Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data is complicating Wall Street’s hopes for rapid Fed rate cuts. Weekly jobless claims fell, and Q2 GDP grew 3.8%, suggesting resilience even as inflation hovers near 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target. That has pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on tech stocks, with Vanguard’s Kevin Khang warning the path to sustained cuts remains “narrow.” U.S. economic data keeps coming back stronger than expected, and frankly it’s raining on the parade for markets. For the ...

Now, let's turn to financials. They initially popped on the back of the Fed's rate cut, but then came off those gains. Still, financials have been gaining in the past three months, up more than 7%.The gains continue now that we got one rate cut with potentially more on the way. Joining us now is McCrae Sykes, portfolio portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. Mac, welcome.Um, you know, the KRE up there near 65. Can it keep moving higher if we get as many cuts as the Fed governors expect. Well, it was pretty exci ...

PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Why Michael Kramer from Mott Capital Management and Reading The Markets is focused on Fed dot plot, BOJ meeting (0:30). What happens with inflation expectations? (6:15) AI hype, tech stock valuations (9:00). Undervalued names in healthcare (25:30). Metrics for different stocks and sectors and long-term themes (27:50). Transcript Rena Sherbill: Happy to welcome back to Investing Experts, always a pleasure ...

The yield curve will reveal the bond market's confidence in how the U.S. is handling monetary policy. ...

RBC capital markets co-head of global financials research Gerard Cassidy joins us here at Post 9. Uh Gerard, you know they are trading at a book to tangible uh to price to tangible book value of around two times now which is a lot higher than at least I can remember recently. Why isn't that a concern to you in terms of your belief that they can continue to outperform.David, it's it is a higher valuation that we're than we're accustomed to, but I always go back to the early part of 2018 when we had a cyclica ...

uh to the markets and one of the big winners at this hour that would be Tesla CEO Elon Musk and shareholders and the EV maker stock big winners here up 3% at the moment it's in the top three of both the S&P and the NASDAQ. Musk disclosed in a regulatory filing today that he bought 2.5% million shares of Tesla totaling around $1 billion. The stock's been on quite a tear over the past 6 months.It's gone from something like 224 bucks 6 months ago to $48 and change today. That's a 63% pop. It is Musk's first pu ...

Let's just talk about it. Uh it seems like like a lot of investors are kind of waiting for this Fed meeting, but there's also like a slim hope we could see that jumbo cut, a 50 basis point cut. How important is this cut for the markets right now.Well, the market needs this cut just because psychologically if we don't get it, there'll be very a lot of disappointed people. And so, of course, the Fed um I I think is in no has no desire to upset the majority of people who are expecting cuts. So, the vast majori ...

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are cautiously approaching the U.S. Treasury's sale of $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday after an underwhelming auction last month that had some of the weakest demand metrics of 2025, though some believe it could be different this time. The auction size is $3 billion smaller than that in August and could be easier to absorb, which could be an advantage, analysts said. However, the 30-year bond sale comes amid global disdain for the long en ...

