行业与公司 * 纪要主要涉及铜行业 以及相关的矿业公司 包括Freeport McMoRan（Grasberg矿） Ivanhoe Mines（Kamoa Kakula矿） Codelco（El Teniente矿） First Quantum Minerals（Cobre Panama矿） Cochilco[3][4][16] * 报告由摩根士丹利大宗商品策略师和股票分析师团队撰写[5] 核心观点与论据：供应端中断加剧 * 铜供应中断情况严重且遍布全球 YTD（年初至今） disruptions已达到供应量的4.7% 约110万吨 而2024年8月Woodmac报告的统计为3.7% 约90万吨[3][6] * 主要中断事件包括：Freeport的Grasberg矿（77万吨年产量）停产时间远超预期 Ivanhoe因地震事件将Kamoa Kakula矿2025年产量指引下调15.5万吨 Cochilco将智利产量预估下调约8万吨 Codelco的El Teniente矿全面复产时间长于预期 最初预估影响为3.3万吨[3] * 2026年市场本已预期出现短缺 Freeport新的产量指引（下调27万吨 主要集中在2026年上半年）将加剧这一紧张局面[4] * 其他2026年供应风险包括：Ivanhoe将在10月中旬提供2026/27年指引 First Quantum关于Cobre Panama矿（目前模型预估80万吨产量）重启的谈判预计在2025年底或2026年初开始 审计需3-6个月 Cochilco将2026年产量预估从597万吨下调至575万吨[4] * 中国新的废铜政策使废铜使用变得更加困难 进一步加剧了精矿供应紧张[3] 核心观点与论据：需求端存在抵消因素 * 存在需求抵消因素：美国精炼铜进口量已从约4万吨/周放缓至约1.5万吨/周 这将释放更多金属供应给美国以外的市场[13] * 中国显示出价格敏感性 当价格超过10,000美元/吨时 进口套利窗口关闭 洋山溢价下降[1][13] * 中国7月终端需求指标有所放缓[18][20] 核心观点与论据：宏观背景支持价格 * 宏观背景支持金属价格：美元走弱 美联储对通胀容忍度更高并进行预防性降息 市场对中国出台更多刺激措施抱有希望[12][14] * 铜的持仓远未过度 stretched 仍有资金流入空间 LME库存保持低位且期限价差收紧 COMEX铜表现优于LME 可能由宏观投资者资金流入驱动[14] * 综合来看 铜价面临持续的上行风险 预计2025年和2026年的供需平衡将趋紧 除美国外库存处于低位 缓冲有限[15] 其他重要内容：价格表现与预测 * 报告发布当周 铜是基本金属中的佼佼者 COMEX上涨2.7% LME上涨2.2% 主要受Freeport关于Grasberg矿停产时间的新指引驱动[22] * 摩根士丹利的价格预测（2025年7月14日设定）显示 其对铜价持乐观态度 例如COMEX铜价在2025年第三季度预测为5.60美元/磅（12,350美元/吨） 第四季度为5.94美元/磅（13,090美元/吨）[30] * 其他金属方面 贵金属表现强劲 铂金和钯金领涨 黄金和白银涨幅较小 铁矿石保持强势 炼焦煤走低 动力煤区间波动[23][24]

Kenadyr Metals Closes Second Tranche of Subscription Receipt Financing and Announces Upsize to $3,800,000September 26, 2025 4:11 PM EDT | Source: Kenadyr Metals Corp.Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - September 26, 2025) - Kenadyr Metals Corp. (TSXV: KEN.H) (OTC: KNDYF) ("Kenadyr" or the "Corporation") is pleased to announce, further to its news release dated September 15, 2025, the closing of the second tranche of a non-brokered private placement of 1,959,665 subscription receipts ...

TORONTO and BUENOS AIRES, Argentina and  SAN JUAN, Argentina, Sept. 26, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- McEwen Copper Inc. (“McEwen Copper”) is pleased to announce, as communicated by Minister of Economy Luis Caputo in his X account, the approval of Los Azules to participate in Argentina’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), a key policy instrument to promote strategic initiatives that drive the country’s productive development. The Project’s inclusion in the RIGI encompasses an investment of US $2.672 billi ...

Argentina has approved Canadian miner McEwen Copper's $2.7 billion Los Azules copper project in the country for a tax break program known as the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), the nation's economy minister said on Friday. ...

Copper prices are on the rise due to supply issues, primarily stemming from a production stoppage at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the world’s largest copper producers.That scenario should tighten supply for copper at a time when the reddish-brown metal is in massive demand, driving its price even higher. Depending on which analyst you track, copper should rise to somewhere between $10,500-$11,700 per ton, up from $10,300 per ton as of September 25.Demand for copper is already high, especially from ...

On the international picture, he says: “This essentially led the differential between the COMEX [the Commodity Exchange] and the LME [London Metal Exchange] to collapse at the end of July. From a long-term perspective, copper is still a bullish commodity – there are a lot of investment plans being announced in the US and elsewhere to develop it – but that major differential between the LME and the COMEX is not what it was.”Considering the reasons behind the nosedive, Jeffrey Lorch, a partner at McKinsey, ex ...

Image: Freeport-McMoRan Indonesia’s government has reached an agreement with Freeport Indonesia to halt operations at the Grasberg mine to prioritize the search for workers trapped after a recent accident, Reuters reported, citing the country’s mining minister.Two workers have died and five remain missing following a large mudflow earlier this month at the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine.Production at Freeport Indonesia has not resumed since the incident, with the suspension impacting both output and r ...

The Antamina mine in Peru is set to increase its copper production by 20% to 450,000 tonnes (t) in 2026, from an expected 380,000t this year, according to a Bloomberg report. The report quoted Antamina CEO Luis Santivanez as saying that production is expected to stabilise at around 400,000t annually in the years thereafter. With the increased output, Antamina could position itself among Peru's top copper producers, alongside Freeport-McMoran's Cerro Verde and MMG's Las Bambas mines. Additionally, Antami ...

The copper market has been jolted by disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, with ripple effects spreading across supply forecasts and price expectations. With the mine operator declaring force majeure, Goldman Sachs slashed its mine supply outlook for 2025 and 2026, turning a projected surplus into deficit territory.“A prolonged disruption at the Grasberg mine could drive copper prices even higher, while intensifying supply challenges for smelters already facing feedstock shortages,” analysts at ING said ...

The U.S. stock market is experiencing a notable pullback on Thursday, September 25, 2025, with major indexes extending their losses for a third consecutive session. This downturn follows a period of robust performance and record highs earlier in the week, signaling a shift in investor sentiment driven by profit-taking, lingering concerns over equity valuations, and a re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Afternoon trading activity reflects a cautious mood as market participants dig ...