核心观点 - 尽管比特币ETF和DATs今年有强劲的资金积累，但比特币价格未能吸引前几轮周期中出现的强劲散户参与[1] - 多位知名市场分析师对比特币的短期、中期和长期前景发表了看法[1] 短期前景 - 短期内，比特币可能继续面临复苏困难，这种疲软表现在稳定币储备的下降上[2] - CryptoQuant数据显示，主要交易所的稳定币储备在短短30天内急剧下降，资本流出达到近19亿美元[2] - 作为市场主要流动性场所的币安，其稳定币余额通常反映投资者的购买意愿，但数据显示币安和其他中心化交易所的ERC-20稳定币储备显著下降，这一趋势表明散户投资者正在退出市场[3] - 分析师Darkfost评论称，这表明投资者明显缺乏对即时市场敞口的兴趣，一些投资者选择提取稳定币而非将其留在交易所等待机会，导致比特币短期内缺乏足够的买压，限制了其上行潜力[4] 中期前景 - 中期来看，CryptoQuant创始人Ki Young Ju指出，比特币的链上资本流入正逐渐减弱[5] - 在经历了大约2.5年的持续增长后，已实现市值在过去一个月陷入停滞，该指标基于每枚比特币的最后购买价格衡量总实现市值[5] - 数据显示，基于所有钱包成本基础追踪盈亏的PnL指数信号自2025年初以来一直横盘整理，该指标在年底前已开始呈下降趋势，表明亏损在增加[6] - Ki Young Ju预测，市场情绪的恢复可能需要几个月时间[6] 长期前景 - 长期而言，大多数分析师仍持乐观态度，拥有自1975年经验的老牌交易员Peter Brandt保持看涨立场[7] - Brandt在X上发文指出，比特币在过去15年中经历了五次对数抛物线式上涨，每次之后都出现了至少80%的下跌，他认为当前周期尚未结束[7] - 当被问及潜在底部的时机时，Brandt没有给出具体答案，但他预测下一个牛市峰值可能出现在2029年9月[8]

市场状态与流动性 - 比特币在圣诞节前维持区间震荡，流动性稀薄和年底去风险化操作使交易者离场观望 [1] - 永续合约未平仓量一夜之间大幅减少，比特币减少30亿美元，以太坊减少20亿美元，市场杠杆降低但仍易出现剧烈波动 [1] - 比特币未能突破85,000美元支撑位和93,000美元阻力位之间的盘整，分析师称其为七年来最弱的年终表现 [2] 期权市场动态 - 周五将迎来创纪录的节礼日期权到期，约有30万份比特币期权合约（价值237亿美元）和44.6万份IBIT期权合约到期 [2] - 此次到期合约占Deribit交易所总未平仓合约的50%以上 [3] - 随着现货价格企稳，行权价85,000美元的看跌期权未平仓合约从15,000份降至约12,000份，而行权价100,000美元的看涨期权未平仓合约稳定在17,000份左右，显示对年底反弹的残余乐观情绪 [3] 市场情绪与风险 - 比特币风险逆转指标显示，与过去30天相比，看跌情绪有所缓解，逐渐向10月前的水平正常化 [4] - 12月31日截止日期前的税务亏损收割可能放大短期波动性，因为加密货币投资者可实现亏损并立即重建头寸，不受股票市场的洗售规则限制 [4] - 历史数据显示，假期驱动的价格变动往往会出现均值回归，圣诞节当周的价格走势通常在1月流动性回归后消退 [5] 链上与资金流数据 - 链上数据显示多个指标显示买盘压力减弱，币安期货市场的买入量背离正在下降，类似于2021年周期的结构，即价格持续上涨而交易量持续下降，且这一趋势尚未恢复 [6] - 活跃地址数也急剧下降，表明链上OTC活动和整体市场参与度正在减弱 [6] - 比特币ETF连续三日录得净流出，总额达4.618亿美元，其中贝莱德流出1.736亿美元，富达流出1.703亿美元，反映出年底避险压力加剧 [6]

Bitcoin ( CRYPTO: BTC ) ETFs now hold more than 1.3 million coins, representing roughly 6% of all mined BTC. ...