行业与公司 * 纪要涉及美国利率市场策略 包括对美联储政策 国债收益率曲线 通胀和资金市场的分析[1] * 纪要由德意志银行证券公司的策略师团队撰写 署名分析师为Matthew Raskin和Steven Zeng[2][6] 核心观点与论据 * 美联储利率：预计到2026年初将累计降息75个基点 使联邦基金利率达到3.5%-3.75%的中性水平 9月会议降息约22个基点的定价是合理的 但终端SOFR利率约3%的定价过高[2] * 久期（收益率）：看空美国利率 建议做空10年期美国国债 目标收益率为4.6% 论据包括负面的供应冲击（更高关税和更低移民） 通胀上升 增长放缓以及期限溢价的结构性上行偏见[3] * 收益率曲线：鹰派的美联储基线预期本身会令收益率曲线趋平 但即期曲线的效应被更高的期限溢价预期所抵消 远期曲线（3年以上）应随着期限溢价上升而变陡[4] * 通胀：未来几个月通胀可能加速 核心商品价格将继续受到关税影响 现货通胀预计将升至3.5% 美元走弱 可能更鸽派的美联储以及缺乏财政紧缩政策带来上行风险 维持做多5y5y美国CPI 目标为260个基点[9] * 资金市场：预计美联储隔夜逆回购（ONRRP）余额在第三季度末将持续降至功能性的零（正常条件下0-300亿美元） SOFR可能升至IORB之上 SOFR-FF利差预计在-4至-6个基点区间内稳定[10] * 互换利差：预计中期和长期SOFR互换利差将小幅走阔 利差曲线变陡（中期和长期表现优于短期） 如果国债被排除在最终SLR规则之外 预计10年期利差将移动至-35bp至-40bp区间 30年期利差在第四季度末升至-70bp附近[8] 其他重要内容 * 美国国债发行：基本情况是财政部在2026年5月的再融资中开始增加名义票息规模 发行量将全线上升 净票息发行量在未来几年达到每年1.6-1.8万亿美元[11] * 美联储量化紧缩（QT）：预计QT将在2026年第一季度末结束 届时准备金将降至略高于“充足”水平（2.7-2.8万亿美元） MBS本金支付可能以每月150-200亿美元的速度再投资于短期国债[12] * SLR改革：认为美联储最近发布的规则制定通知中的基线提案或替代方案1是最有可能的最终SLR规则结果 预计9月或10月初宣布 2026年生效[13][14] * 政治压力：可能导致美联储降息幅度超过经济条件所需 但会推高长期收益率[2] 对更宽松美联储政策的政治压力可能导致即期曲线出现扭曲变陡[4]

行业与公司 - 行业：美国利率市场[1] - 公司：高盛（Goldman Sachs & Co LLC）作为研究发布方[2] 核心观点与论据 利率市场定价动态 - 短期利率定价从鹰派转向鸽派，市场隐含终端利率接近3.00-3.25%（高盛经济学家基线预测）[1] - 当前市场定价仍略偏鹰派（预期年内3次降息），但衰退风险（30%概率）使下行风险更显著[1][8] - 2年期利率预期：若经济恶化，可能加速降息至2.75%以下（1年概率25%，2年概率40%）[8][11] 曲线形态分析 - 收益率曲线中段（5年期）估值过高，2s5s30s利差处于历史极端水平（接近零利率时期）[13][14] - 降息周期前曲线陡化规律：长端（10s30s）提前3个月开始陡化，短端（2s5s）临近降息时陡化[15][18] - 当前曲线陡化驱动因素：降息预期加速（1m/6m1m OIS平坦化）叠加终端利率下修（6m1m/2y1m）[16] 长期利率与风险溢价 - 长期收益率（10年期）偏高，但估值框架显示仍有进一步陡化空间[19] - 期限溢价上升主因债务可持续性担忧，而非周期性对冲需求（股票/债券相关性转负，但国债对冲效果弱于其他久期工具）[20][24] - 高盛年终预测：2年期收益率3.45%，10年期4.2%，即曲线陡化+长端稳定[20] 美联储政策与市场预期 - 市场未充分定价鸽派路径（终端利率未显著低于美联储3%长期预测）[24] - 若经济数据恶化，可能触发更激进降息预期，主导曲线形态变化[24] 其他重要细节 - 图表数据： - 3个月OIS远期曲线显示利率区间2.75%-4.5%（2025年7月-8月）[4][5] - 期权隐含概率显示深度降息（<2.75%）的2年概率从30%升至40%（4月30日 vs. 非农数据后）[12] - 方法论：通过回归分析量化曲线对降息速度、深度及长期利率的敏感性[16][23] 免责声明 - 研究由高盛FICC及股票部门联合发布，含合规披露信息（如分析师持仓限制、投行关系等）[27][29] - 适用范围：专业投资者（部分地区如韩国、新西兰限定）[30][34] 注：文档ID 3/10/17/21/25/44/50为重复文件标识符，未包含实质内容。