Stocks looked set to rise on Friday, with investors now confident the Federal Reserve will have scope to cut interest rates in 2026 following a sharp pullback in November inflation.Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were broadly flat, S&P 500 futures climbed 0.1%, and contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were up 0.2%.The Dow and S&P 500 each snapped four-day losing streaks on Thursday, after the delayed November consumer-price index showed there had been a surprise slowdown in inflatio ...

Welcome back. Stocks are higher after the cooler than expected inflation data this morning. But some questions now being raised about how much we might trust this print.Our Steve Leeman's looking into that. I'm seen the Brucellis response this morning. Uh [laughter] dude, that was one flawed report.>> That's one of my bullet points here, Carl. And you guys were just talking about this stocks loving this cooler than expected inflation report. The bond market and economists highly skeptical with many saying c ...

市场展望与基准情景 - 市场普遍缺乏看空观点 对2026年的展望较为乐观 认为没有太多强有力的看跌理由[2] - 一位分析师提出的基准目标为7500点 看涨目标为8000点[1] 市场轮动与板块表现 - 市场上涨的板块范围正在扩大 这一趋势被认为非常积极 并有望持续到2026年[3] - 存在其他板块步入市场聚光灯下的机会 对市场轮动仅是短期战术性行为的观点持不同意见[4] - 市场轮动趋势有望持续 其他板块可能展现出强劲势头[9] 宏观经济与货币政策 - 美联储的货币政策立场被视为关键 若其降息且经济保持足够强劲 市场的周期性领域将表现良好[5] - 预计美联储在2026年上半年将保持鸽派支持 特别是在1月至5月期间[7][8] - 美联储宣布每月购买400亿美元国债 该计划可能持续到4月中下旬 为市场提供了支撑[8] - 预计2026年上半年美联储仅会降息一次 因为经济增长具有韧性[11] - 即使美联储明年不进一步降息 也不意味着市场灾难 因为这可能表明经济不需要降息[12] - 美联储通过将400亿美元再投资于收益率曲线短端等方式 继续影响金融条件[13] 经济增长与驱动因素 - 第四季度经济增长出现小幅疲软 市场将在上半年消化和反映这一现实[10] - 中期选举前出现财政支持 地缘政治背景和人工智能背景正在推动投资 这对经济和市场是利好消息[11] - 经济在明年有多种途径可以实现稳健增长 即使美联储不再降息[13] 市场情绪与具体预期 - 市场曾普遍预期年底会出现追逐人工智能和大型科技股的热潮 但这一情况可能并未实现[2][3] - 市场目前正在提前布局所谓的“火热运行”经济情景[5][6] - 对2026年的前景持乐观态度[9]

Michael Gray has devoted his career to following the capital markets and managing fixed income assets. He founded Gray Capital Management LLC and before that was Head of Taxable Fixed Income at Fidelity Investments. Michael has an MBA in Finance from Wharton and a BA in Economics from Union College.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, ...

Joining us now for more on the markets and jobs, Joe Mato, president CIO at Newberger Berman. Joe, great to have you with us. Good >> to be here.Thank you. >> Um, it's interesting to get the jobs report now after the Fed decision. How important is this for you.>> I think the data is really important. I think the state of the labor market is one of the critical issues in terms of determining what the Fed path is going to be. And, you know, our sense is you're going to continue to see a grinding, weaker labor ...

It appears the race for the next Fed chair is down to two. While talking to the Wall Street Journal, the president named Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as his top two choices. Policy, policy market, I should say.Poorly market odds had Hassett as the clear front runner. But Warsh is closing the gap considerably. Here with me now is Michael McKee Bloomberg International economics and policy correspondent.And I, I know mystery is a big part of the strategy of this administration, but previously the president sa ...

Well, that's what we're getting. The explanations. It's become a tradition lately for Fed officials to explain as soon as the blackout lifts why they dissented and the blackout has lifted.So we got a few minutes ago Austan Goolsbee, comments from the Chicago Fed saying basically people are telling him inflation worries them more than jobs. Goolsbee said almost all business people and consumers that we have spoken to in the district lately identify prices as the main concern. I remain optimistic that interes ...

US stock futures traded mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq sliding but the Dow poised to bid for another record after a rotation from tech to value names propelled the index to a new all-time high. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) fell roughly 0.6%, continuing a tech slump. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) edged up roughly 0.2%, coming off an almost 650-point gain for the blue-chip gauge. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) dropped 0.2% after ending above 6,900 for the first time on Thursday. I ...

市场整体表现 - 美股周五交易涨跌互现，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.3%，道琼斯工业平均指数小幅上涨超过0.2%，标普500指数下跌约0.1% [1] - 道指在从科技股向价值股的轮动推动下创下历史新高后，有望再次冲击纪录 [1] - 标普500指数在周四首次收于6900点上方 [1] 科技行业动态 - 投资者正从科技股撤出，因对人工智能估值过高的担忧重燃 [2] - 博通在发布财报后股价早盘下跌近8%，尽管其季度盈利超出预期，但未能明确展示AI业务的回报前景，反而引发了对利润率收窄的担忧 [2] - 甲骨文和博通的财报均未能满足华尔街的更高期望 [2] 周期性行业与宏观影响 - 对经济更敏感的周期性股票获得买盘，因美联储实施了年内第三次降息 [3] - 预期的宽松政策伴随着对美国经济增长的乐观情绪上升，有助于推动股市更广泛的看涨情绪 [3] - 华尔街正期待以高位结束周五交易，三大指数均有望实现周度上涨，投资者正在权衡此次降息以及美联储在2026年可能的政策行动 [4] 公司特定事件 - 运动服装制造商Lululemon股价飙升超过12%，因其宣布首席执行官Calvin McDonald将在1月底离职，此前公司经历了一段销售低迷期 [3] 其他资产类别 - 10年期美国国债收益率小幅上升至4.17%以上 [4] - 黄金价格上涨，逼近其在10月创下的历史高点 [4]

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com][Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]Moving the marketThe market was split today: the Dow pushed to fresh highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped early on as renewed worries about pricey tech and AI plays took some air out of yesterday’s Fed-fueled optimism.The rate cut glow from the prior session was still there, but Oracle’s numbers reminded traders that not every big AI story is translating cleanly into earnings just yet.Oracle sank about 13% after missing on revenue ...