Prediction markets are tilting slightly in favor of a government shutdown happening. ...

Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) is among the Renaissance Technologies Portfolio: 10 Biggest Stocks. On September 23, Citigroup lifted the stock’s price target to $135 from $120, while maintaining a Neutral rating for its shares. Citigroup Raises Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD)'s Price Target To $135, Maintains Neutral Rating The firm cited an elevated trading activity behind its adjustment for the stock, but added that it prefers to be on the sidelines until a more attractive entry point for the com ...

Fantasy sports company PrizePicks is entering the prediction market game, after just landing a Futures Commission Merchant, or FCM, license from the National Futures Association. That makes the company the first sports entertainment operator to receive an FCM from the NFA, which allows it to list contracts from licensed prediction markets. It also makes it at least the second major brand in the sports gambling and gaming space next to FanDuel to enter the red hot prediction market biz, which analysts esti ...

All [Music] right, good afternoon and welcome to Asking for a Trend. I'm Miles Upman for the next half hour. We're breaking down the trends today that could move markets tomorrow.With the Fed cutting rates, we're zeroing in on sectors that stand to benefit in this new environment today will give commercial real estate a closer look. Well, Americans are feeling the pinch of higher food costs and food service workers themselves are among those hardest hit. We'll discuss the state of the industry.Plus, how pre ...

事件合约业务增长 - Robinhood事件合约业务加速发展 9月收入年化率超过2亿美元 [1][2] - 合作伙伴Kalshi 9月交易量预计达创纪录的26亿美元 是此前月度高点的两倍以上 受NFL和NCAAF新市场推动 [2] - Robinhood用户占Kalshi日交易量的25%-35% 自NFL和NCAAF赛季开始后占比升至约三分之一 [2][3] 交易量数据 - 第二季度Robinhood用户交易了10亿份合约 相当于Kalshi当季交易量的27% [3] - NCAAF第一周(8月28日至9月1日) Robinhood用户交易了"超过1亿份"合约 相当于Kalshi当周NCAAF交易量的34% [4] - 基于Kalshi 2025年第三季度8,500万份合约的推算量 假设Robinhood占比30% 则对应2,550万份合约 [5] 收入模型 - 每份合约费用为2美分 Robinhood与Kalshi平均分配 [4] - 预计Robinhood 9月事件合约收入达1,750万美元 季度年化率超过1亿美元 [5] - 分析师将公司2025财年每股收益预估从1.50美元上调至1.87美元 [5] 市场表现 - Piper Sandler分析师重申超配评级 将目标价从120美元上调至140美元 [1] - Robinhood股价周二下跌0.43%至124.35美元 [5]

Robinhood was quick to do so, offering Super Bowl derivatives, which were yanked at the request of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A similar fate befell the company during this year's NCAA basketball tournaments, when the brokerage firm pulled event contracts in New Jersey -- one of the top sports betting states.Days before Election Day, Robinhood jumped into the arena, offering approved clients the chance to purchase yes/no contracts. That was a prelude to something bigger. At the compan ...

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack. GM! Today's top news: Crypto majors mostly flat into FOMC, Bitcoin leads +1% to $116,300 Binance in talks with US DOJ to end its compliance monitor Bank of America says 67% of fund managers hold 0 crypto Trump suing NY Times for $15M saying they hurt the TRUMP meme Tether co-founder launches STB ...

经纪行业竞争格局 - 经纪商之间存在激烈竞争 [1] - 行业竞争状况是讨论重点 [1] 预测市场前景 - 预测市场未来展望受到关注 [1] - 行业对预测市场发展前景进行分析 [1]

公司估值与融资 - Polymarket正考虑以90亿美元估值进行交易 较三个月前10亿美元估值大幅增长[1] - 竞争对手Kalshi估值从20亿美元升至50亿美元 显示投资者看好预测市场主流化前景[4] - 公司获得1789 Capital数千万美元投资 特朗普长子加入担任顾问[5] 监管环境变化 - 商品期货交易委员会2021年禁止公司在美国提供预测合约 今年初重新批准国内运营资格[2] - 监管限制放宽为行业增长打开新空间[2] 业务规模与市场地位 - 平台允许用户对政治选举 法院裁决和地缘政治事件进行投注[3] - 仅上次美国选举周期就处理超过80亿美元投注金额[3] - 在线流量已超越体育博彩巨头FanDuel DraftKings和Betfair[3] 行业争议与特性 - 预测市场在华盛顿仍存在争议 批评者认为可能助长错误信息[5] - 支持者认为其提供对政治和全球事件的公众预期透明衡量标准[5]

公司战略转型 - 公司从免佣金交易平台转型为AI驱动的金融超级应用生态系统 旨在实现主流采用和全球扩张 [1][2][13] - 首席执行官将平台定位为综合性金融超级应用 整合交易工具、AI洞察和预测市场功能 [1][3] 产品功能升级 - 推出Robinhood Social内嵌交易社区 支持美国用户实时分享经过验证的股票、期权、期货、加密货币和预测市场交易 [2][3] - 增强Robinhood Legend浏览器平台 为专业用户提供超过40种CME集团期货合约 佣金为0.50美元起 并规避日内交易规则限制 [4] - 新增交易阶梯小部件 支持美股、ETF和加密货币一键交易及盈亏跟踪 立即在美国和英国推出 [5] - 推出AI驱动的自定义指标和扫描工具 允许黄金订阅用户构建个性化市场扫描器 覆盖股票、ETF、加密货币和期货市场 [5] - 扩展移动交易阶梯功能 增加设备联动远程控制 做空交易和隔夜指数期权等专业级工具 [6] 预测市场拓展 - 通过Robinhood Derivatives推出职业和大学美式足球预测市场 覆盖所有NFL常规赛和Power 4大学赛事 [7][9] - 预测市场采用金融工具运作模式 买卖双方动态定价 支持实时头寸调整 日均交易时段为东部时间上午8点至凌晨3点 [8][9] - 自去年推出以来 平台已交易超过20亿份预测市场合约 显示强劲需求 [9] 国际业务推进 - 在美国推出AI投资助手Digests by Robinhood Cortex后 夏季末扩展至英国市场 提供英文新闻摘要和股票走势分析 [10][11] - 该AI工具获得95%美国用户正面评价 认为信息相关且易于使用 [11] 财务表现支撑 - 2025年第二季度业绩显示收入和用户指标稳步增长 托管资产规模随交易量增加而上升 [11][12] - 净利润增长得益于加密货币和衍生品等多元化业务 管理层强调AI和预测市场成为关键增长引擎 [12]