Spot XRP ETFs in the United States have continued to show strength, clocking $82 million in inflows over the past week. The significance of these net flows is even more pronounced as Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs bled. XRP ETFs Cross $1.2 Billion in AUM Spot XRP ETFs in the US have crossed $1.2 billion in total assets under management (AUM). Since its launch in mid-November, this investment product has seen six weeks of continuous inflows. This shows that the institutional interest remains intact even w ...

Bitcoin and Ethereum grew volatile on Thursday, whipsawing after a widely watched inflation gauge indicated that consumer prices rose less than expected last month. The cryptocurrencies respectively popped as high as $89,000 and $2,980 before U.S. markets opened, as delayed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics edged rate cut hopes higher. However, when the opening bell rang, Bitcoin and Ethereum wavered. As of this writing, Bitcoin had fallen 1.6% over the past week to $88,399, according to CoinGecko. ...

The expectations of a lower US Consumer Price Index reading triggered notable institutional inflows and wild token volatility for the crypto ecosystem. Firstly, US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw a net inflow of $457.3 million on Wednesday, Dec. 17, according to data from Farside. Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT led the inflows, each worth $391.5 million and $111.2 million, respectively. On the other hand, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net outflow of $22.4 million, their fifth-consecut ...

A brief Bitcoin rally to $90,000 early Wednesday sure seemed like a nice confirmation of an incoming Santa rally—but then it took a naughty turn to nearly $85,000. Users on Myriad, a prediction market platform owned by Decrypt parent company Dastan, have started losing faith that BTC will see six figures before it falls to $69,000. Just a day ago, participants in the market thought there was a 69% chance Bitcoin would reclaim $100,000, but that's dropped to 57% as of this writing. And odds of a Santa rall ...

Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle can rest in peace. Investors have long-expected Bitcoin to sing the same song every four years. A halving cuts the rewards for issuing coins, kicking off an explosive price rally and subsequent bull market. Later, when euphoria settles in and traders reckon price will never go down, investors start selling and the price collapses into a bear market. Not anymore, a growing number of analysts say. “The forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the bitcoin halvi ...

核心观点 - 渣打银行大幅下调比特币价格预测 将2026年目标价从30万美元下调至15万美元 反映出机构资金通过ETF流入的速度慢于预期 但长期看涨方向未变 长期目标50万美元推迟至2030年 [1][2][5] 预测调整详情 - **2026年目标价调整**：从30万美元下调至15万美元 下调幅度达50% [1][5] - **预期涨幅变化**：基于当前约8.9万美元的价格 新目标意味着未来一年涨幅为68% 远低于此前预测的237% [1][10] - **长期目标调整**：维持50万美元的长期目标不变 但实现时间点从2026年推迟至2030年 [2][5] 调整原因分析 - **核心原因**：机构通过比特币ETF的购买速度慢于预期 资本流入虽有持续但较为审慎 最初的激增后转为有节制的配置 [2][4][6] - **机构行为模式**：机构投资者（如养老基金、捐赠基金、主权基金）的审批周期长达数个季度甚至数年 他们稳步建立头寸 避免集中入场 不追逐市场动量而是有计划地再平衡 [7][8] - **市场影响**：机构的这种投资方式平滑了价格走势 抑制了早期周期中出现的剧烈垂直上涨 [8] 当前市场状况与展望 - **关键支撑位**：比特币在进入2026年之际 持续守住8.5万美元的关键支撑位 [3] - **ETF持仓规模**：比特币ETF目前持有约1240亿美元的资产 其中机构投资者约占其基础的四分之一（约25%）[5][7] - **市场性质转变**：比特币的上涨路径正变得更缓慢、更广泛、更审慎 机构资金正在取代投机性过剩 [8] - **下调本质**：此次预测下调反映的是实现时间的拉长和节奏的变化 而非对信念的削弱 [2][8]

Bitcoin is headed for its fourth annual decline in its history, falling as much as 5.2% and is now about 7% lower for the year, with volumes low and investors bailing on Bitcoin ETFs. The bear market means Bitcoin has decoupled from stocks, with the S&P 500 closing at a record earlier this month and up 16% for the year, while Bitcoin has struggled to find a footing, indicating traders are staying on the sidelines, at least for now. MARA Chairman & CEO Fred Thiel, however, expects a great performance from B ...