住房市场现状 - 新屋开工年率下降至130万套 远低于经济学家预期[2] - 建筑行业过去四个月出现裁员 加剧失业问题[3] - 美国住房短缺达到470万套的历史新高[8] 房价与收入对比 - 2025年房价中位数416,900美元与收入中位数83,150美元之比达5倍[4] - 1985年房价收入比为3.5倍（房价82,800美元 vs 收入23,620美元）[4] - 经通胀调整后 2024年房价较1965年上涨100%[6][13] 政策应对措施 - 财政部宣布将采取新措施解决住房成本问题[9] - 可能宣布国家住房紧急状态并推出首购补贴 首付援助 简化审批等政策[10] - 联邦土地可能用于新开发项目[10] 利率政策影响 - 美联储预计未来12个月进行4-5次降息[16] - 30年期抵押贷款利率可能从6.26%降至4.5%-5.5%区间[17][18] - 降息可能引发竞价战争并推高房价[19] 投资机会分析 - 建议关注头部建筑商：Lennar/LEN、PulteGroup/PHM、DR Horton/DHI等[12] - 住房科技股推荐：Zillow/Z、Opendoor/OPEN、Compass/COMP、Rocket Mortgage/RKT[12][21] - 政策干预可能引发近二十年来最强的住房繁荣[11] 市场供需矛盾 - 住房可负担性处于历史最低水平[7] - 供应量接近历史低点[7] - 年轻人无力购房 老年业主惜售 新建设跟不上需求[8]

Diana Olick: Willy Walker, CEO of Walker and Dunlop. First of all, I'm thrilled to be sitting down with you, because I've known you for years, but I always have to do these kind of back and forth straight interviews, and never get to just chat with you. So happy to have you here.Also very nervous because you have your own very excellent webcast, which I watch all the time. Huge fan. When did you start doing that.Willy Walker: In the pandemic, Diana. It was 2020, we didn't even it wasn't like something that ...

Tesla surged on CEO Elon Musk 's $1 billion share purchase, Alphabet joined the $3 trillion club, and the communication services sector rose 2.3% - despite Nvidia's lackluster performance on news of China's probe. The sector is now up 27% this year, more than double the S&P 500 index's 12% gain.Whether it be price, valuation, or concentration, investors know there are reasonable grounds to at least be cautious on the U.S. tech/AI boom. But it shows no sign of slowing, far less reversing, and on Monday it br ...