Arthur Hayes just laid out his Bitcoin roadmap for the next three months — and it ends at $200,000. The angel investor and Maelstrom fund CIO published a new essay on Friday, arguing that the Federal Reserve is printing money through a new programme, dubbed Reserve Management Purchases. And once investors realise its effects resemble those of quantitative easing, Bitcoin will explode higher. “As the market equates RMP to QE, Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000,” Hayes ...

Oh, it's fantastic. So average ticket is up 15%. Unprecedented, really.50% rise in the last year, doubled over the last two years, just in the underlying commodities, just in the underlying commodity. And silver and platinum, by the way, have gone up 70% in the last year or so. Pretty phenomenal run.Why is the average ticket then of the items you sell only up 15% when the price of gold is up 50 and silver and platinum are up 60 and 70%. Yeah. So the bulk of the asset value is really in the gemstones and dia ...

When asked about inflation and the future of interest rates, Charlie Munger was frank during the 2022 Daily Journal Corporation’s (NASDAQ:DJCO) annual meeting. As usual, the longtime business partner of Warren Buffett and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK, BRK.B)) kept things honest, blunt, and rooted in history. Munger Warns Of Real Economic Risks When a mechanical engineer from Germany asked whether we could see a major rise in interest rates like we did between 1950 and 1980, Munger ackn ...

比特币近期价格表现 - 比特币价格近期大幅下跌 一度跌至99,000美元 目前交易价格约为103,000美元 [1][2] - 分析师认为短期可能面临更多痛苦 价格可能再次跌破100,000美元 [7] 导致下跌的主要原因 - 宏观流动性环境收紧 美联储持续缩减资产负债表 造成市场普遍避险情绪 [4] - 10月10日的市场暴跌导致加密货币价格全面下挫 市场存在持续性疲软 [3][7] - 美联储在最近FOMC会议上的鹰派言论加剧了避险情绪的升温 [7] - 美国政府的长期停摆促使投资者转向保守 [3] - 科技股遭抛售及人工智能热潮降温 标普500指数与比特币同步回调 [4] 潜在的积极催化剂 - 银行间流动性压力已在回购市场显现 这可能迫使美联储早于预期进行干预并提供流动性 [5] - 若美联储因金融稳定原因早于预期重启货币印刷 将为比特币和加密资产带来显著顺风 [2][6]

比特币价格预测 - 前BitMEX首席执行官Arthur Hayes预测比特币价格将在2028年达到340万美元 [1] - 该预测基于美国财政部可能实施的收益率曲线控制政策 这将引发大规模货币印刷 导致全球货币架构发生百年一遇的改变 [1] 货币政策与信贷扩张 - 预测模型假设美联储将购买50%的新发行国债 同时银行信贷在特朗普剩余任期内扩张7.569万亿美元 [2] - 计算基于到2028年美联储和商业银行信贷增长总额将达到15.229万亿美元 [1] 对美联储的控制策略 - 分析聚焦于通过战略性董事会任命和监管压力来重新控制美联储的计划 [2] - 特朗普团队需要获得美联储理事会四个席位以形成多数 从而通过准备金余额利率机制操纵短期利率 [3] - 已确认的潜在盟友包括理事Bowman和Waller 以及新确认的Stephen Miran 使特朗普阵营拥有三位支持者 [4] 人事变动与法律压力 - 美联储理事Lisa Cook因联邦住房金融局局长的抵押贷款欺诈指控面临越来越大的辞职压力 [4] - 美国司法部正在审查是否寻求大陪审团以银行欺诈罪起诉 预计这将迫使Cook在2026年初离职 [5] - 团队计划在2026年2月的选举中更换美联储地区银行行长 [5] 稳定币与全球银行体系 - Hayes将财政部长称为"Buffalo Bill" 因其预期将拆除欧洲美元银行系统 该策略被比作控制全球约34万亿美元的外国非美元存款 [3] - 政策转变可能通过威胁在未来金融危机中撤回对外国银行的美联储支持 从而引导10-13万亿美元的欧洲美元存款流向合规的稳定币发行商 [6] - 这将迫使欧洲美元储户转向像Tether这样只投资于美国银行存款和国库券的稳定币发行商 [6]