于4.8%[3] - 基准10年期国债收益率最后报4.16%[3] 科技行业与公司动态 - 甲骨文公司今年股价表现强劲 但因业绩未达预期而遭受重挫[2] - 公司告知华尔街已大幅增加对AI数据中心的支出 但许多投资者认为其转化为利润的过程耗时过长[2] 能源市场 - 周四能源板块价格普遍下跌 两大基准原油和天然气均收低[4] - 供应过剩是数月来该板块疲软的主要原因[4] - 华尔街提及伊拉克恢复生产也是原因之一[4] - 布伦特原油周四收盘下跌1.08%至61.54美元[4] - 西德克萨斯中质原油周四最后报下跌约1%至57.88美元[4] - 天然气价格下跌近8%至4.23美元 尽管库存报告有一定支撑[4] - 温和天气预测和近期需求疲软也给天然气价格带来下行压力 尽管预报本周末将有另一场冬季寒流[4]

美联储利率决议与市场反应 - 美联储如预期降息25个基点 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75% 为2022年底以来最低水平[2][5] - 这是美联储连续第三次降息 旨在支持疲软的就业市场并提振低迷的房屋销售[2] - 美联储主席鲍威尔强调未来利率决策将高度依赖数据 利率目前处于中性区间 需要经济显著恶化(如失业率上升)才能为进一步降息提供理由[2] 股票市场表现 - 主要股指在利率决议后收高 道琼斯工业平均指数领涨 收盘上涨1.05%至48,057点 标准普尔500指数上涨0.67%至6,886点 纳斯达克指数上涨0.33%至23,564点[2] - 盘前股指期货走低 因甲骨文公司令人失望的财报抵消了前一日降息带来的部分涨幅[2] 债券市场动态 - 美联储降息后国债需求强劲 收益率曲线整体下移[3] - 30年期国债收益率收于4.79% 基准10年期国债收益率收于4.16%[3] - 推动国债价格上涨(收益率下降)的因素包括 进一步宽松的信号 经济不确定性下的避险需求 近期拍卖的强劲需求以及通胀放缓预期[3] 能源市场走势 - 能源板块随市场整体上涨 两大原油基准及天然气价格周三大幅走高[4] - 布伦特原油期货收盘上涨1.6%至每桶62.66美元 西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨1.20%至每桶58.95美元[4] - 美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押一艘油轮引发供应担忧[4] - 天然气期货收盘上涨1.29%至每百万英热单位4.63美元 冬季条件及数据中心的新能源需求带来的未来更高需求预期为市场情绪提供支撑[4]

美联储利率决议与市场预期 - 美联储将于今日结束2025年最后一次会议 市场普遍预期将加息25个基点[2] - 交易员担忧可能出现“鹰派降息” 即虽然降息25个基点 但主席鲍威尔的言论可能偏向鹰派 并推迟未来的降息计划[2] - 若凯文·哈塞特成为下任美联储主席 其可能采取更鸽派的立场以支持特朗普总统的降息呼吁[5] 股市与股指期货表现 - 主要股指周二收盘涨跌互现 道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.38% 收于47,560点 标普500指数基本持平 收于6,840点 纳斯达克指数上涨0.13% 收于23,576点[2] - 盘前股指期货交易小幅走低[2] 国债市场动态 - 周二国债收益率曲线表现不一 交易员聚焦美联储利率决议及后续评论[3] - JOLTS职位空缺数据高于预期 受到市场密切关注[3] - 580亿美元的3年期国债拍卖需求强劲 中标收益率低于预期 显示短期债务需求良好[3] - 30年期长期国债收益率收于4.81% 基准10年期国债收益率最后报4.19%[3] 能源市场状况 - 能源类商品价格连续第二日下跌 原因是供应充足以及需求增长放缓的预期[4] - 伊拉克在出口管道泄漏后恢复了巨型西古尔纳-2油田的生产 为全球供应增加约每日46万桶 约占世界产量的0.5%[4] - 布伦特原油最后报62.05美元 下跌0.70% 西德克萨斯中质原油收于58.35美元 下跌0.90%[4] - 天然气价格连续第二日大幅下跌 收于4.56美元 跌幅达7.21% 原因包括持续的获利了结和与天气相关的基本面因素[4]

Oil futures erased earlier declines after US forces intercepted and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, a move that marks a major escalation of tensions between the two countries. West Texas Intermediate traded higher to settle above $58 after earlier dropping as much as 1%. Brent crude settled above $62. Most Read from Bloomberg The seizure may make it much more difficult for Venezuela to send its oil overseas, as other shippers are now likely to be more reluctant to load its ca ...

行业前景与价格预测 - 美国能源信息署预测原油价格到2026年底将比当前水平低约20% [2] - 全球石油库存预计将持续增加至2026年 对油价构成下行压力 [6] - 布伦特原油价格到2026年底目标为每桶55美元 这将比2022年6月每桶118.49美元的高点下跌近54% [6] 市场表现与行业对比 - 能源板块年初至今仅上涨7.21% 在标普500指数11个板块中表现第五差 [4] - 该板块在2024年仅上涨5.7% 在2023年则下跌1.3% [4] - 在过去11年中 这个高度周期性的板块有7次在所有板块中排名倒数第一或第二 [4] 具体资产与基准表现 - 布伦特原油价格在2025年已下跌超过16% [5] - 西德克萨斯中质原油作为美国基准 今年下跌近18% 表现更差 [6] - 能源精选行业SPDR ETF因行业前景黯淡 预计将继续表现不佳 [3][7] 供应基本面 - 行业正面临供应过剩局面 并将持续到2026年 [2] - 持续的供应过剩预计将至少压制2026年上半年的油价 [5]